Jalen Johnson Labeled The Top Breakout Prospect in the NBA

NBA analysts are very high on what the third-year forward can do for Atlanta as the second option working off of Trae Young.

Apr 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) drives to the basket past Denver Nuggets guard Reggie Jackson (7) in the second half at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael Ciaglo-Imagn Images / Michael Ciaglo-Imagn Images

The hardest archetype to develop in the NBA is the self-creating wing. Plenty of wings come into the NBA and lack the physical tools to finish well at the rim. Even fewer have the shooting touch to be able to create their own shot at all levels of the court. It's an even smaller group that has the ability to pass and facilitate. Outside of Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards and LeBron James at times, there are practically no wings capable of doing all three and playing good defense.

If Year 4 goes as expected, Jalen Johnson might make a serious push to enter that group in a way that did not seem possible for him as a rookie.

He went from barely playing as a rookie, only suiting up in 22 games and doing most of his development in the G League. Things got better as a second-year player, but he still struggled to shoot and really only confirmed that he was a rotation player. Johnson looked like a different player in Year 3. He improved in practically every statistical category and became a two-way force for Atlanta in the 55 games that he played.

Does he have another gear to reach in Year 4?

Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report seems to think so - he ranked Johnson as not only the Hawks' best prospect for 2024-25, but also the best prospect in the NBA. His reasoning is below:

"Contract: $4.5 million (fourth of four years, $4.5 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 10"

"It's easy to forget that Johnson was somewhat forgettable through his first two seasons. He already broke out last year to 16.0 points per game, but it wasn't noticed as widely as it should have been—probably because the Hawks weren't very good. Three players named Jalen earned most-improved votes (Williams, Brunson and Suggs), but none for Johnson."

"When he jumps to over 20 points per game this season and Atlanta is more competitive than some expect, Johnson will earn MIP as this year's breakout prospect. He's still just 22, has three years of service, just 3,051 minutes logged, and averaged 9.3 minutes per game in the 2022-23 playoffs."

"Other candidates: Dyson Daniels, Kobe Bufkin"

Johnson to win MIP is hardly a surprising take. Many expect the forward to elevate his scoring averages up to 20 points per game while maintaining his efficiency and volume as a three-point shooter (35.5% on 3.6 attempts a night). However, I think this is the correct take when examining how much more support Johnson will have this year in Atlanta.

Johnson is already an effective defensive player, but it can be argued that he was overtaxed as the solution to all of the Hawks' defensive woes. Many times, he was the only high-impact perimeter defender Atlanta had to offer. That should change in 2024-25. Dyson Daniels is one of the most underrated defenders in the NBA and can reliably shut down opposing ball-handlers. That leaves Johnson to guard the other team's best wing, which should be a neutral to good matchup in most cases. Furthermore, Zaccharie Risacher should also play heavy minutes for Atlanta. The rookie wing looked very comfortable in his pre-season debut, scoring 18 points on 7-9 shooting and hitting three threes. He did not pop as much as a defender, but looked relatively solid on that end for a rookie. If he becomes an average defender, that will ease some of Johnson's burden. It's also important to remember Johnson is only 23 himself. He will have lapses on that end of the floor - the Hawks now have more people capable of giving him the help he needs.

On offense, his chemistry with Trae Young should only continue to evolve after the departure of Dejounte Murray. If the preseason is any indication, the best offensive lineup for the Hawks might be the Young - Bogdanovic - Risacher - Johnson - Nance lineup. Bogdanovic did not play in the preseason opener against Indiana, but he is unquestionably the better offensive player over Daniels. In that lineup, Johnson will be surrounded by four respectable shooters from deep. That gives him plenty of options for playmaking and play-finishing. Any one of them are capable of finding him to throw down one of his electrifying dunks.

Given the improvements in team context, there's a good chance that Johnson puts his name in All-Star conversations. Outside of Hornets wing Brandon Miller, who earned a nod from Pincus as the second-best prospect, none of the other prospects on the list appear to be realistic candidates for that conversation in 2024-25. Miller is also a good player, but I do think Johnson is a better defender at this stage in their career. Miller is the better shooter and Johnson is the better two-way player. For the modern NBA, a two-way wing with slightly less shooting upside is more valued than an offensively-tilted one with higher shooting upside.

Dyson Daniels and Kobe Bufkin would have both also been good choices for Atlanta, but I do think they'd be closer to the middle of the list. Still, both players had encouraging debuts for Atlanta in their preseason opener. Daniels finished with 14 points (5-8 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three assists and two steals while Bufkin put up nine points on 3-8 shooting, as well as four assists and three rebounds. Daniels looked comfortable as the starting shooting guard while Bufkin acquitted himself nicely as the backup point guard and a plus defender for Atlanta.