Spread and Score Predictions: Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat

Jackson Caudell | Apr 9, 2024

Jan 19, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) shoots the ball against the / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Hawks have two home games left in the regular season and one of them is tonight vs the Miami Heat. Both teams come into tonight's game in need of a win to improve their standing in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament or in Miami's case, get out of it altogether.

The Hawks are coming into this game on a two-game losing streak and are hoping they can get rolling here as the regular season comes to an end and they can be playing their best basketball. Atlanta will still be without Trae Young for this game and will be leaning on Dejounte Murray to lift them to a home win vs Miami. 

After winning Eastern Conference Player Of The Week, Murray cooled off a little last week, scoring 20 points only once in four games. He has been struggling shooting from the field and if Atlanta's supporting cast does not deliver on nights when Murray is not as productive, the Hawks are usually in big trouble. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been one of the Hawks's best players this season and he is coming off of a night where he shot 75% from three. Bogdanovic is a huge part of the Hawks' offense due to his three-point shooting ability and when he gets going, he can put up a huge scoring total. He had 38 in a loss vs Milwaukee a week ago. 

De'Andre Hunter is going to have a lot of responsibility tonight on both ends of the floor. Hunter might be the Hawks's best perimeter defender and will spend time guarding Jimmy Butler tonight. He can be inconsistent on the offensive end, but Hunter can be one of the Hawks's most impactful players on any given night. 

Jalen Johnson is the other player who could see some time guarding Butler tonight. Johnson has been one of the NBA's most improved players this season on both ends of the floor and recorded his first career triple-double last week vs Detroit. Whether it is scoring, rebounding, or playmaking, Johnson has been able to do it all for the Hawks this season. 

Clint Capela is one of the defensive anchors for the Hawks and their best rebounder. While he can miss some easy baskets, Capela is one of the Hawks most important players due to his strengths and he will be tasked with guarding Bam Adebayo tonight. 

The Hawks rotation will likely consist of Kobe Bufkin, Garrison Matthews, Vit Krejci, and Bruno Fernando. Bufkin has shown the ability to be an impactful two-way player as a rookie, while Matthews and Krejci are two of Atlanta's better shooters. Fernando can be inconsistent as the backup center but can bring energy and toughness on most nights. 

Coming into this game, Atlanta ranks 5th in PPG, 20th in field goal percentage, 7th in three-point attempts, 15th in three-point percentage, 7th in free throw attempts, 2nd in offensive rebounding, and 16th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks are 10th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in effective field goal percentage, 11th in turnover percentage, 5th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 12th in free throw rate. 

The Hawks have had a problem with the Heat for the past few years and a lot of it has to do with the Heat's defense and physicality. Not much has changed for Miami this year, as they rank 4th in PPG allowed, 10th in field goal percentage allowed, and 8th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Miami is 7th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 16th in effective field goal percentage allowed. 

Miami has had a hard time staying healthy this season, but they are relatively healthy coming into tonight's game. The report to watch is if Terry Rozier will play tonight, as he is questionable. 

The problems for Miami are usually on offense and that is again the case this year. The Heat are 27th in PPG, 23rd in field goal percentage, 18th in three-point attempts, 13th in three-point percentage, 13th in free throw attempts, 27th in offensive rebounding, and 3rd in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Miami is 21st in points per 100 possessions, 21st in effective field goal percentage, 9th in turnover percentage, 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 7th in free throw rate. 

The Heat still have plenty of talent though. Jimmy Butler is one of the most feared players this time of year and guys like Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro can make big differences, especially against this Hawks defense which ranks 28th in PPG allowed, 26th in field goal percentage allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage. 

Viewing and Betting Information

Tip-off time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass, Bally Sports Southeast, 

Spread and Over/Under: The Hawks will be underdogs at home tonight, as they are currently 3.5 point underdogs according to the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook and the over/under is set at 220.5.

Predictions:

Miami is always a tough matchup for Atlanta, no matter where the game is played. Both teams need this game in hopes of improving their postseason outlook, but I think it is safe to say the Heat need it more. Miami wants to get out of the play-in tournament and avoid a potential first round matchup with the Celtics. This is a matchup where Atlanta could use Trae Young, but they won't have him. I think it will be a close game, but Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are the top two players on the floor. Heat win a close one.

Final Score: Miami 112, Atlanta 107 (Miami -3.5, Under)