This One Key Thing Could Be The Difference in the Atlanta Hawks Winning More Games Than Projected

How many games will the Atlanta Hawks win this season?

Oct 29, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) brings the ball up the court against Milwaukee Bucks guard Malik Beasley (5) in the second half at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

After three straight seasons of playing in the NBA's Play-In Tournament and trading away Dejounte Murray, most are writing off the Atlanta Hawks ahead of the 2024-2025. Their win total right now is sitting at just 36.5 and some national analysts are projecting them to be even lower than that.

I have written about how the Hawks could exceed expectations if they can get a big leap from young players such as Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, Onyeka Okongwu, and Dyson Daniels, they could win more games than originally thought.

Johnson is seen as one of the ascending talents in the NBA coming into the 2024-2025 season and it has to do with the growth that he showed last year. Johnson went from a young talent to one of the most important players in the franchise. He saw improvements in every major category last season, from points per game (5.6 to 16), assists per game (1.2 to 3.6), rebounds per game (4.0 to 8.7), three-point shooting percentage (28.8% to 35.5%), and minutes per game (14.9 to 33.7). Johnson was one of the favorites to win the Most Improved Player Award and likely would have taken home the hardware if he was able to meet the 65-game threshold last year.

ESPN's Kevin Pelton recently wrote that for the Hawks to win more games than projected, the difference might be Risacher:

"Playing teenage rookies is usually the fastest way to the lottery, a tension I highlighted in the Hawks' original projection. What if this year's No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher beats his projections? For this scenario, I used Patrick Williams' rookie season as a guide to Risacher being a capable low-usage, 3-and-D player right off the bat. That alone would provide Atlanta with an additional two wins."

Bleacher Report analyst Eric Pincus has the Hawks going under their projected win total, but still being able to make the play-in tournament:

Seeding: No. 10 (Eastern Conference)

Best Case: No. 8 seed

2025 NBA Draft First-Round Pick: Owed to San Antonio Spurs

The Hawks have talent but haven't been able to win consistently in recent years. After pivoting away from Dejounte Murray (traded to the New Orleans Pelicans), can a breakout year from Jalen Johnson provide enough alongside Trae Young to push the team into the playoffs?

Without their own first-round pick, the Hawks will compete throughout the year as rebuilding teams start to shut down veteran players."

Result: Play-in

I think there is a chance that the Hawks can outplay this expectation. While they did lose Dejounte Murray, Murray never was a fit with Trae Young. This roster has more size and more defense on it, two things the Hawks did not have a year ago. The additions of Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, and Larry Nance should only help Atlanta this season and with Murray gone, the offense will fully revolve around Trae Young and he is good enough to lead this team to a top-ten offensive rating all by himself.

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