New Blockbuster Three-Team Trade Proposal Sends Ingram to Miami, Hawks Supplement Shooting, NOP Remakes Backcourt

How could the Hawks benefit from the Miami Heat landing Brandon Ingram?

Oct 14, 2022; Birmingham, Alabama, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) is defended by the Atlanta Hawks in the third quarter at Legacy Arena at BJCC. Mandatory Credit: Larry Robinson-USA TODAY Sports / Larry Robinson-USA TODAY Sports

Even though the NBA off-season has concluded, the future of Brandon Ingram is still far from decided.

Ingram's desire for a $200+ million dollar contract and New Orleans' reluctance to give it to him have left both sides at a stand-still. After making a deal with the Hawks for Dejounte Murray, the Pelicans have a lot of offensive options to balance. Everything revolves around franchise cornerstone Zion Williamson, but Murray, C.J McCollum, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones are all going to require a significant amount of offensive opportunities even before Ingram is factored in. Add that to the fact that an extension for Trey Murphy III is looming on the horizon and the Pelicans are in a desperate situation.

Ingram is clearly available, but his $36 million dollar salary is not exactly a shoo-in for a wide variety of teams. That being said, one team that should be interested in his services is the Miami Heat. After losing in the first round to the eventual NBA champions in the Boston Celtics, the Heat look like a team destined for the play-in once again. In an improved Eastern Conference, they are in real danger of falling out of the play-in entirely if either Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo miss extended time.

Shooting is not the biggest need for the Atlanta Hawks, but it was not a strength in 2023-24. They finished 17th in three-point percentage despite taking the sixth-most attempts from deep. Adding shooters also gives Trae Young more space to operate, which is never a bad thing. By being a part of this deal, they can do exactly that.

What would a three-team deal that sends Ingram to Miami with Atlanta as the third team look like? Here is the trade:

Atlanta Hawks get: Duncan Robinson, Jordan Hawkins, 2027 2nd round pick (from Chicago Bulls, via New Orleans)

Miami Heat get: Brandon Ingram, C.J McCollum, Cody Zeller, 2027 1st round pick (least favorable of Milwaukee Bucks/New Orleans Pelicans, via Atlanta)

New Orleans Pelicans get: Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, DeAndre Hunter, 2025 2nd round pick (from Minnesota Timberwolves, via Atlanta), 2029 1st round pick (top-5 protected, via Miami), 2028 2nd round pick (from Houston Rockets, via Atlanta)

Why the Hawks would do this deal: Duncan Robinson's reputation as a shooter precedes him for good reason. He hit 39.5% of his three-pointers on seven attempts a game last year in a rebound season for the Miami wing. He also dished out a career-high 2.8 assists per game and graded out as a passable defender (-0.9 defensive box plus-minus). Robinson would be an incredibly effective sixth or seventh man in whatever lineup the Hawks choose to run. Hawkins is in a similar mold of player, albeit less proven. He showed promise as a movement shooter, finishing in the88th percentile for shooting coming off of a screen. He's an incredibly advanced shooter for his age and solid rebounder, but his value is currently capped because of his defensive limitations. Atlanta also moves off the long-term hinderances of the DeAndre Hunter deal and trim their center rotation by sending out Zeller.

Why the Hawks would not do this deal: Robinson's shooting fell off in 2022-23 and his defense made him unplayable for stretches of the year. If he has a similar season with Atlanta, the deal will be difficult to swallow. There's also the question of how much more offensive opportunity he can realistically take on in a Hawks' offense flush with scoring. Due to the defensive questions that both Robinson and Hawkins bring, this deal could severly compromise a defense that was already one of the NBA's worst.

Why the Heat would do this deal: Miami is one of the few contexts that makes perfect sense for Ingram. A backcourt of C.J McCollum and Jimmy Butler coupled with a wing rotation of Ingram, Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr that is also supported by Adebayo at the center position would put Miami in real contention for a top-four seed. McCollum is the only player in the rotation who can be targeted on defense, but Miami's defensive infrastructure and his own ability on offense should mitigate those problems. He shot 42.9% from deep on 8.4 attempts a game, which is incredible from both a volume and efficiency standpoint. With Herro and Rozier both gone, Miami has the shot attempts to give Ingram and McCollum in order to maximize their impact. They also give themselves a chance to mitigate the potential loss of Butler in free agency this summer. If a 34 year-old Butler declines his $52.4 million dollar player option in order to sign a long-term deal elsewhere, the Heat can sign Ingram to an extension with the cap space vacated by Butler's departure. That assumes Ingram performs well for Miami, but it's an excellent context for him. Being the third star who can occasionally elevate to a higher role during spurts of the regular season is ideally where Ingram should be in the hierarchy of a playoff-caliber NBA team. He fits perfectly as a third playmaker, recording5.7 assists to 2.5 turnovers while executing complex skip passes and finding corner shooters with ease. Ingram's hesitance to shoot three-pointers on high volume has been heavily discussed, but he was efficient on good volume from deep (39.1% on 6.2 attempts a game) when working off a primary playmaker in Jrue Holiday. The combination of McCollum and Butler should produce similar results. It's also important to mention that they get Cody Zeller back, who can be a good veteran presence for rookie big Ke'el Ware.

Why the Heat would not do this deal: Money is really the only thing stopping the Heat from executing this deal in a heartbeat. The prospect of giving Brandon Ingram a long-term extension, essentially securing him as the second or third star next to Bam Adebayo for the foreseeable future, is a daunting one. It might work in 2024-25, but the future would be more complicated for Miami even if they can afford to give Ingram a contract extension. There is also a somewhat significant chance that McCollum's defense prevents him from playing a major role in a playoff run for Miami.

Why the Pelicans would do this deal: If New Orleans is forced to do a deal, this one makes some sense. DeAndre Hunter can provide some of the shooting that Ingram gave while Herro's inefficiencies as a scorer should be masked in a smaller role. The Pelicans will funnel more of their offense through Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, which leaves Herro as the third or fourth option depending on Dejounte Murray. He might be better suited to rebuild his value as the effective sixth man he was two years ago. As an off-ball player, he fits a similar role to McCollum and is younger. Rozier is a fine backup point guard, but he is likely going to be on the move at the deadline. The Pelicans also net a potentially valuable first-round pick from Miami that is top-five protected. In the fifteen years of Spoelstra's time as head coach, the Heat have only finished with less than 40 wins twice. It's practically a guarantee that the pick is going to convey, which opens up more possibilities for New Orleans to re-tool their roster.

Why the Pelicans would not do this deal: All of Herro, Rozier and Hunter are owed $20+ million dollars over the next two seasons. It would make giving Trey Murphy III an extension more tricky and they still would not be assured of a top-four seed in the West. Herro and Hunter also stand out as players who miss a good deal of time and . If they are not able to contribute in New Orleans, the Pelicans will be sitting on a lot of wasted cap space.

While I think the Hawks ultimately are taking a big risk, I do like the upside that it presents for them. The chances of them drafting a player as good as Duncan Robinson with that 2027 first-round pick are far from guaranteed and he could even allow the Hawks to sell high on Bogdan Bogdanovic at the trade deadline. However, I do not think this deal would help the Pelicans in the long run and I expect they would ultimately back out.