Despite Their Records, the Hawks and The Kings are not That Dissimilar

Atlanta Hosts Sacramento on Friday night

The Hawks and the Kings are going to meet for the first time this season tomorrow and one team is much higher in the standings than the other. Sacramento is 17-12 and in the top five of the Western Conference, while the Hawks are 12-18 and outside of the playoff picture altogether. When these teams are discussed in trade rumors, the talk around Atlanta is about reshaping their roster and sending big pieces like Dejounte Murray out the door. When the Kings are brought up in trade talks, the discussion is about whether their team should be looking to add to their core and go all in to try and make a big splash. 

But when you look under the hood a little bit, these teams are not all that different and how they do in close games. The Hawks have played in quite a few "clutch" games this season and are 6-13 in those games. The only teams that are worse in that category are the Spurs, the Wizards, and the Pistons, arguably the three worst teams in the NBA. 

Dejounte Murray vs the Pistons / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Both the Kings and the Hawks have two elite offenses led by elite point guards. Trae Young is playing some of the best basketball of his career and just had his streak of seven consecutive games of at least 30 points and 10 assists end. He is second in the NBA in assists, behind Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton, and is shooting the ball much better than he did at the beginning of the year. 

On the other side is De'Aaron Fox, who is one of the most clutch players in the NBA and one of the league's best players in transition. Fox is currently the NBA's 5th leading scorer. Per Cleaning the Glass, Sacramento is 12th in points per 100 possessions, 8th in effective field goal percentage, and 12th in turnover percentage. 

The defense is where many around the NBA have questions about the Kings. Sacramento is 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions and 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Last year, the Kings had one of the best offenses in NBA history, and that made up for their shortcomings on the other end of the floor. This year, their offense is not as good, but their defense is not at the very bottom of the NBA. 

Per Cleaning the Glass Atlanta is 5th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions, 13th in effective field goal percentage, and 13th in turnover percentage. Defensively, they are 26th in points allowed per 10 possessions and 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed. 

Trae Young, Saddiq Bey, and Dejounte Murray vs the Rockets / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Spo

Those numbers are pretty similar, aren't they? 

Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is last in the NBA in win differential. While their record is 12-18, Cleaning the Glass thinks they should be 3.3 wins better based on their efficiency number. 

Guess who is first in win differential? Yes, it is the Kings. 

Sacramento is exactly 3.3 wins worse than their record and given their efficiency ranking, they should have 13 wins per Cleaning the Glass. The difference is that the Kings have been a lot better than the Hawks in some areas, particularly close games and they have a better record. 

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