Spread and Score Predictions: Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks

Jackson Caudell | Mar 30, 2024

Mar 28, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray (5) shoots over Boston / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Hawks are hoping to keep the good times rolling tonight when they face the Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight. It will be the last game of a five-game homestand for Atlanta and they are looking to finish it with a perfect record.

They might be getting back some reinforcements as well. Jalen Johnson (right ankle sprain) was upgraded to questionable yesterday and he could make his return after reinjuring his ankle in a loss vs the Lakers. Milwaukee is going to be missing one of their key pieces tonight, as Damian Lillard is not going to be able to suit up. Still, the Bucks have Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton and will be tough to handle in this rematch of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. 

With Trae Young out, Dejounte Murray has had to take it upon himself to create more offense for the Hawks and he has done so, none more evident than last game vs Boston. Murray shot the ball 44 times including 19 threes, and scored 44 points and the Hawks needed every one of them. The Bucks do not have defenders like Jrue Holiday and Derrick White and on paper, this is an easier matchup for him as a scorer. I don't know if he scores over 40 again, but he should have the shot volume. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been playing well this week, especially in the two games against the Celtics. His three-point shooting has dipped to below 30% in the last two games, but he is getting to the basket and scoring still. He can also take advantage of a weaker Milwaukee perimeter defense. 

After having the game of his life on Monday vs Boston, Vit Krejci has scored nine points in the last two games behind. The Hawks don't need him to score a lot, but the offense is better when he can hit threes and contribute on offense. If Johnson is back tonight, Krejci could move to the bench, unless Johnson comes off the bench. 

De'Andre Hunter has moved back into the starting lineup with Johnson out and I don't see the Hawks taking him out. He is playing major minutes now after being on a minutes restriction coming back from his injury. He shot the ball well from three in both games against Boston and he will likely be tasked with guarding Middleton tonight as well. 

It will be interesting to see how the Hawks use Johnson tonight if he plays. Will he start and play his normal amount of minutes? Will he come off the bench? Atlanta could use him back, but there is no need to rush him back. 

Mar 18, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) dunks the ball / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The player that might be the most important for the Hawks tonight is Clint Capela, who is playing his best basketball of the season. Capela has a double-double in 10 of the last 11 games and one area where the Bucks struggle is rebounding. The Hawks scored 28 second-chance points against the Celtics on Thursday and that was the difference in the game. He might also spend time guarding Giannis tonight. 

The bench players for the Hawks have been playing well during this winning streak, especially Garrison Matthews. Matthews is shooting the ball well from three and brings scoring off the bench. Bruno Fernando, Trent Forrest, and Wesley Matthews are other guys you will likely see tonight. 

Viewing and Betting information

Tip-off time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass, Bally Sports Southeast, NBATV

Spread and Over/Under: The Hawks will be underdogs at home tonight, as they are currently 3.5 point underdogs according to the latest odds from the SI Sportsbook and the over/under is set at 224.5.

Prediction

The Hawks are playing well right now and the Bucks are going to be without Damian Lillard tonight. Still, Milwaukee is going to have the best player on the floor tonight, but I think the Hawks can find advantages in places. They are a strong rebounding team while Milwaukee is not and the Bucks don't have guys like Jrue Holiday and Derrick White to guard Murray or Bogdanovic. I think this could be a high scoring game and given the way Atlanta is playing right now, why can't they win it?

Final Score: Hawks 115, Bucks 111 (ATL +3.5, Over 224.5)