Hawks vs Bulls: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Can the Hawks find a way to beat the Bulls tonight?

Nov 9, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) passes behind Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

After a dismal performance against the Warriors, the Hawks could really use a rebound performance against the Bulls tonight. The Warriors lept out to a 41-22 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. The Hawks offense no-showed and could not catch up to the Warriors and Atlanta's record dropped to 7-9.

Tonight is not only an important game for their NBA Cup hopes - it is also an opportunity to respond against an opponent that handled them during their last matchup. When these teams played on November 9th, Atlanta was in control for most of the game before Chicago stormed back and won the game due to the Hawks faltering late. The 14-3 scoring run that the Bulls went on ended up winning them the game and sealed a 125-113 loss that was simply hard to watch. In their last meeting, Chicago also won the game largely due to a team-based scoring performance. Their entire starting lineup finished with double-digit points and a positive plus/minus. Ayo Dosomnu also made a massive impact off the bench with 19 points on 7-10 shooting.

Atlanta's inconsistency has been an issue all season. Against Golden State, they had a dismal first quarter. The Hawks shot 35% from the field and 29% from three. Golden State on the other hand was 60% from the field and 46% from three. The bench for the Warriors outscored the Hawks bench 19-3. However, this game was more of a fluke in terms of how bad their start was. That being said, they have consistently struggled in the clutch. This year, they have the 10th-fewest points in the third quarter and the fifth-fewest points in the fourth quarter.

Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 11th in the NBA in PPG, 19th in FG%, 18th in 3PA, 19th in 3P%, 4th in FTA, 25th in turnovers, and 11th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 18th in points per 100 possessions, 19th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in turnover percentage, 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 7th in free throw rate. On defense, they rank 28th in PPG allowed, 15th in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point attempts allowed, and 30th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 26th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Bulls have a pretty simple team profile - they take a lot of threes and make a good amount of threes without standing out much in other areas. They are 10th in PPG, 16th in FG%, 3rd in three attempts, 10th in three point percentage, 25th in free throw attempts, 9th in rebounding, and 21st in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Chicago is 23rd in points per 100 possessions, 12th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 28th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 27th in free throw rate. Defensively, the Bulls are 29th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, 22nd in three point attempts allowed, and 5th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Chicago is 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 23rd in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Even though the Bulls have an exploitable defense, the Hawks are going to need a strong performance from Trae Young to salt this game away early. Young has not really looked like himself as a scorer this year. In his last two games against the Kings and Warriors, he's scored a combined 19 points on 5-19 shooting despite playing 30+ minutes in both games. On the year, he's averaging 21.9 points (his lowest since his rookie year) and shooting a career-worst 34.1% from deep. Fortunately, he is still one of the best playmakers in the NBA and hit double-digit assists in those same games to alleviate some of the effect of his scoring dip. In a game where he has his full rotation avaliable to him, I expect him to continue to shine as a playmaker while taking advantage of the improved spacing.

Despite the loss, Jalen Johnson recorded another double-double (15 points, 14 rebounds) while hitting three of his five attempts from deep. He has been great to open the season for Atlanta and I do think this could be a big game for him. Chicago does not really have a good answer for slowing him down. Torrey Craig is a fine rotation wing, but Johnson should be handily favored in that matchup.

When it comes to slowing down Chicago, Dyson Daniels is likely going to see extensive time on Zach LaVine. It should be a good opportunity for a rebound performance. Although he's had a phenomenal season so far that all but certifies he will end up on an All-Defensive team if healthy, he did not hvae a banner night against the Warriors. Daniels did not have a steal and could not slow down Curry as he put up 23 points and eight assists on 7-10 shooting from the field. Things should be a little easier against LaVine, but not by much. The Bulls' star is coming into the game averaging 22 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists on a staggering 43.2% from deep on eight attempts a game. He has been absolutely incredible from deep this year and Daniels is going to be a massive part of slowing him down.

Big performance from DeAndre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic on offense are going to be central for this rotation to take advantage of a leaky Bulls defense. Bogdanovic has not quite rounded into his form as a lights-out shooter, but tonight is an excellent opportunity to get his three-ball going. Hunter has been excellent as a shooter this season, hitting 38% of his six attempts a night. His length and defensive instincts are also important to Atlanta on the other end of the floor. If both look good against Chicago, I would expect this to be a reasonably straightforward win for the Hawks.

If the Hawks need a spark tonight, I do think this could be a Larry Nance game. He can stretch Vucevic out a bit because he demands attention as a shooter and brings tough rebounding to any lineup he is a part of. Both are going to be helpful against this Bulls team and make it easier for the Hawks to operate.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Atlanta is a 1.5-point favorite over the Bulls tonight and the total is set at 246.

Prediction

The Hawks have a fully healthy team and this is a massive game for their NBA Cup chances. I do think the combination of offensive firepower from Atlanta in Young, Johnson, Bogdanovic and Hunter/Risacher is a pretty big mismatch for Chicago. If Daniels can limit LaVine to under 25 points on bad efficiency, the Bulls are going to have problems. One difference between this game and the last meeting of these teams that I think will matter is the absence of Patrick Williams for Chicago. Without Williams, there is really no consistent defensive option for Johnson and I expect this to be a big game for him. Young will get his assists even if he has another off scoring night, but I would not really expect that trend to continue against an exploitable Chicago defense. The three-point volume of the Bulls is going to be tough to handle and they can certainly get hot, but I think Atlanta still holds the slight advantage. The Warriors ability to shoot well from three and the volume of attempts they take poses a huge threat to the Hawks. Whether it is Curry, Hield, or Brandin Podziemski, they have a deep pool of guys that can get hot against a team that is dead last in three point attempts allowed and three point percentage allowed. For that reason, I think the Hawks will win and I do think they can cover.

Final Prediction: Hawks 122, Bulls 117