If Healthy, Could the Hawks Be The Most Dangerous Play-In Team In The Eastern Conference?

Atlanta is heading towards their third straight play-in tournament appearance

Two things can be true; The Atlanta Hawks have been one of the most disappointing (if not the most disappointing team) teams in the NBA this season and they have also not been healthy. The Hawks have not had their top guys healthy at the same time for most of this season and while I am not here to tell you the Hawks would be in contention for a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference, I think their record would be better. 

Even right now with 14 games left in their season, the Hawks are not healthy. Superstar point guard Trae Young is still out with an injury, as is rookie guard Kobe Bufkin, who was starting to play more and play well after Young went down. During the time that Young has been out, the Hawks lost forward Saddiq Bey for the season and while Bey had his shortcomings, he was a crucial piece for the Hawks this season. 

Some good injury news for the Hawks as of late was that Jalen Johnson was able to come back from a brief ankle injury and Onyeka Okongwu played his first game in over a month. If the Hawks could get Young and Bufkin back, it would be the healthiest they have been in a while. 

If they do come back though, there is likely nothing the Hawks can do to change their playoff position. They are a pretty good bet to finish in the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference, as they are far enough ahead of the Brooklyn Nets to feel safe, but are 3.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls and are unlikely to catch them barring a collapse from the Bulls. If Young and Bufkin come back, Atlanta is likely still going to need two wins to get in the playoffs. 

Mar 18, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) dunks the ball over Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves (15) in the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta and Chicago are seemingly locked into 9 and 10 while the 76ers, Pacers, and Heat are vying for the 7 and 8 spots. 

So who among this group would be most dangerous? My answer would not be the Hawks 

If the 76ers get a healthy Joel Embiid back, they would be my pick as the most dangerous playoff team, even more than the Heat, who have had health problems of their own. If either of these teams were healthy going into the postseason, I think they would be better equipped to make a postseason run. 

For one, Embiid was the MVP frontrunner and playing at an exceptionally high level before he went down with injury. He would be the best player on any of the play-in teams and whether it is Boston or Milwaukee, they would not want to see a healthy Embiid in the first round of the playoffs. 

The Heat are the team you can never count out because of their history and their coach. Erik Spoelstra is still the best coach in the NBA and when the calendar turns to April, Jimmy Butler becomes a different player entirely. The Heat have also shown they have the ability to go from the play-in tournament to the NBA Finals and if Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Kevin Love, and Duncan Robinson all get healthy for them, they could be dangerous. 

I do think that the Hawks are a more dangerous team in the playoffs than the Pacers or Bulls. Not that I think Atlanta would beat Boston or even win a game in a series with the Celtics, but just go back to last year and see how tough Trae Young can be in the playoffs. After Boston dominated the first two games, Young nearly got the series to a game seven. Young is a proven playoff playmaker and has already carried a team to a conference finals appearance. Indiana or Chicago don't strike fear into a team at all and haven't in a long time. Young and the Hawks can at least point to recent playoff success. 

I also think we have not seen much of the Hawks's (potentially) best lineup. According to Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta has only played 38 possessions with Young, Murray, Hunter, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu together. In those 38 possessions, the Hawks have an elite offense, but their defense is not very good. They have a 62.1 effective field goal percentage and score 121 points per 100 possessions, both elite numbers. This is a lineup I want to see the Hawks use more when they are healthy. 

Truthfully, it will be hard for the Hawks to make a run in the playoffs even if they get healthy and a lot of that has to do with playoff position. The Hawks are likely going to need to win two games just to get a date with a historically great Boston team in the first round. This season has just not been one to remember in Atlanta and I don't think they will be a very dangerous team when the play-in tournament begins. 

Updated Eastern Conference Playoff Picture: Hawks Still Have Tight Grip On No. 10 Spot Thanks to Brooklyn