New Blockbuster Three-Team Trade Sends Nance to Pistons, Isaiah Stewart to Bucks, Hawks Land Sixth Man

Could the Atlanta Hawks be involved in the Milwaukee Bucks' efforts to duck below the second apron?

Dec 23, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Detroit Pistons center Isaiah Stewart (28) shoots while warming up prior to the game against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

At this time of the off-season, most of the major dominoes have already fallen. Teams are now considering moves on the margin that will improve their overall depth. For championship contenders, those moves are especially critical because they could mean the difference between a first-round upset and an NBA Finals run.

The Milwaukee Bucks are an example of exactly that team - a championship contender limited to margin moves that will hopefully give their trio of stars the support they need. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Damian Lillard is a championship-caliber core on paper, but they lost in the first round of the 2023-24 playoffs due to lackluster depth and injuries. They upgraded their rotation with veteran minimum additions in Taurean Prince, Delon Wright and Gary Trent Jr, but they are still over the second apron of the salary cap. They will need to make a trade sooner rather than later in order to duck the second apron restrictions. It's why they reportedly put two of their veterans, forward Bobby Portis and guard Pat Connaughton, on the trading block according to NBA insider Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports.

Fischer had this to say in his column a month ago and there have been no new reports since then:

"Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis have continued to be mentioned as trade candidates."

The Bucks' need to make such a trade could be fruitful for both the Hawks and the Pistons. The Hawks always have a need for off-ball players to put around Trae Young. They also need capable defenders (bottom-five team defensive rating in the NBA) and could stand to add more three-point shooting, finishing 16th in three-point percentage despite taking the sixth-most attempts from deep. Detroit also needs shooting and defense, but could realistically use just about everything as they search for players that make sense around their franchise point guard, Cade Cunningham.

Given these teams' respective situations, a three-team deal could make some sense. What would such a trade look like?

It should be noted that this is just a speculative and fun exercise to see what kind of moves can be made, not what I think the Hawks should do or will do. That is all.

Here is the trade:

Hawks get: Bobby Portis, 2027 2nd-round pick (from Dallas/Brooklyn, via Detroit), 2029 2nd round pick (from Milwaukee, via Detroit)

Bucks get: Isaiah Stewart

Pistons get: Larry Nance Jr, Pat Connaughton, 2026 1st-round pick (least favorable of Milwaukee/New Orleans, via Milwaukee)

Why the Hawks would do this deal: Portis would an interesting acquisition for Atlanta. He finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting because he put up 13.8 points and 7.4 rebounds on 50.8/40.7/79% shooting splits. However, it was really a tale of two seasons for Portis. He struggled mightily in the first half of the season before the Bucks fired head coach Adrian Griffin and brought in Doc Rivers. Under Rivers, he put up 15.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists while making 43.9% of his three-pointers. As an injury insurance for power forward Jalen Johnson, who only played 56 games last season, Portis is a very solid fill-in. He doesn't bring Johnson's defense, but can replicate some of Johnson's scoring utility. The Hawks finished sixth in overall rebounding last year, but struggled to get defensive rebounds (21st in said category). Portis can help with that problem and reduce some of the impact from possibly starting Onyeka Okongwu over Clint Capela at center, the latter of which is an excellent rebounder. Atlanta also trims its logjam at center down to three, which makes more sense, and gives themselves another contract that is tradeable at the deadline or next off-season in future moves. They also get two second-round picks in the deal, which could be useful since they project to be decently favorable.

Why the Hawks would not do this deal: The biggest question with Portis is his defense. Atlanta already struggled on defense last season - Portis graded out as a negative defender by defensive box plus-minus with a horrific defensive rating of 116. He's been a better defender throughout his career, but it's possible that Atlanta's lack of a high-level defensive infrastructure could lead to Portis continuing to struggle on defense. He also brings the Hawks a bit closer to the luxury tax threshold, which is important to consider since Hawks ownership is almost certainly not going to pay the luxury tax for this roster.

Why the Bucks would do this deal: Isaiah Stewart makes sense for the Bucks in a few different ways. First, he instantly becomes the best young player they have on their roster. They have one of the oldest cores in the league and have struggled to develop young talent. Secondly, longtime starting center Brook Lopez is 36 years old and on an expiring contract. Stewart could play that position once Lopez leaves the team. However, the Bucks are also getting a player who can hold up as either a power forward or center, has some shooting upside (38.3% on 3.8 attempts a game from deep, 75.3% from the free throw line) and projects to be an solid defender. He has a great motor, can stay in front of smaller players and brings some of the hustle/energy intangibles that Portis has. At 23 years old, there's a decent chance that he grows into a longtime staple of the Bucks' rotation. Given the Bucks' win-now approach, this is a nice balance between the present and the future. They also move off of Connaughton's salary and get below the second apron.

Why the Bucks would not do this deal: Stewart is far from a complete player and his shooting touch is not consistent or highly advanced. There is also a chance that he would not get enough minutes to develop in 2024-25 since Giannis and Lopez are already entrenched at his two main positions.

Why the Pistons would do this deal: Larry Nance and Connaughton are both experienced veterans with useful roles in a rebuilding team. Nance is a good passer who can hit open three-pointers (41.5% on 1.1 attempts a game) and brings a high basketball IQ to a young Pistons squad. He can help in the development of young center Jalen Duren. Connaughton has had two straight down seasons from three-point range (34.5% on 3 attempts a game in 2023-24). However, the Pistons are starved for shooting at the moment and can give Connaughton the attempts he needs to build his numbers back. Nance's salary also expires at the end of the year, so Detroit preserves its future flexibility as well. However, the biggest win of this deal for the Pistons would be the Bucks' 2026 1st-round pick. The 2026 draft class projects to be reasonably deep with talent - Detroit could use that pick to select a talented prospect who falls or trade up for one of their targets.

Why the Pistons would not do this deal: Connaughton's two straight years of subpar numbers from beyond the arc are extremely worrying. If he is not making his threes, he has very little value on a NBA roster. He is not a great defender and can be easily targeted on an already-lackluster Pistons defense. Furthermore, Nance is a good player, but the Pistons already signed a backup center in Paul Reed. Both players could ultimately prove to have small roles in Detroit, which would be disappointing since they make a combined $20.6 million dollars.

Who says no? I think the Pistons would ultimately say no. Nance and Connaughton are not clean fits on the roster and Detroit needs to find players that are good fits around Cunningham. That being said, I think this would make Atlanta and Milwaukee better. Milwaukee would be the clear winner in this deal while Atlanta would be able to upgrade their forward depth as they attempt to make a playoff push in 2024-25.