New Blockbuster Three-Team Trade Proposal Sends Markkanen to Warriors, Hawks Get Backcourt Partner for Trae Young

Could the Hawks benefit from Golden State's strong desire to acquire Lauri Markkanen from the Utah Jazz?

Feb 3, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz forward/center Lauri Markkanen (23) takes a layup around Atlanta Hawks forward/center Onyeka Okongwu (17) during the second half at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports / Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest dominoes left to fall in the NBA offseason is the future of Lauri Markkenen.

The rumors around trading the Jazz forward have persisted throughout the entire summer and things are starting to come to a conclusion. August 6 looms as a possible deadline because the window for Markkanen to negotiate an extension with the Jazz opens up by that date.

On Monday, it was revealed that the Jazz are still interested in the Warriors' offer if it includes second-year guard Brandin Podziemski. NBA insider Marc Stein had this to say about the negotiations between the two teams:

"There is a belief in some corners of the league that Utah’s interest in Golden State’s Brandon Podziemski, in combination with future draft compensation that the Warriors could package with the All-Rookie first team selection, is serious enough that it keeps alive the prospect of a Markkanen trade between now and Aug. 6. That, as you’ve surely heard by now, is the first day Markkanen is eligible to renegotiate-and-extend his contract with the Jazz at a much higher number than his $18 million expiring salary for 2024-25."

Stein also provided more information on the players Golden State are willing to part with in exchange for Markkanen:

"Yet there is also a growing belief leaguewide that the Warriors would be more willing to move Jonathan Kuminga in a Markkanen trade — or any big-swing deal — than Podziemski. To this point, however, it must be noted that Golden State’s offers for Markkanen have entered around a package featuring Moses Moody and draft compensation without including Podziemski or Kuminga."

Yesterday, Tim Montemayor of the Salt Lake City-based podcast The Monty Show shared this about Golden State's competition for Markkanen:

"The San Antonio Spurs are willing to put in a third first-round pick and you can tell that they are seeing that they have to come with a sense of urgency to get this deal done. I’m telling you the Golden State Warriors, from what I was told yesterday, are firmly in the drivers seat to make this trade happen. There is no sense of urgency to make that deal happen now, today. The Jazz are going to drag this out as long as they can."

Assuming that Golden State decides to ramp up their offer, I think the Hawks could benefit from a Markkanen deal. Jazz president of basketball operations Danny Ainge likely will not accept a package that does not include either Jazz shooting guard Collin Sexton put up 18.7 points, a carer-high 5 assists and 3 rebounds a game on 39% from three-point range and a true shooting percentage of 60%. He has turned himself into an impactful player on defense for a Jazz team that is not exactly flush with defensive stoppers. On paper, he'd be a hand-in-glove fit next to Trae Young because he can benefit from the gravity Young has and hold up on defense. Dyson Daniels, who the Hawks acquired from the Pelicans, could be that player if his shooting comes around, but the Hawks are currently gambling on that.

With the Warriors' interest in Markkanen, the Hawks' need for a shooting guard and the Jazz's interest in capitalizing on Markkanen's value, a three-team trade could make sense for everyone. What would a potential deal look like?

It should be noted that this is just a speculative and fun exercise to see what kind of moves can be made, not what I think the Hawks should do or will do. That is all.

Here is the trade:

Hawks get: Gary Payton II, Collin Sexton, Kevon Looney, 2025 1st round pick (top-15 protected, via Minnesota), 2026 2nd round pick (via Atlanta, via GSW), 2031 2nd round pick (via GSW)

Warriors get: Kobe Bufkin, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler

Jazz get: DeAndre Hunter, Larry Nance Jr, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, 2025 1st round pick (via GSW), 2026 1st round pick swap (via GSW), 2027 1st round pick (top-10 protected, via GSW), 2027 1st round pick (least favorable of Milwaukee/New Orleans, via Atlanta), 2025 2nd round pick (via Minnesota, via Atlanta)

Why the Hawks would do this deal: Atlanta's starting lineup immediately gets a boost with Young-Sexton-Risacher-Johnson-Okongwu/Capela. Sexton provides the defensive support Young needs while also serving as an aggressive finisher who can also stretch the floor. This move would allow the Hawks to keep Bogdan Bogdanovic in his hyper-effective sixth man role while having the option to run a Sexton-Daniels backcourt for situations that call for more defense. Gary Payton II's defense took a notable hit as he declined in steals, defensive win shares and defensive box plus-minus. However, he was hampered by injuries last year and it's possible he could return to the athletic play finisher with high-level defense that he was for the Warriors' championship run. Kevon Looney is definitely a redundancy on this roster as presumably the third-string center, but he could have some value at the trade deadline for contenders in need of a big. He's a great rebounder and excellent locker room presence, so Atlanta could benefit even if he sticks on the roster. Atlanta also recoups a first-round pick from Utah in a potentially loaded 2025 NBA Draft. Even though the pick is likely going to be in the 20s, the Hawks selected Jalen Johnson with the 20th overall pick in 2021. There is value to be found in the late first round. To top it all off, the Hawks shed nearly $20 million dollars in cap space with this move.

Why the Hawks would not do this deal: Moving on from Bufkin in this deal would definitely hurt as they took him only a year ago in the 2023 NBA Draft. A 6'5 guard with his two-way potential is a piece that the Hawks would like to hold on to. Payton II not recovering from his injuries would definitely be dissapointing while the redundancy that Looney has is not ideal for maximizing every dollar of cap space. The chances of his $8 million dollar contract being a net positive for Atlanta are fairly low, even considering his off-the-court intangibles.

Why the Warriors would do this deal: A lineup of Curry - Buddy Hield - Draymond Green - Markkanen - Trayce Jackson-Davis/Walker Kessler is not perfect, but it should be enough to make a convincing run at a playoff spot even in a loaded Western Conference. Markkanen is a 7-foot small forward who would be the Warriors' secondary scorer. Last season, he averaged 23.2 points and 8.2 rebounds on a true shooting percentage of 63%, 40% from three on eight attempts per game and 41.4 percent on catch-and-shoot threes. He's a perfect fit for the Warriors' system and the defensive ability of a Draymond - Lauri - TJD lineup is exciting to think about. Golden State also retains Moses Moody to provide offense off the bench while DeAnthony Melton's health and a bounce-back Andrew Wiggins season become less important factors. To surround Curry with size, they could even put a lineup of Curry - Green - Wiggins - Markkanen - TJD out on the court. Kessler is a good rim protector (#1 in rim points saved per possession for players under 25) who can fill in for TJD or even start over him. If he can stay healthy, Bufkin can develop into a great backup guard for Golden State. He flashed two-way upside in limited minutes for Atlanta - putting players like him around Steph is a fairly airtight strategy.

Why the Warriors would not do this deal: Giving up both Kuminga and Podziemski after being reluctant to include them in deals would be hard to swallow. They are also effectively investing their future for the next three years in a player who has never played in the playoffs before. The risk is evident, but this is probably what it would take to get Lauri. If the Warriors are serious about not wasting the last few years of Curry's elite play, high-risk moves have to be in consideration.

Why the Jazz would do this deal: Getting four first-round picks and two young players with exciting upside is a very good return for Markkanen. Utah's asset pool is already only rivaled by the Thunder - they could have three first-round picks in three consecutive drafts before making this deal - and this would push it over the top into ridiculous levels. They swap out a Minnesota pick that will likely be towards the back of the first-round for a better Warriors pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. However, the underrated part of this deal is that it gives Utah a real chance to evaluate its talent while ensuring they will remain in contention for the first overall pick. Their starting lineup of Keyonte George - Podziemski - Kuminga - Taylor Hendricks - John Collins/Drew Eubanks is good enough to be competitive in most games. DeAndre Hunter also makes sense as a 3&D forward whose role is malleable. He had arguably the best stretch of his career when he came off the bench for Atlanta last season, but has started games in the past. Although his $20+ million dollar salary would make him an expensive bench piece on other teams, Utah has the salary cap space to spare. They can always dump Jordan Clarkson's salary at the deadline if they need more flexibility. By trading Kessler, acquiring Larry Nance Jr. also makes more sense since he can play center and would be a good locker room presence for a young team like Utah.

Why the Jazz would not do this deal: They are taking on about $5 million in salary and may not want to do that from a taxpayer perspective. It would be fairly easy to reduce their salary by either trading Clarkson or John Collins to get below the tax. However, moving Hunter's contract if they find an adequate replacement for him would be difficult considering the amount of money he makes. Ultimately, those are problems that the Jazz probably should not worry about since they are likely two years away from really needing to worry about their finances.