Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Can the Hawks beat the Nuggets tonight on the road and win their fifth straight game?

Dec 8, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) is defended by Denver Nuggets forward Peyton Watson (8) during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks are bringing in the New Year in Denver against the Nuggets. Atlanta is putting their four-game winning streak on the line tonight against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Last month, the Hawks faced the Nuggets and it was one of their worst performences of the season. They were without Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic, but the Hawks did not stand a chance against the Nuggets and lost 141-111 and Jokic had 48 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists. Can the Hawks get a different result tonight on the road?

Ever since losing to the Grizzlies, the Hawks have been playing well, getting wins over Minnesota, Chicago, Miami, and just recently, a blowout win over Toronto. Denver has won their past two games and seven of their last ten games and Jokic is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory. The injury report will be key tonight. The Hawks are listing Trae Young and Dyson Daniels as probable and Bogdan Bogdanovic as doubtful, while the Nuggets will be without Aaron Gordon.

Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 5th in the NBA in PPG, 11th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 25th in turnovers, and 4th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 11th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 7th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 6th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 26th in PPG allowed, 19th in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point attempts allowed, and 29th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 16th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 26th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Offensively, Denver is one of the best teams in the league and one of the toughest to slow down. The Nuggets are currently 3rd in PPG, 2nd in FG%, 30th in 3PA, 4th in 3P%, 1st in FTA, 9th in rebounding, and 16th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Denver is 4th in points per 100 possessions, 3rd in effective field goal percentage, 12th in turnover percentage, 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 5th in free throw rate.

Defensively is where the Nuggets have struggled this season. Denver is 24th in PPG allowed, 18th in FG% allowed, 25th in 3PA allowed, and 13th in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Nuggets are 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 17th in effective field goal percentage.

Trae Young has been playing fantastic as of late and he will need to play better than he did the last time against the Nuggets. Young is coming off of a 34 point and 10 assist game vs the Raptors, a game in which he hit seven threes.

Daniels should be back after missing the last two games and he will be key if the Hawks want to win tonight. Daniels has been one of the premier defensive players in the league and will be guarding Jamal Murray tonight. The Nuggets are elite on the offensive end and the Hawks will need Daniels to disrupt the Murray/Jokic pick and roll tandem.

Zaccharie Risacher is coming off of a 14 point performance in which he shot 5-8 from the floor and that is an encouraging sign for the young rookie. Risacher has struggled shooting from the floor this season, but he is showing improvement and is still a key player on the Hawks defense.

Jalen Johnson has been playing at an All-Star level for the Hawks this year and with the Nuggets missing Gordon (their best defender), he could be in for a big night. Johnson was not at his best on offense against the Raptors, but Atlanta did not need him to be. If they want to win in Denver, they will need a good game from their young star.

Clint Capela is going to have one of the hardest jobs in the world tonight and that is guarding Jokic. There is no way to stop him, but the Hawks have to find a way to minimize his impact on the players around him and Capela will play a large role in that.

With Bogdanovic out, I would expect to see a bench unit of De'Andre Hunter, Okongwu, Vit Krejci,and Garrison Matthews. Since Daniels should be back, I don't know if Keaton Wallace is going to be getting any minutes in the rotation. Hunter has been the NBA's best bench player this season and is averaging 20 PPG on elite shooting numbers. Matthews has been playing fantastic as well with Bogdanovic out, including a 25-point game vs Minnesota last week.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Nuggets are 5.5 point favorites tonight vs Hawks and the total is set at 246.

Predictions

The Hawks have been playing well ever since getting trounced by the Nuggets and I think that Atlanta having Johnson and Denver not having Gordon is going to be a big difference. Denver presents a lot of matchup issues for the Hawks and they have a real home-court advantage, but I think that the Hawks are playing well enough to get a road upset vs Jokic and the Nuggets.

Final Score: Hawks 127, Nuggets 123

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