New Blockbuster Three-Team Trade Proposal Sends Simons to Magic, Atlanta Lands Young Wing, Blazers Fill Up Rotation

Could Atlanta take a swing on a young wing with 3&D upside as the third team in a deal that sends Anfernee Simons to the Magic?

Mar 13, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray (5) attempts to steal the basketball during the first half against Portland Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons (1) at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Although the NBA off-season is beginning to wind down, one name that has elicited a lot of chatter on the trade market is Anfernee Simons.

The young Blazers guard set career highs in points per game (22.6), assists (5.5) and rebounds (3.6) on a true shooting percentage of 56.8% and a three-point percentage of 38.5% on nine attempts a game. He is a high-volume option from beyond the arc and threatens defenses as a midrange shooter. Furthermore, he has shown the ability to function both on and off the ball as a shooter. He brings a level of dynamic scoring that increases the offensive output of any backcourt. However, Portland already has a bevy of young guard options in Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. Simons has not shown the ability to be a primary option and has two years remaining on a four year, $100 million dollar contract. Therefore, the Blazers are reportedly interested in trading him.

It was reported by Aaron Fentress of the Oregonian on July 30th that the Blazers are likely to move one of Simons or forward Jerami Grant. During his appearance on Sactown Sports 1140, Fentress had this to say:

“I would be surprised if Jerami Grant or Anfernee Simons, if one of the two is not moved. I was told that that’s definitely the goal, that one of the two would probably be gone before training camp. Both being gone? That might be different. They obviously have time. They can wait until the trade deadline and see if someone else will offer more."

The Orlando Magic could use a floor-spacing guard with a scoring punch. They finished with the fifth-worst team three-point percentage in the NBA at 34.8%. Jalen Suggs was the only effective volume three-point shooter on the roster and their lack of shooting played a huge role in their first-round exit in last year's playoffs. To address that weakness, they added shooting guard Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and a capable wing shooter in Tristan da Silva. However, a player like Simons could make sense as he would bolster their shooting and give them another source of offense beyond star wings Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Moving one of the four centers on their roster - Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu, Cody Zeller and Larry Nance Jr. - has to be a priority for the Hawks front office. They are likely going to make Okongwu the starter, so a trade that moves either Capela or Nance would be important. Capela's salary of $22 million makes him a tough player to fit into a variety of trades, but Nance's salary of $11.2 million is much easier to use in salary-matching moves. Any move that allows them to move Capela/Nance without increasing payroll would be welcome for the Hawks.

Given Orlando's need for more scoring, Portland's desire for picks/salary flexibility and Atlanta's interest in trimming down its center rotation, a three-team deal could make sense. What would sucha. deal look like?

It should be noted that this is just a speculative and fun exercise to see what kind of moves can be made, not what I think the Hawks should do or will do. That is all.

Hawks get: Jett Howard, Matisse Thybulle

Magic get: Garrison Mathews, Anfernee Simons, Duop Reath

Blazers get: Larry Nance Jr, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr, 2025 1st round pick (via Denver, via Orlando, top-5 protected by Denver, top-12 protected by Orlando)

Why the Hawks would do this trade: For the price of Larry Nance Jr and Garrison Mathews, Atlanta gets two wings who could become 3&D options for them. Swapping Nance's salary for Thybulle makes much more sense - he racks up steals (2.5 steals per 36 minutes) and gets into passing lanes with regularity. He could be the perimeter stopper that Atlanta has lacked in past seasons. Thybulle is not a reliable three-point shooter, but he will not need to be for the Hawks. As a 15-20 minute per game player buoyed by offensive options like Trae Young and Jalen Johnson, there's reason to believe he can be a useful piece for Atlanta's rotation. Howard is more of an upside swing. The former lottery pick has shown that he is a reliable three-point shooter, posting a three-point percentage of 37.7% on good volume in the G League. He followed up his G League stint by averaging 19.0 points and 3.3 assists on a shooting percentage of 47.6% in Summer League. He is still growing as a defender and does not offer much as a playmaker. However, the Hawks have the luxury of putting him in College Park and letting him grow as a defender. As a 6'8 guard, he does have the tools to grow into a good defender with time. Orlando's need for offense means that they cannot afford to give him that time, but Atlanta can.

Why the Hawks would not do this trade: If Thybulle never finds his shot in Atlanta, this deal could look bad. However, I'd argue there are few reasons for Atlanta to not do this deal. Mathews is a good player, but hardly indispensable to the rotation. Instead of paying Nance to be a logjam, they have a need for Thybulle's skills and further improve their depth if Howard is able to deliver on his potential.

Why the Magic would do this trade: Getting Simons and Reath for a first-round pick in the 20s, a guard that fell out of their rotation and a center who has struggled to stay healthy is a low-risk, high-upside move. Simons takes some of the scoring load off of Wagner and Banchero while being able to complement them as an off-ball shooter. Per Synergy Sports, he finished in the 96th percentile in wide-open three-point percentage. They can mitigate his defensive struggles with their size and solid defensive infrastructure. Furthermore, they also have the option of substituting him for the more defensively-oriented Jalen Suggs. Mathews is a bench wing who can hit open three-point shots (44% from three-point range on three attempts a game) and occupies the same role Howard would have fulfilled. They also get a viable backup center in Reath, who sets good screens and shoots three-pointers at a decent clip (35.9% on four attempts a game). I think the Magic will continue to try Jonathan Isaac at the center position - they found some success with it during the regular season and used it during the Cavs series. The results were mixed, but it could prove to work with more minutes. Between Reath, Goga Bitazde and Mo Wagner, Orlando would have enough depth to keep Isaac healthy while also ensuring they can function without Carter.

Why the Magic would not do this trade: If Simons doesn't develop into the perfect third option and his defensive shortcomings become untenable, his contract will hamstring the Magic over the next few seasons. Furthermore, while Carter is not a high-level option, he plays strong post defense, passes well and spaces the floor at a better level than Reath. He contributed to the Magic being one of the five best defenses in the league - losing him could affect that strength of the roster. In short, he's a connective piece for the roster on both offense and defense. Sending him out could cause more problems than it solves.

Why the Blazers would do this trade: Portland does not take on any long-term money in return for a player likely absent from their long-term future. If they decide to move on from DeAndre Ayton, they have a credible replacement in Wendell Carter Jr. Carter spaces the floor well enough to where he could theoretically be more of a power forward and play next to Donovan Clingan. As a former Blazer and veteran, Nance provides a good locker room presense, high basketball IQ and connective passing for a team in need of all three. Cole Anthony is a score-first guard with some playmaking ability. He can get the ball to either Scoot Henderson or Shaedon Sharpe as they continue to develop. Perhaps most importantly, the Blazers land another 2025 first-round pick in a draft that projects to be loaded. If there is a prospect they like, they will have the ammo to trade up for them with two first-round picks.

Why the Blazers would not do this trade: At 24 years old, Anthony has likely reached most of his upside and likely will not be a part of the Blazers' long-term plans. He also really struggled to find consistency on offense, declining in efficiency as the season went on. He also turned the ball over regularly on offense, recording 2.9 assists to 1.6 turnovers during the regular season. The Blazers would also have a severe logjam at center with Ayton, Clingan, Robert Williams III, Carter Jr and Nance Jr all projecting to be centers. Ayton and Carter have some ability to play as a power forward, but it's certainly less than ideal to have five centers on the roster.