If The Atlanta Hawks Take Alex Sarr With the No. 1 Pick, Does That Mean A Clint Capela Trade Is Likely?

Jackson Caudell | May 15, 2024

Apr 17, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Clint Capela (15) grabs a rebound against / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Hawks got a big, but good, surprise when they won the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday. Even though they had only a 3% chance to win the No. 1 pick, Atlanta won the Draft Lottery for the first time in franchise history, adding an unexpected twist to what is supposed to be a busy offseason in terms of wanting to reshape the roster.

There has been a ton of talk over the past few months leading up to the NBA Draft about how this is one the weakest drafts in NBA history or at least the past 25-30 years, but there are still talented players in the class and one name, in particular, has been mocked to the Hawks since the moment they won the lottery.

Alex Sarr has been mocked to the Hawks by several prominent outlets over the past 24 hours or so since the Draft Lottery and if Atlanta does take him, it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta has struggled on the defensive end of the floor for the past few seasons and lacks size, athleticism, and length, which Sarr brings in droves. He is 7'1, 220 LBS, and has a 7'4 wingspan. He uses his athleticism well and would be an impact guy on that end of the floor immediately. He is arguably the highest-ceiling prospect in the draft at a position of need for the Hawks. He is the presumed favorite to be selected No. 1 for a reason.

Would he play center for the Hawks? Power forward? I think that is up for debate but if the Hawks take him, would that mean the likelihood of center Clint Capela being traded would go up?

I think it would and it would have to do with on-court reasons and financial reasons as The Hawks could face an interesting situation with the salary cap according to ESPN's Bobby Marks, as he explained yesterday:

"In any other year, moving up nine slots in the draft to No. 1 would be seen as a coup -- especially for an Atlanta Hawks team that has been mired in mediocrity the past three seasons. But team executives ESPN talked to hours after Sunday's draft lottery did not want to discuss who Atlanta could draft, but instead more the financial ramifications of now having the top pick.

Because the NBA operates with a sliding rookie scale based on when a player is selected, Atlanta is set to increase their payroll by an additional $7 million (the first pick is $12.6 million compared to $5.5 million for a player selected 10th). This matters because Atlanta now has $175.9 million in salary and is projected to be in the luxury tax for the first time since 2010-11.

More important, however, is the Hawks are $2.2 million above the first apron, a result of the unlikely De'Andre Hunter, Dejounte Murray, and Clint Capela bonuses. Unlikely incentives continue to count against the first and second apron even if they are not reached. Signing restricted free agent Saddiq Bey to either a qualifying offer or new contract would also push Atlanta over the second apron.

As teams have pointed out, keep an eye on the Hawks' $23 million trade exception that is set to expire July 7. If Atlanta does not shed salary, the exception is not allowed in a trade. Atlanta would also not be allowed to aggregate contracts or take back more money in a trade if the acquiring salary leaves them over the second apron.

Despite the bleak financial outlook, Capela (the Hawks' starting center) is on an expiring $22.3 million contract and could be expendable if Atlanta drafts Alex Sarr at No. 1. Also, outside of veteran Trae Young, no player on the Hawks' roster earns more than $25.5 million."

Back to the on-court reasons though.

Capela has been awesome for the Hawks ever since they acquired him in February of 2020 for next to nothing in a four-team deal that involved the Hawks, Rockets, Nuggets, and Timberwolves. He should have gotten more love as a defensive player of the year candidate in the 2020-2021 season and has been the anchor for Atlanta on the defensive end, a place where they have struggled. He has been the perfect lob threat for Trae Young in the pick-and-roll and goes underappreciated amongst many for his impact on the team.

After the Hawks traded for Capela, they drafted Onyeka Okongwu with the No. 6 pick in 2020 and some thought that Capela would only be in Atlanta for a couple of seasons until Okongwu took over full-time. Not only has that not happened, but both players signed extensions with Atlanta. It does not make a lot of sense to have those two together on the team any longer and that was before the Hawks had the opportunity to take Sarr. Now that they can take a high-upside defensive prospect like Sarr, it makes even more sense to move Capela.

What kind of return could the Hawks get for Capela?

I would temper your expectations about the potential return if you are a Hawks fan. Capela is going into the last year of his deal and is not a big offensive threat. He had a bit of a down season in 2023-2024, compared to his usual level of play, but he still offers upside as a shot blocker and rebounder.

Look out for teams like Oklahoma City, Memphis, and possibly New Orleans to be interested, as all of those teams have a need for a player like Capela. It could be a package of second round picks sent to Atlanta or a possiblly a rotational player.

That does not solve all of Atlanta's questions though.

I think the biggest question would be if Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu could play together on the court. Okongwu has primarily been a center while with the Hawks and rarely shares the floor with another big man, though head coach Quin Snyder did try lineups with Capela and Okongwu on the floor together last year even if it was in limited amounts.

Per Cleaning the Glass, Okongwu and Capela played only 279 possessions this season and had a point differential of +2.1 when they shared the court. The problem is this sample size is far too low and there is not enough evidence to say that Okongwu could play the four well.

If Sarr and Okongwu were to play together, there would be a massive question about floor spacing. Okongwu did show a willingness to take more three-pointers last season, but only attempted 69 of them and made 23 of them (33%). You can say that he would have taken more threes if he did not get injured, but his three-point shooting is still a big question mark. Combine that with Sarr's questions on the offensive end and ability to space the floor, that could be a sticky situation for Atlanta.

Atlanta is fortunate to be in the position that they are in due to winning the lottery, but some tough decisions are still going to have to be made and they might include trading Capela.