Hawks vs Pelicans: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Can the Hawks upset the Pelicans on the road tonight?

Nov 1, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Garrison Mathews (24) shoots against the Sacramento Kings in the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Two of the NBA's most injured teams are going to face off tonight in New Orleans. The Hawks are on a three game losing streak coming into tonight's game vs the Pelicans and they could really use a win ahead of a Monday matchup against the Celtics.

The Hawks offense has not been a huge issue this season, though they have not been elite either. With the injuries, the defense has really suffered, but it could be helped if Daniels returns tonight to take on his former team.

Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 11th in the NBA in PPG, 15th in FG%, 14th in 3PA, 17th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 20th in rebounding, and 19th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 16th in points per 100 possessions, 13th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 18th offensive rebounding percentage, and 3rd in free throw rate.

Atlanta is 28th in PPG allowed, 16th in field goal percentage allowed, 27th in 3PA allowed, and 30th in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks are 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and 25th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The stats, whether advanced or not, have not been great for New Orleans so far this season. New Orleans is 24th in points per game, 19th in field goal percentage, 27th in three point attempts, 15th in three point percentage, 18th in free throw attempts, 15th in rebounds, and 13th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pelicans are 23rd in points per 100 possessions, 24th in effective field goal percentage, 16th in turnover percentage, 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 21st in free throw rate.

Defensively, New Orleans is 16th in PPG allowed, 21st in field goal percentage allowed, 15th in three point attempts allowed, and 25th in three point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, New Orlenas is 16th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 20th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Trae Young has had to carry a heavy load for the Hawks in the last two games because they are so shorthanded and even if Daniels is back tonight, that might not change. Young had 25 points on 8-21 shooting as well as 12 assists on offense. With Jones and Murphy out for New Orleans, Young could have an easier time on offense without their best wing defenders guarding him.

Having Daniels back would be huge from a defensive perspective, but he is also an extra ball handler and has been a good floor spacer as well. Keep an eye on his status today.

It has been a tough go for No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher in terms of shooting, but he has been a contributor for the Hawks in other ways. Still though, for him to be most effective, the Hawks need Risacher to be a viable threat when shooting the ball and he was 1-9 in nearly 20 minutes last night.

Jalen Johnson had been playing well heading into Friday's game vs the Kings, but he had a tough night on offense. He finished with 14 points, nine assists, and five rebounds while shooting 4-10 from the field.

Atlanta is going to have both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu tonight and they could have big nights. The Pelicans center rotation consists of rookie Yves Missi and Daniels Theis, but Missi has been playing well. Still, Capela and Okongwu are veterans and have the advantage in this game.

The Hawks bench has been playing well, particularly Garrison Matthews and Keaton Wallace. Matthews had 23 points and hit seven three-pointers against the Kings and kept the Hawks in the game. Wallace has been very good in the last two games on both ends and has earned more minutes going forward.

Prediction

According toFanduel Sportsbook, New Orleans is a 4.5-point favorite tonight and the total is set at 229.

I think the Hawks are going to be desperate to win this game. They have lost four in a row and have a game against the Celtics tomorrow, a game they are going to be heavy underdogs in. If Daniels plays, he could give the Hawks the boost they need to win the game. I think the Hawks are going to have a big advantage at the center spot that could allow them to get extra possessions. The duo of Trae Young and Jalen Johnson outduels Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson and Atlanta gets a win.

Final: Hawks 116, Pelicans 113