NBA Analyst Predicts Atlanta will Regret Trae Young's Massive Contract

Will the Hawks regret giving Trae Young such a long contract?

Feb 23, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) dribbles guarded by Toronto Raptors guard Gary Trent Jr. (33) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

This is going to be a big year for the Atlanta Hawks. After trading away Dejounte Murray, Atlanta will have a different look to them this season. Murray is gone and Trae Young is the unquestioned vocal point of the team. The Hawks have a number of young players they are going to be looking to take the next step, incluing Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, Onyeka Okongwu, and Dyson Daniels. Alongside the young players, the Hawks still have veterans such as Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela to rely on as well and I think there is a chance that they Hawks surprise the league and contend for a top six playoff spot.

Everyone around the league does not have that level of optimism. Young is on a massive contract and Bleacher Report analyst Eric Pincus thinks the Hawks might regret this contract:

"When Young led Atlanta to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals after the team's four-year playoff drought, the Hawks invested heavily in him and the roster around him.

With his All-NBA third-team selection in 2021-22, his rookie-scale extension jumped to 30 percent of the cap instead of the standard 25.

Since then, the franchise hasn't won a playoff series, missing the postseason in 2023-24. The Hawks tried to pair Dejounte Murray with Young as a second lead guard, but that didn't work well enough (Murray was sent to the New Orleans Pelicans this summer).

While his talent is undeniable, not many teams are interested in an expensive, small (6'1", 164 lbs) point guard who doesn't defend and needs the ball in his hands to be effective.

In recent years, the trade market has been said to be cold on Young. Atlanta is doing its best to put a winning product around him with diminishing returns."

Potential regret level: 7/10

While it feels like the discussion around Young centers around how the Hawks can't win with him, I don't think they are focused enough on what the Hawks have done this offseason to construct a roster around him. While there are unknowns with guys like Daniels and Risacher, there is considerable upside with them as well.

On the latest episode of the Lowe Post Podcast, NBA analysts Zach Lowe and Kevin Pelton were discussing the most intriguing players ahead of the season and Pelton named Daniels as one player to watch:

"I think the idelized version of Daniels is a really good fit in Atlanta next to Trae Young. He gives them size in the backcourt and he is terrific defending on the ball if he can shoot and that is the big question mark. He did not make really any progress, was still at 31% last season. He has been working with maybe the best at this point, shot doctor in the league and Fred Vinson with the Pelicans coaching staff. The fact that they were not convinced he could go with shooters may be a little bit of a concern for me and I think that is interesting because guys who get traded on their rookie contracts is valued, like not buy low trade, but he was hypothetically along with the pick they got, part of the value in return for Dejounte Murray. I don't feel like the track record of those guys is that good.

Aaron Nesmith is someone you could say succeeded in this in Indiana. Nickeil Alexander-Walker eventually took a little while. But the last guy who got traded before the last year of a rookie contract who really hit big on his next team I think is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and that is obviously pie in the sky. We are not talking about that with Dyson Daniels. Whereas you can look at RJ Hampton when he was in the Aaron Gordon trade, Romeo Langford, part of the Derrick White trade, Cam Reddish going for a first round pick, Dennis Smith Jr, Landry Shamet. They don't usually turn out that well when the other team is trading you early in your career, it is probably because they know something that the rest of the league does not. I am curious to see how that is going to play out with Dyson Daniels."

I do think it is a big season for Young, but I think he is in a position to succeed and lead the team. As long as Young is the primary creator on offense, the Hawks should have a top offense in the NBA, but it has been the other side of the court that has given them issues. Bringing in Dyson Daniels via the Dejounte Murray trade, drafting Risacher, and hoping that Johnson, Okongwu, Clint Capela, and De'Andre Hunter can continue to defend at an above average level. If the Hawks can get better on that end, then I think they could be a surprise team in 2024-2025.