All Hawks

Hawks Odds of Winning Series Increase After Game Three

The Heat lead the series 2-1.

Pat Benson

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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Last night when the Heat went on a 21-0 run in the third quarter, ESPN gave them a 96% chance of winning the game, which would have resulted in about a 99.9% chance of winning the series.

Somehow, the Hawks weathered the storm and mounted a comeback victory in front of a raucous home crowd. Now that the Hawks have won a game and avoided the dreaded 0-3 deficit, the series takes on a new stage.

Computer models are already taking note of last night's results. While still low, the Hawks chances of winning the series have increased. FiveThirtyEight gives the Hawks a 19% chance of advancing to the second round and a 6% chance of returning to the Eastern Conference Finals. That's up from 12% and 4% following Game Two on Tuesday night.

As I wrote on Wednesday, since 1971, 188 teams have fallen behind 0-2 in the first round of the playoffs, and just 12 have won the series (6.4%). Overall, 7.1% of teams recover from an 0-2 hole. However, the numbers get less optimistic when you factor in seeding.

Only four 8-seeds have defeated the 1-seed in the NBA Playoffs. Only one team, the 1994 Denver Nuggets, came back from 0-2 to upset the 8-seed. That just so happened to be against the Seattle SuperSonics, which Hawks head coach Nate McMillan played for at the time. But remember, that was a best-of-five series.

Tomorrow the Hawks play another must-win game in State Farm Arena. As always, we will have you covered for all of your gameday content tomorrow. Stay locked into Sports Illustrated's AllHawks.com for breaking news, highlights, and analysis.

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Pat Benson
PAT BENSON

Pat Benson covers the Atlanta Hawks for Sports Illustrated's All Hawks. He has covered the NBA for several years and is the author of "Kobe Bryant's Sneaker History (1996-2020)".

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