Hawks vs Celtics: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Can the Hawks find a way to beat Boston tonight in a big upset?

Feb 7, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) controls the ball while Boston Celtics guard Derrick White (9) defends during the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images / Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks got a much-needed win last night vs New Orleans, but they are going to get a step up in competition tonight when the defending champion Boston Celtics come to State Farm Arena. Last season, the Hawks had two of the biggest upsets of the year when they beat the Celtics twice at home when they were very shorthanded. It is going to be a tall task for the Hawks to do the same tonight, but last season goes to show that it can happen. Boston is also going to be down two of their best players tonight, with Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis both not suiting up.

Our own Rohan Raman gave his preview of the game tonight:

"So far, the Hawks have been one of the better offenses in basketball while struggling on defense. Their defense looked better against the Pelicans, but it's hard to take much away from that given that the Pelicans were down Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, CJ McCollum, and Herb Jones. They also struggled to contain Brandon Ingram, who had 32 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists.

Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 7th in the NBA in PPG, 10th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 12th in 3P%, 3rd in FTA, 23rd in rebounding, and 20th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 6th in points per 100 possessions, 5th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in turnover percentage, 17th offensive rebounding percentage, and 3rd in free throw rate.

Atlanta is 28th in PPG allowed, 14th in field goal percentage allowed, 29th in 3PA allowed, and 30th in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks are 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and 22nd in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Unsurprisingly, Boston is close to the top of the NBA in a lot of statistical categories. They are 1st in points per game, 16th in field goal percentage, 1st in three point attempts, 8th in three point percentage, 11th in free throw attempts, 20th in rebounds, and 13th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics are 1st in points per 100 possessions, 2nd in effective field goal percentage, 3rd in turnover percentage, 15th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 8th in free throw rate.

Defensively, Boston is 13th in PPG allowed, 22nd in field goal percentage allowed, 12th in three point attempts allowed, and 9th in three point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics are 12th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 19th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Celtics are a bit more suspectible on defense and there's some reason to think Atlanta can take advantage. Trae Young is still the primary creator for Atlanta and he did not disappoint, putting up 23 points and 12 assists to pair with four rebounds. He was aided by Jalen Johnson, who turned in his best game of the year against the Pelicans. Johnson finished just shy of a triple-double with 29 pts, 9 rebounds and 8 assists. Especially if the Celtics do not have Jaylen Brown, I think this is an important matchup for Johnson to excel in. Despite getting a healthy dose of Jayson Tatum on defense, Atlanta will likely need to him to have a big scoring game in order to keep pace with Boston's offense.

Dyson Daniels was able to return to the lineup against his old team, the New Orleans Pelicans, and looked great. He put up 16 points, three assists and five rebounds (on 7/10 shooting) while consistently working well within the flow of the offense. Daniels is currently shooting 36.4% from three-point range (easily a career high) and looks to have made some tangible improvement as a shooter. It is what has allowed him to stay on the court more with the Hawks and inflict his signature brand of defense upon opponents. It's hard to come up with ten better perimeter defenders in the game than Daniels and he could rise further up that list if he continues to show out against Boston. Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday all demand respect as scorers and it will be interesting to see how Dyson fares against one of the tougher lineups Atlanta has played all year.

Another matchup that will likely play a big role in Atlanta's chances for this one is Zaccharie Risacher versus Boston's defense. After a great debut, the rookie has experienced a bit of a slump. He finished with 11 points on 4/13 shooting from the field and only hit one of his five attempts from deep. Now, there was some nice activity on defense as he picked up three steals and two blocks. However, it is clear that Risacher is still finding his way in the league. If he can get hot from three-point range and force some turnovers, that could give the Hawks the edge needed to win this one."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Boston is a 10-point favorite tonight and the total is set at 234.

Prediction

This is a game that I just have a hard time seeing the Hawks win. They have struggled to defend the three-point line against teams this season and there is not a better three-point shooting team in the league than the Celtics. Not only that, but the Hawks are on the second night of a back-to-back. If Boston has an off-night shooting and both Trae Young and Jalen Johnson have big performances, it is possible the Hawks could win. Dyson Daniels's defense is going to be massive in this game, but I don't think it will be enough. Boston wins, but the Hawks cover.

Final Score: Boston 127, Atlanta 119