Hawks vs Celtics: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Will the Hawks find a way to keep the game close tonight in Boston without Trae Young?

Nov 9, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) passes behind Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

After a much needed two days off, the Atlanta Hawks are back on the court tonight in Boston against the defending champion Celtics. It is the first game of the 2024 NBA Cup and the winner is going to have a leg up on the rest of East Group C tonight. The big problem for the Hawks tonight is they are going to be facing Boston without their star point guard Trae Young. Young is going to miss tonight's game, meaning that Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher will have to pick up the slack tonight on offense. Look for Johnson to be the main creator on that end of the floor and I would suspect Keaton Wallace to get the start tonight in Young's place, though that is far from guaranteed.

Boston Could be down two key players as well. Both Jayson Tatum and Al Horford are questionable for the game tonight and Kristap Porzingis remains out.

Our own Rohan Raman gave a preview for the game tonight:

"Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 9th in the NBA in PPG, 16th in FG%, 17th in 3PA, 17th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 21st in rebounding, and 20th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 14th in points per 100 possessions, 14th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 19th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 6th in free throw rate.

Atlanta is 28th in PPG allowed, 21st in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in 3PA allowed, and 30th in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks are 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Although their games have been decided by a much narrower margin as of late, the Celtics have the second-best record in the NBA for a reason. They are 5th in points per game, 6th in field goal percentage, 1st in three point attempts, 11th in three point percentage, 13th in free throw attempts, 21st in rebounds, and 20th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics are 1st in points per 100 possessions, 4th in effective field goal percentage, 1st in turnover percentage, 19th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 9th in free throw rate.

Defensively, Boston is 8th in PPG allowed, 12th in field goal percentage allowed, 13th in three point attempts allowed, and 7th in three point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics are 9th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 10th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Given that Atlanta is down both Young and backup point guard Kobe Bufkin, Keaton Wallace now becomes a prime candidate to start at point guard for the Hawks. Atlanta simply cannot expect much from him as a scorer given that he will be matching up with the combo of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. It will be critical for Wallace to make good decisions as a passer and find Johnson/Risacher when open so that they can hit the three-pointers necessary to keep the Hawks in the game.

Speaking of Risacher, this is arguably the biggest role he has had to-date in his young NBA career. He will be relied on as a secondary offensive creator and will need to be aggressive going to the rim. Assuming that the Celtics sit Horford, it should be easier for Risacher to get to the rim and make his impact felt inside. He is currently shooting 54.5% at the rim, so the numbers have room to improve in that area. For tonight, Risacher needs to make quick decisions and limit turnovers so that the Hawks do not decrease their own margin for error. It will be a good challenge for the young wing.

One possible bright spot for the Hawks is their center play against Boston. Onyeka Okongwu was excellent in the last meeting of these two teams, scoring 18 points and grabbing 10 boards. He has looked better this season as a scorer. This season, he is shooting a career-best 84% from the charity strip on a career-high number of attempts per night (5.7) and he's converting on 74.4% of his shots at the rim (up from 74% last season). He is also drawing fouls at a higher rate when he is on offense, which indicates a heightened level of aggression as a scorer. His defense hasn't stood out quite as much, but the potential for him to be the athletic defensive piece that he was in 2022-23 is still there.

Dyson Daniels will also need to make an impact on offense in this matchup. He is averaging a career-high four attempts from deep and has more than doubled his overall amount of attempts from 5.1 to 12.1. That's a function of his role as a starter and he seems to have taken to the role. However, his overall shot has not been as consistent. Despite some games where the shot falls for him, he is shooting a paltry 27.8% from deep on the year. This has to be a good scoring game for Daniels if the Hawks have any chance of remaining in this one. On defense, there is little to be concerned about. He is averaging a career-high 3.3 steals per game and serves as the best perimeter defender for the Hawks. I think sticking Daniels on White as the primary defender might be a smart call, especially if Tatum is out.

Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised if the the Celtics give Tatum and Horford the night off, but they have not been ruled out yet. This article will be updated should that happen."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Boston is a 15-point favorite tonight and the total is set at 226.5.

Prediction

Even if Tatum and Horford both sit, this is a tough matchup for the Hawks, as Boston would still have Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday. It should be noted that the Hawks were massive underdogs in a game against Boston last season and won. Neither Trae Young nor Jalen Johnson played in that game. Johnson could have some heroics in store tonight and maybe Risacher has another breakout game, but its just hard to see this team being competitive in Boston against the Celtics.

Final Score: Boston 119, Atlanta 102

Additional Links

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