Spread and Score Predictions: Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Jackson Caudell | Apr 12, 2024

Oct 30, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray (5) dribbles against / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Hawks have two games left in the regular season and one of them will be against one of the NBA's best teams, the Minnesota Timberwolves. These two teams have taken very different paths since their first meeting back on October 30th, with Minnesota vying for the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference and Atlanta heading into the No. 10 spot and the NBA's play-in tournament.

Atlanta is going to be a massive underdog tonight and it could get bigger depending on how the injury report breaks later. Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela are questionable tonight and without them, the Hawks are not going to stand much of a chance. Not only that, Minnesota is expected to get back Karl-Anthony Towns tonight.

The Hawks's offense revolves around Young and Murray, but Atlanta might be without Murray tonight and Young still might be on a minutes restriction. He played 20 minutes in the loss to the Hornets on Wednesday but did have an effect on the game. He finished with 14 points and 11 assists and made some passes that would make you forget he was ever injured. It will be interesting to see how cautious Quin Snyder is with Young tonight considering they are locked into the No. 10 spot. 

If Murray plays, I don't think he is going to play heavy minutes as usual. Murray has been playing in excess of 40 minutes most nights without Young and has had to carry the load on the offensive end. Snyder might opt to rest Murray tonight and start Bogdan Bogdanovic. In the last meeting with the Timberwolves back at the beginning of the season, Murray led a big comeback. 

Bogdanovic has been a starter for the Hawks while Young has been out, but Snyder kept his minutes down in Wednesday's game vs Charlotte. He will start if Murray does not play, but will come off the bench if he does play. He is one of the Hawks's best players when on the floor and can get hot and score 30+ points on any given night. 

De'Andre Hunter is one of the Hawks's most important players and their best perimeter defender. It would not surprise me to see him get minutes guarding Anthony Edwards tonight. Offensively, Hunter can be inconsistent, but he has nights where he shoots the three well and makes a difference on the glass. 

With Jalen Johnson out, Vit Krejci is likely going to be in the starting lineup in his place. Krejci has been quite the find for the Hawks, shooting well from three, showing the ability to drive and find the open passer, and not being a negative on defense. It is a small sample size, but Krejci is playing well. 

Capela and Bruno Fernando are the only centers on the team and if Capela does not play, I don't know what the Hawks's plan there will be. Fernando can't play 48 minutes and that will result in the Hawks having to play small against one of the biggest teams in the league. If he does play, I think there is a good chance Fernando plays more minutes anyway. 

I could see Snyder electing to give heavy minutes to the bench unit tonight. Kobe Bufkin, Trent Forrest, Garrison Matthews, Fernando, and Dylan Windler are all likely to see opportunities tonight. Snyder closed with Forrest, Bufkin, Windler, Krejci, and Fernando on Wednesday vs Charlotte. AJ Griffin was upgraded to questionable, but he has not played a huge role for the Hawks this year. That could change tonight. 

Coming into this game, Atlanta ranks 6th in PPG, 20th in field goal percentage, 6th in three-point attempts, 17th in three-point percentage, 7th in free throw attempts, 2nd in offensive rebounding, and 16th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks are 10th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in effective field goal percentage, 11th in turnover percentage, 5th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 13th in free throw rate.

Defensively, the Hawks will be matched up with a below-average offense, but their defense is still among the league's worst. Minnesota might be getting Towns back and have a superstar in Anthony Edwards, who could erupt for a huge scoring night any given night. Not to mention, Mike Conley has been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA this year. 

Minnesota comes into this game 18th in PPG, 10th in field goal percentage, 23rd in three-point attempts, 2nd in three-point shooting percentage, 9th in free throw attempts, 25th in offensive rebounding, and 19th in turnovers. They are going against an Atlanta defense that is 27th in PPG allowed, 27th in field goal percentage allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage. 

The Hawks are going to have their hands full tonight against the NBA's best defense. Minnesota has been the best defense in the NBA for much of the year and center Rudy Gobert might be in line for another defensive player of the Year award. Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are excellent defenders as well. 

Coming into the game, the Timberwolves are 1st in PPG allowed, 1st in field goal percentage allowed, and 5th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Minnesota is 1st in points allowed per 100 possessions and 1st in effective field goal percentage. 

iewing and Betting Information

Tip-off time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time

Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass, Bally Sports Southeast,

Spread and Over/Under: The Hawks will be big underdogs on the road tonight, as they are currently 14.0 point underdogs according to the latest odds from the SI Sportsbook and the over/under is set at 225.5.

Predictions:

If Atalnta gets Murray and Capela to play, there is always a chance the game is closer than expected. Even if they play though, I could see Quin Snyder opting to not play them major minutes and that goes for all of Atlanta's starters. The Hawks are locked into the No. 10 spot no matter what and will go to Chicago to face the Bulls next week. I think Atlanta will look ahead to that and play a lot of their bench players more minutes and Minnesota will roll to a victory.

Final Score: Timberwolves 118, Atlanta 103 (Minnesota -14, Under)