National Analyst Gives New Atlanta Hawks Final Win-Loss Record Prediction

What will the Hawks final record be after the 2024-2025 season?

Nov 4, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) passes the ball against New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

When you look at the NBA Win Totals over on Fanduel Sportsbook, the Atlanta Hawks are sitting at 36.5 and that win total suggests that the sportsbooks are expecting the Hawks to end up in the NBA Play-in Tournament for the fourth straight season. Atlanta has not made the top six of the Eastern Conference and avoided the play-in since they made their run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. While you could certainly make a case that the Hawks are being a bit underrated, the expectation league wide is that they will be in the play-in tournament this season.

In fact, Bleacher Report analyst Eric Pincus has the Hawks going under their projected win total, but still being able to make the play-in tournament:

Seeding: No. 10 (Eastern Conference)

Best Case: No. 8 seed

2025 NBA Draft First-Round Pick: Owed to San Antonio Spurs

The Hawks have talent but haven't been able to win consistently in recent years. After pivoting away from Dejounte Murray (traded to the New Orleans Pelicans), can a breakout year from Jalen Johnson provide enough alongside Trae Young to push the team into the playoffs?

Without their own first-round pick, the Hawks will compete throughout the year as rebuilding teams start to shut down veteran players."

Result: Play-in

I think there is a chance that the Hawks can outplay this expectation. While they did lose Dejounte Murray, Murray never was a fit with Trae Young. This roster has more size and more defense on it, two things the Hawks did not have a year ago. The additions of Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, and Larry Nance should only help Atlanta this season and with Murray gone, the offense will fully revolve around Trae Young and he is good enough to lead this team to a top-ten offensive rating all by himself.

This season could come down to the progression of the young players on the roster, including Daniels, Risacher, and Jalen Johnson. Johnson took a huge leap last season and Larry Nance says he has had a dominant start to training camp:

"Yeah, I mean, the two that come to mind right away, obviously, last year being in in the West, I only got to play against JJ twice, hit last year. So, you never know what you don't know. I just thought kind of an athletic dude, run like a deer, didn't know the skill level and then seeing him up close and first, he dominated practice today. He was awesome, knocking down three, he's transitioned. He's been really, really impressive and I'm trying to push him more and to speak and see more and leading the group and breaking the huddles and stuff like that cuz he's gonna be a guy in the sleeve and you know with that come heavy is the head that wears a crown so he's, he's gonna wear the crown one day and he's being grouped for that.

Johnson is seen as one of the ascending talents in the NBA coming into the 2024-2025 season and it has to do with the growth that he showed last year. Johnson went from a player who was just a young talent to one of the most important players in the franchise. He saw improvements in every major category last season, from points per game (5.6 to 16), assists per game (1.2 to 3.6), rebounds per game (4.0 to 8.7), three-point shooting percentage (28.8% to 35.5%), and minutes per game (14.9 to 33.7). Johnson was one of the favorites to win the Most Improved Player Award and likely would have taken home the hardware if he was able to meet the 65-game threshold last year.

What will the Hawks record be this season? I think it could surprise people, but they will have to have some things go right, including their young talent taking a step forward.

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