Hawks vs Heat: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups

Can Atlanta extend their winning streak to three tonight on the road?

After a lengthy losing stretch, the Atlanta Hawks have started to play better as of late. 

They come into tonight's road game against the Heat on a two-game winning streak and they have won three of their last four games. Atlanta will have to find a way to defeat the Miami Heat tonight, a team they have struggled with for the past couple of seasons. 

Aside from the win in the play-in tournament last year, the Hawks have not had success playing against the Heat. Even earlier this year, Miami missed Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Caleb Martin and still found a way to beat the Hawks in Atlanta. Bam Adebayo was brilliant and the Heat could not miss from three in that game. 

Tonight, Butler is again not going to be able to play against the Hawks due to a calf injury, but Herro and Martin are back for this game. 

So can the Hawks find a way to get a road win against Miami? Let's break down the game. 

Game Preview

Trae Young shooting vs the Rockets / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Hawks come into this game with one of the best offenses in the NBA and there is no secret as to why. Trae Young is playing the best basketball of his career and not only is he playing like an All-Star starter and All-NBA guard, but he is getting closer to that MVP level as well. Now, with the Hawks record like it is, you won't see his name in that discussion, but he is playing as well as anyone not named Joel Embiid right now. 

(hi, hello, Trae Young is up to 5th in oEPM, 11th in overall EPM, and has logged 30 & 10 in five straight games with a 66.8 TS to boot.)

— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) December 21, 2023

28 & 11 on 59.1 TS while playing the best defense of his career by my eye (you can judge how much that part matters considering the size/scheme limitations, but worth saying anyway.)

Surefire All-Star, if not a starter. On the fringe of All-NBA - should be in the convo at least.

— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) December 21, 2023

He has five straight games of at least 30 points and 10 assists and he will hope to extend that streak that streak tonight. 

Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic are also playing well right now, especially Bogdanovic, who has been one of the best players off the bench in the NBA this year. He is averaging close to 18 PPG off the bench this year and despite missing some time, he looked fine in Wednesday's game vs Houston. 

Clint Capela is averaging a double-double this season and has been one of the NBA's best offensive rebounders. 

Atlanta's offense ranks 3rd in PPG, 13th in field goal percentage, 6th in three-point percentage, 3rd in offensive rebounding, and 15th in turnovers. They have improved their three-point shooting and turnover marks this year and there isn't anything the Hawks are poor at on offense. With one of the league's best playmakers running the show, Atlanta can score on anyone. 

Dejounte Murray vs the Pistons / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 3rd in points per 100 possessions, 12th in effective field goal percentage, 11th in turnover percentage, 4th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 9th in free throw rate. 

Miami is usually an elite defensive team, but they have not been up to their usual standard this year. Now, they have had injuries and don't forget, Bam Adebayo is one of the most versatile defensive players in the NBA. Miami is 9th in the NBA in PPG allowed, 21st in field goal percentage allowed, and 22nd in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Miami is 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 25th in effective field goal percentage allowed. 

Can Atlanta get the necessary stops on defense to get a win in South Beach? That is what this game might come down to. For all of the good the Hawks do on offense, they are still one of the worst defenses in the NBA. 

Atlanta comes into this game ranked 28th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, and 25th in three-point percentage. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks are 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 30th in effective field goal percentage. Even against subpar offenses, Atlanta struggles to stop anyone. 

Miami is 20th in the NBA in PPG, 15th in field goal percentage, 1st in three-point percentage, 27th in offensive rebounding, and 7th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Miami is 17th in points per 100 possessions, 15th in effective field goal percentage, 16th in turnover percentage, 26th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 6th in free throw rate. 

The Heat's offense has been helped by the return of Herro. He is averaging over 23 PPG and is shooting over 41% from three. Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry are also having a strong year shooting from beyond the arc. 

Injury Report

Jimmy Butler is out for tonight's game vs the Hawks / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta is going to be missing Jalen Johnson, Kobe Bufkin, AJ Griffin, and Mouhamed Gueye tonight. 

Miami will be without Jimmy Butler. 

Viewing and Betting Information

Tip-off time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass, Bally Sports Southeast

Spread and Over/Under: The Hawks will be underdogs tonight, as they are currently 1.5-point underdogs according to the latest odds from the SI Sportsbook and the over/under is set at 237.5

Projected Starting Lineups

Hawks:

G- Trae Young

G- Dejounte Murray

F- De'Andre Hunter

F- Saddiq Bey

C- Clint Capela

Heat:

G- Tyler Herro

G- Kyle Lowry

F- Jaime Jaquez

F- Caleb Martin

C- Bam Adebayo

Player to Watch on the Hawks- Clint Capela

Capela is going to have the unenviable task of going against Bam Adebayo tonight. Capela is going to need to win the rebounding battle and give the Hawks second chance opportunities. Miami plays at a slow pace and possessions could be limited in this game, so second-chance opportunities could be vital. 

Player to Watch on the Heat- Tyler Herro

Herro was injured the last time these two teams played, but with Butler out, he will be the guy running the offense. Also, keep in mind, that Jaiquez had a big game the last time these two teams met and is having an exceptional rookie year. 

Prediction

Tyler Herro vs the Hawks / Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta has been playing well and Young is having an insane stretch right now. Despite the Hawks' defensive concerns, I think Butler being out of this game will make a huge difference in this game. Atlanta's three-point shooting and offensive rebounding win them this game and Young notches another 30-point, 10-assist game. 

Final Score: Hawks 118, Heat 115

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