How Will Atlanta Survive The Minutes Without Trae Young?

The Hawks have historically struggled to maintain a quality offense when Trae Young is on the bench - could things be better this season?

Oct 14, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) in action against the Philadelphia 76ers in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Trae Young's ability as an offensive engine means that the Hawks are built around him. He is their lead playmaker and arguably their best volume shooter. There are very few players that are capable of averaging the 25+ points and 10 assists Young has put up for each of the last two seasons. However, what happens when he hits the bench?

More often than not, the Hawks' offense takes a colossal dip. Now, things were a little better in 2023-24. The presence of Dejounte Murray meant that the Hawks' offense still had a point guard to run things and provide a scoring presence. It's part of the reason why Young's on-off splits were not as dramatic as they have been in years past. Both his box plus-minus of 2.6 and value above replacement player (VORP) of 2.2 were at relative lows compared to his usual numbers.

However, the Hawks' swings in offensive rating bears out the difference. With Young on the court, the Hawks had an offensive rating of 121.4. That's slightly below the league-leading 122.1 that the Celtics posted last season. Without him on the court, their offensive rating fell to a mediocre 115.1 mark. Some dip should be expected when the star player hits the bench, but the Hawks will now not be able to rely on Murray to take over as the main option in Young's absence. Therefore, this difference could be even wider in 2024-25.

As a result, their offense will need to be more multi-faceted in order to be passable when Young sits. Part of that starts with increased opportunities for Jalen Johnson. The fourth-year power forward appears primed for a bigger role after posting 16 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists on good efficiency. He is not a facilitator in the same way that Young is, but he's a underrated playmaker as a wing. He can find others for easy points and that makes him a central part of running the offense in Young's absence.

Bogdan Bogdanovic staying healthy will also be critical. Like Young, he is a volume shooter from deep whose spacing makes the flow of the offense much smoother. He is also a good player to end possessions with since he is able to capitalize on plays that get him the ball at the three-point line.

However, the two most exciting pieces of this puzzle are Kobe Bufkin and Zaccharie Risacher. Bufkin capped off his preseason with 31 points, four assists and three rebounds against the Oklahoma City Thunder. It was not his most efficient outing - Bufkin took 26 shots. However, he hit seven of his 14 attempts from deep. Furthermore, he accrued a significant amount of those points against the Thunder's starters, one of the best lineups in the NBA. He has taken hold of the backup point guard spot behind Young for the time being. If he can up his scoring while being a solid playmaker, that will be a huge part of keeping the Hawks' offense functional without Young.

Although only 19 years old, Risacher showed he belonged on an NBA court during preseason. He showed growth as a scorer, confidence in his three-point shot and even became more aggressive on the boards. If he can be a good catch-and-shot option for Atlanta with some ability to finish at the rim and execute simple passes while not being a sieve on defense, that will give the Hawks two wings who can shoot, defend and pass.

There is also the matter of who starts at center for the Hawks throughout this season. Onyeka Okongwu made his long-awaited season debut last night and looked solid, but obviously needs time to get back to his old form. Clint Capela is what he is - he's still good for a double-double on any given night. Still, neither are dynamic offensive players and most of their baskets will come off other players setting them up.

That being said, I think the most important part of mainting Atlanta's offense without Young is how Johnson handles a larger role. If he scales his game up and Bogdanovic stays healthy, it gives Bufkin and Risacher time to establish themselves in their roles. I would expect to see more oscillations in their performances because Risacher is a rookie and Bufkin is a second-year player. Fortunately, the Hawks seem to have the offensive pieces to give them time to develop into key parts of the offense.