NBA Analyst Projects What Jalen Johnson's Rookie-Scale Contract Extension With Atlanta Could Be

Johnson is eligible for a rookie-level extension and could receive a huge payday

Apr 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) drives to the basket past Denver Nuggets guard Reggie Jackson (7) in the second half at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael Ciaglo-USA TODAY Sports / Michael Ciaglo-USA TODAY Sports

Jalen Johnson was selected by the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2021 NBA Draft and he had a breakout season last year, seeing a huge increase in production and looking like a potential All-Star for the future. If he had not suffered injuries, he was in line to compete for the Most Improved Player Award and he could have won it.

This offseason, Johnson is eligible for his rookie-scale extension, which could happen any day now, but the Oct. 21st deadline is not far away. Johnson looked like he could be a franchise cornerstone last year and the Hawks would be wise to get this done. Last offseason, they came to an agreement with center Onyeka Okongwu on the last day he was eligible to be extended, but did not do so with former forward Saddiq Bey, who signed with the Washington Wizards this offseason.

What could the contract extension for Johnson look like? Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus gave his thoughts in a recent article:

"With the NBA's new broadcast deal starting ahead of the 2025-26 season, the salary cap is widely expected to climb 10 percent from this year's $140.6 million to $154.6 million.

A player's standard max is 25 percent of the cap or a projected $38.7 million for 2025-26, paying out up to $224.2 million over five seasons. Should a player qualify by earning MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or an All-NBA team honor, that max can climb to a $46.4 million starting salary ($269.1 million total).

In asking several competing executives about the 2021 draft class, Jalen Johnson's name came up as one they're watching closely, with his combination of size (6'9") and skill. The Atlanta Hawks are expected, however, to retain him.

2023-24 averages (56 games, 52 starts): 33.7 minutes, 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 35.5 percent from three

Closest comp: Vassell, McDaniels

March expectation: Johnson could fight for $25-30 million annually.

Current expectation: Competing executives suggested he could end up even higher.

This from ESPN's Bobby Marks shows how much Johnson improved from his previous season and showed why he is in for a nice extension:

"The Hawks have up until Oct. 21 to extend Johnson. The forward averaged career highs in points (16.1) and 3-point percentage (35.3%). Overall, Johnson has increased his scoring average from 5.6 last season to 16.1 this season. That is the second-largest increase among players to play at least 50 games in both seasons, trailing Cam Thomas. Johnson ranked in the bottom-10 in field goal percentage on all jumpers last season but saw an increase this year, going from 29% to 39%. Since Fields joined the front office in October 2020, Atlanta has signed a player to a rookie extension in each of the past three offseasons (Young, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter and Okongwu)"

I think there are two players who got extensions last offseason that are nice comparisons for Johnson in terms of what his extension might look like.

Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels earned a five-year $131 million dollar extension last offseason and Spurs guard Devin Vassell earned a five-year, $135 million dollar extension. Those two players I think are going to be the starting point for where Johnson's will be. He is a better player with a higher ceiling I believe and he plays a position of great value.

If I had to guess, I think Johnson will get more than either of those players, but not receive a full max like LaMelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, and Anthony Edwards did. Johnson might even be closer to the five-year, $197 million dollar extension that Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane received.