How Big Is The Gap Between the Hawks and Other Potential Eastern Conference Playoff Teams?

Are the Hawks far behind other Eastern Conference Playoff Teams?

Apr 10, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) controls the ball against the Charlotte Hornets during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA offseason is at a standstill right now and unless there is some surprising trade that changes teams in a meaningful way, the rosters for the upcoming season are set. This means that we can now start projecting where teams are going to end the season and how they stack up with other teams. A couple of days ago, a panel of ESPN experts released their projections for the Eastern Conference and here is how they view things right now:

1. Boston Celtics: 61-21

2. New York Knicks: 53-29

3. Philadelphia 76ers: 52-30

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: 50-32

5. Milwaukee Bucks: 49-33

6. Orlando Magic: 47-35

7. Indiana Pacers: 46-36

8. Miami Heat: 45-37

9. Atlanta Hawks: 31-51

10. Chicago Bulls: 30-52

11. Toronto Raptors: 26-56

12. Charlotte Hornets: 21-61

13. Brooklyn Nets: 22-60

14. Detroit Pistons: 20-62

15. Washington Wizards: 17-65

They have projected the Hawks to find themselves in the play-in tournament again, but with only 31 wins. They are 14 games behind the No. 8 Miami Heat and 16 behind the No. 6 Orlando Magic. That is a really big gap, even bigger than the one the Hawks were in last year, where they finished 10 games behind the Heat for the No. 8 spot. So the question is, are the Hawks really that far behind those teams? I am going to argue no.

Where I do think there is a significant gap is at the very top of the Eastern Conference. Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Milwaukee are much better than the Hawks and I would be surprised (barring injury) if the Hawks finished above those teams. Orlando, Indiana, and Miami are the teams that if things went right for Atlanta, they could surprise and finish ahead of one of those teams. There is usually one or two teams from the previous year that end up disappointing the following year and one of those teams is going to underperform this year.

While I don't view the Hawks as a top contender in the Eastern Conference, I actually think they are being underrated right now. I think trading Dejounte Murray is a plus for this team and they have a roster that makes more sense and fits around Trae Young better. They also have proven veteran depth that they can count on, namely Bogdan Bogdanovic, De'Andre Hunter, Larry Nance and Clint Capela. I think a lot of the Hawks' season is going to come down to the growth of younger players on their roster. Can Jalen Johnson take an even bigger leap than what he did last year? Can Dyson Daniels be a reliable starter next to Trae Young? Can Onyeka Okongwu take a major step forward? What kind of impact can No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher have in his first year? Can Kobe Bufkin stay healthy? Those are all major questions for the Hawks, but I think a lot of them could hit. Johnson is going to be the No. 2 option on the Hawks now and is going to have to be even better, which I think he can. Daniels looked awesome in the Olympics and if he can shoot the ball well from three, his defense is what the Hawks have needed next to Trae Young. Risacher should benefit by playing with Trae Young. I think Young is primed for a huge season and should have the Hawks offense performing well because he has the ball in his hands for the majority of the time.

I don't think the Heat are 14 games better than Atlanta. Could Miami finish ahead of them? Sure, but I highly doubt they lap the field with the Hawks like ESPN is projecting. They have arguably gotten worse this offseason by losing Caleb Martin and they have not been a good regular season team the past two seasons. Jimmy Butler is aging and has had a hard time staying healthy. Terry Rozier could not stay healthy last year either. If they have health luck, the Heat were good whenever Butler, Rozier, and Bam Adebayo were on the floor together, but that is a big if.

Orlando and Indiana took big steps forward last year, but we have seen before in the NBA that teams who overachieve and then have heightened expectations the next year can disappoint. The Hawks are a great example of that. Following their Eastern Conference Finals run, Atlanta has not been higher than 7th in the standings. Orlando did sign Kentaviousn Caldwell-Pope, but they still have a hole at point guard and their offense will still be average or below average. The defense will be elite, but will the offense hold them back from seeing massive improvement? It is possible.

Indiana got to the Eastern Conference Finals, but were fortunate to do so. They faced beaten up teams in Milwaukee and the Knicks before getting swept by Boston. The defense could still be an issue and they are a team that I think could be primed to disappoint this year.

It is possible that all of these teams finish above the Hawks, but not by this much. I think Atlanta is much closer to being the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference than being out of the play-in race like ESPN projects. I would be pretty surprised if the Hawks only win 31 games and finish this far behind the other teams in the back-half of the Eastern Conference.