The Atlanta Hawks Have a Pernicious Problem At Power Forward - Can It Be Fixed?

In the wake of Jalen Johnson's injury, the combination of Georges Niang and Mo Gueye to replace him in the aggregate has not worked out as planned.

Rohan Raman | Mar 1, 2025

Feb 28, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) shoots past Atlanta Hawks forward Mouhamed Gueye (18) in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

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Atlanta Hawks

To be clear, the Atlanta Hawks don't have a long-term problem at the power forward position. Jalen Johnson is firmly entrenched as a starter as one of the most exciting two-way forces in basketball. Once again, it's the fact that things get dicey when he isn't in the lineup.

In the 36 games Johnson played this season, he averaged 18.9 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 2.6 stocks per game on 50.0/31.2/74.6 shooting splits. Even though the 23-year old took a step back as a shooter from deep, he recorded career-highs in assist percentage (21.1%), box plus-minus (1.7) and rebound percentage (15.1%). He was making more of an all-around impact and from October to December, he averaged 19.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists on 50.9/33.1/74.8 splits. Averaging a 20-point double-double on solid efficiency while simulatenously being the team's best defender is an incredibly impressive. Therefore, it's not surprising Atlanta has struggled to replace him.

After the trade deadline, the Hawks have gone with a combination of Mo Gueye and Georges Niang to hold down the PF spot. Gueye will often be listed as the starter, but Niang still plays 25-30 minutes a night. For example, in their most recent game against the Thunder, Gueye only played 10 minutes and Niang started the second half. There are flashes of Gueye being able to develop into an impactful power forward. He's a very active defender who hustles to get into the right position and he's a solid shot-blocker. On offense, he's an athletic lob threat and finishes on 73.9% of his shots from around the rim. For some reference, that's the rate that Clint Capela finished at during his best seasons for Atlanta. Obviously, the sample size of shots is much smaller for Gueye, but there are some interesting tools to work. As a shooter, he's currently not a real threat from deep, but holds a career mark of 80% from the FT line. Strong FT shooting is often a good indication of untapped development as a shooter, so it's not outside the realm of possibility to think Gueye could become a 32%-33% shooter on around 3 attempts per game from deep. Even if that part of his game never really develops, there are compelling reasons for why Gueye deserves to be a part of this rotation going forward.

However, he has a dreadful offensive box plus-minus score of -3.0 and he clogs up the spacing for a Hawks team that already struggles with their shooting from deep. He isn't impactful enough on defense to make up for that. There are games where he puts everything together - like his 15 point, 12 rebound, 4 block effort against the Bucks where he also went 2/6 from deep. Even so, it isn't consistent enough for Atlanta to justify giving him big minutes at the 4.

Playing Niang results in the opposite problem. As a shooter, there's few players that are more proven than Niang. He owns a career mark of 39.8% from deep and feasts on catch-and-shoot threes. For Atlanta, he's shooting 41.7% from deep on a staggering 7.5 attempts per game. He's good at playing off of Trae Young and has a good sense of where to be on offense. He's also averaging 4.8 rebounds in his eight games as a Hawk, which is easily a career-high. Even though he can't create his own shot, there's no doubt that Niang is a solid complementary piece in a offense that has Young at its center.

Yet, he's not athletic enough to really hold up on defense for an extended period of time. He lacks the quickness and agility to keep athletic forwards in front of him and doesn't have much verticality to his game. Closing out on shooters has always been a challenge for him and while his rebounding his been better, it's still below the ideal mark for a power forward. For some reference, he currently has a defensive box plus-minus of -1.3, which would be his worst mark since his rookie season.

Thus, regardless of what the Hawks do, they're sacrificing something significant on either end. Giving Gueye significant minutes is usually a death knell for the offense while a heavy workload for Niang means that the opposing offense can target him. It's a tough problem to solve, especially after the trade deadline.

Unfortunately, there probably isn't a real fix for this season. As long as Johnson returns from his injury healthy next season, the PF problem will be an ancillary issue. However, there are two countermeasures head coach Quin Snyder can deploy for the rest of the 2024-25 campaign.

One possible answer would be to run a lineup that has Caris LeVert as the starting small forward and Zaccharie Risacher as the power forward. Risacher's defensive instincts have translated fairly well to the NBA and he has the quickness to keep up with athletic forwards. He's also shooting 43.6% from deep in his last 10 games and has played PF before. However, he's only 19 and really lacks the strength to hold up in those matchups. He has also lost time to injuries already this season and playing more minutes at PF increases the risk of missing extended time that would set Risacher's development back. LeVert is also probably overtaxed as a consistent starter. He's a fairly streaky scorer who hasn't been shooting the ball particularly well during his time with Atlanta (32.6% from deep on 5.4 attempts a game). Even so, it's a more balanced lineup than playing one of Gueye or Niang.

A different solution could be to move Dyson Daniels into the starting SF spot while making Terance Mann the starting shooting guard next to Young. Daniels has been so good guarding ball-handlers that it's hard to justify moving him off that spot. Even though he has a DBPM of -0.8, Mann is a pretty solid defender and currently shoots 57.9% from deep on 2.4 attempts per game. That number is not going to hold up for a larger sample, but it's enough spacing to keep the offense at a relative baseline without making the defense work. However, the benefit of having Daniels in the lineup is that his 6'8 size allows him to take on matchups against wings and survive. He might not have the strength to do it full-time, but it is a different look that could help Atlanta survive on both ends.

Neither solution is definitively the right answer, but there aren't that many games left in the regular season and Atlanta seems destined for the play-in tournament. As the current 9th seed, they're slated to play the Bulls in the play-in and the winner of Heat vs Magic before likely going on to play one of Cleveland or Boston. They cannot afford to have their losses pile up because it reduces their margin for error in the tournament. Getting the seventh or eighth seed means there are two opportunities to make it through. Switching things up at PF could be enormously helpful in ensuring they punch their postseason ticket.

*All statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference

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