Hawks vs Pistons: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Can the Hawks get the road win tonight vs Detroit?

Nov 6, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) shoots against the New York Knicks during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks are back in action tonight on the road vs an improved Detroit Pistons team. For the past few seasons, Detroit has arguably been the worst team in the NBA, but that appears to have changed.

The Pistons hired former Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff this offseason and made improvments to their roster with veteran additions such as Tim Hardaway Jr and Tobias Harris and it has paid off so far. The Pistons are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA in the early going of the season and the Hawks will have to play a good game tonight if they want to get a win on the road.

Our own Rohan Raman gave an in-depth preview of tonight's game:

"Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 9th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 19th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 22nd in rebounding, and 22nd-best in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 12th in points per 100 possessions, 12th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in turnover percentage, 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 8th in free throw rate.

On defense, Atlanta is 28th in PPG allowed, 16th in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in 3PA allowed, and 30th in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks are 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Pistons are 27th in the NBA in PPG, 15th in FG%, 20th in 3PA, 22nd in 3P%, 28th in FTA, 7th in rebounding, and 27th-best in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Detroit is 23rd in points per 100 possessions, 15th in effective field goal percentage, 29th in turnover percentage, 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 25th in free throw rate.

As a defense, Detroit is 8th in PPG allowed, 10th in field goal percentage allowed, 8th in 3PA allowed, and 14th in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pistons are 13th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and 10th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The numbers indicate that Detroit primarily wins games through its combination of strong defense and good rebounding while Atlanta wins through its offensive prowess. As a result, this is a matchup that Clint Capela will likely be extremely important in. Neither Isaiah Stewart or Paul Reed are true floor spacers at the center position, so any concerns over Capela being exploited on the perimeter should be minimal. Especially with Duren out, I expect Capela to have a strong rebounding performance against the Pistons. Stewart is one of Detroit's better defenders and Reed has his moments, but neither are imposing enough on that end to take Capela out of the game.

From a star talent perspective, the juxtaposition between Trae Young and Cade Cunningham is very intriguing. I expect that Daniels will take on the assignment of guarding Cunningham - he occupied a similar role when guarding Jalen Brunson. Cunningham has been much better to start 2024-25 than last season as he is averaging 22.9 points, 7.7 assists and 6.8 rebounds on 47.1/34.6/77.4 splits. However, I do think this is a matchup that Daniels should be able to handle. One interesting note is Cunningham's size in comparison to the small guards Daniels typically has a lot of success against. Daniels was good in his minutes against Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson, who are both around 6'2. It is a slightly different challenge to guard the 6'6 Cunningham, who is stronger and bigger than the average point guard. For Detroit, guarding Trae Young is going to be a struggle. They are fresh off of getting diced up by LaMelo Ball for 25 points, 8 assists and six rebounds. Young is a better shooter with similar playmaking ability.

I am also interesting to see how Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher match up against Detroit's wings. Johnson should face little resistance from Tobias Harris, whose veteran presence and abilities as a floor spacer shouldn't make up for the athletic disadvantage he is at against Johnson. To counter that, Detroit might try putting the athletic Ron Holland II on Johnson in order to keep up with him. Holland is also one of the better finishers in the NBA and has an explosive first step, so Johnson will need to be effective in both staying with him and communicating with Capela to limit that possible advantage.

Risacher likely won't have a repeat performance as a shooter, but I would expect him to find success against either Tim Hardaway Jr or Simone Fontecchio. Fontecchio and Holland are two of the Pistons' most interesting rotation pieces. Holland offers rim pressure while Fontecchio is one of the best shooting talents on the team. However, he is only hitting 31% of his attempts from deep, so it's possible that he will not be able to impact the matchup against Atlanta.

The Hawks also need to be very mindful of not letting Jaden Ivey, Tim Hardaway Jr or Malik Beasley take over this game as shooters. Hardaway and Beasley are known shooters capable on going on a hot streak from three that sinks Atlanta while Ivey has been red-hot from three-point range to open the year. He is currently shooting 41.3% from deep on 5.1 attempts a game. It's a small sample size, but Atlanta's suspectible perimeter defense will need to be better in order to stifle a shooting surge from the Pistons."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Atlanta is a 1-point underog tonight and the total is set at 226.5.

Prediction

The Hawks have had trouble stringing together consistency in the early part of the season, but they have a chance to get a win tonight in Detroit. If the Hawks can avoid letting Ivey and Hardaway Jr get hot from three, as well as limiting Cunningham's impact on the game, I think they find a way to get their third win in the last four games.

Final Score: Hawks 115, Pistons 111

Additional Links

Zaccharie Risacher's Career Night Puts Him In Same Company As LeBron James and Kobe Bryant

Zaccharie Risacher Surges To The Top In Rookie Of The Year Odds After Career Best Night vs the Knicks

Injury Report: Hawks vs Pistons