Trading for Zach LaVine Would Be A Mistake For The Hawks

Although interesting, the Hawks should not pursue a Zach LaVine trade.

Apr 4, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (13) defends against Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (8) during the first half at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

As NBA free agency continues on, one name that has remained in trade talks is Zach LaVine.

It's no secret that the Bulls want to move off their All-Star shooting guard. On June 20, K.C Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago reported that Bulls general manager Arturas Karnišovas reached out to multiple teams about a LaVine trade.

"Sources said Karnišovas has floated as many as 15 proposals centered on the two-time All-Star guard to various teams including the Sacramento Kings, Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers."

More than a week later, ESPN's Bobby Marks reported that the Bulls' efforts have been entirely fruitless.

"There is no market for Zach LaVine. They are trying to give him away and attach a first round pick. I've been told that by multiple, multiple people."

Yesterday, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times made it clear that nothing has changed regarding LaVine's avaliability. Furthermore, the relationship between LaVine and the Bulls' front office has turned bitter.

"The elephant in the room — as has been the case for two years — is what to do with two-time All-Star guard Zach LaVine, who has three years and more than $137  million left on his maximum contract. The Bulls continue shopping LaVine and have presented dozens of trade options in the last few months alone, according to one source. An NBA insider told the Sun-Times on Tuesday that the relationship between LaVine and the team’s top brass is completely shattered and 'filled with mistrust.' "

It could not be clearer that the Bulls are willing to move off of LaVine by practically any means necessary. Given how cheap he is to acquire and the scoring upside he brings, does he make sense for the Hawks?

To be clear, there has not been any reporting that links LaVine and Atlanta directly. However, the Hawks do technically have a vacancy at shooting guard after trading away Dejounte Murray. Financially, Atlanta has the contracts to match LaVine's salary. LaVine is owed $43 million in 2024-25. By sending out Clint Capela ($22 million) and DeAndre Hunter ($21 million), the Hawks would be taking on practically the same amount of money they are sending out. It is also true that the Hawks could likely get draft capital from Chicago. The Bulls clearly want to rebuild - recent reporting indicates they would pay a first-round pick in order to be free of the LaVine contract. I do not think Atlanta could get two first-round picks from the Bulls since they are entering a rebuild. Based on the available information, the framework of a LaVine trade to Atlanta might look like this:

Atlanta gets: Zach LaVine, 2028 1st-round pick (top-five protected)

Chicago gets: Clint Capela, DeAndre Hunter

Even though Atlanta would get an All-Star talent and lightly protected first-round pick, I still do not think Atlanta should do this deal. LaVine's defensive concerns, contract and alignment with the Hawks' trajectory make this a high-risk, low-reward move.

On the court, a healthy LaVine would fit quite well with Trae Young as a high-level offensive tandem. When playing with a high-level playmaker, his explosive athleticism and understanding of space are on full display. He puts plenty of pressure on the rim from cutting to the basket at exactly the right moment. He's a very talented finisher at the rim and I think that would only be magnified when he is on the recieving end of passes from Young. In his last healthy season, he made 48.5% of his field goal attempts at the rim. For some context, that would have ranked somewhere between Luka Doncic and Jamal Murray.

Since LaVine only played in 25 games last year, it's easy to forget how talented of a three-point shooter he is. As a Bull, LaVine is a 38% shooter from beyond the arc on an impressive seven attempts per game. That is over seven seasons of data, so his three-point numbers are not the result of small sample size. He makes those threes from across the court in a variety of different plays and contexts. He is a functional playmaker, but he is not someone that can be trusted to make high-level reads (especially in the clutch). For the Hawks, I do not think this would be much of an issue since Young is going to be the primary playmaker. LaVine's playmaking responsibilities should be kept at a minimum due to the presence of Jalen Johnson on the roster.

A lot of the questions with LaVine come on defense. It is easily one of the most concerning parts of his fit on Atlanta's roster. He's an average on-ball defender: his defensive EPM, which is one way of measuring defensive impact, ranked in the 69th and 68th percentile respectively over the past two seasons. However, he struggles to make an impact as an off-ball defender. He frequently has mental lapses and mistakes that negatively affect the defensive pieces around him. In a backcourt with an already defensively limited guard in Young, I struggle to see how that backcourt will not be targeted by opponents on defense.

Getting a player who projects well on offense, but fits awkwardly on defense seems like a fine move if the cost is low. LaVine's contract is far from a bargain. It is a max contract with cap hits of $43 million, $46 million and a player option for $49 million. The best version of the Hawks is likely one that has Young and Johnson as the first and second options. It is, simply put, expensive to have the third option making as much as the first option.

Once Johnson's max extension kicks in, the Hawks would have three max contracts on their books. For 2025-26, Young makes $46 million, LaVine makes $46 million and Johnson can conservatively be expected to make $31 million. Risacher will make around $12 million, Okongwu makes $14 million and Bogdanovic makes $16 million. When summed, the top six players in the rotation will make around $165-166 million. That gives them about $4-5 million to fill out the roster before hitting the tax. It is possible for Atlanta to operate like this, but it reduces their room for error. The Hawks would also almost certainly become a regular luxury tax team, which ownership has balked at in the past.

Under the new CBA restrictions, the only teams that should be thinking about having three max contracts are those with legitimate championship aspirations. Unless Johnson takes an All-NBA leap and LaVine makes strides on defense, it would be difficult to envision. I also wonder how LaVine's presence would impact Risacher's growth. He would likely be the fourth option on most nights, which is a hard environment for a first-round draft pick to develop in.

While injuries have become somewhat overblown with LaVine, I think there is reason to be concerned. He suffered a Jones fracture last season that required foot surgery to correct. He should be fully healed from that injury, but underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in 2022. He returned to a healthy workload after knee surgery, but it is definitely worth considering that he has already suffered significant knee and foot injuries. However, I don't think the injuries should automatically rule him out as a target for Atlanta.

Furthermore, if the LaVine experiment does not work out, the contract becomes almost impossible to trade. Having 30% of the available cap space taken up by a net-negative player would severely hamper roster flexibility. A LaVine trade would make sense for a team like the Warriors. They have one of the best players of all time in Stephen Curry and clearly lack the pieces to compete in the Western Conference. Even if the LaVine trade does not work, they can rationalize it as an attempt to capitalize on Curry's talent and use the pick in their rebuild post-Curry.

The Hawks are not in that position. They are still trying to figure out what the upside of Jalen Johnson is and how Young will work with this re-configured roster. They also do not have their own picks, so a rebuild likely is not coming for at least the next two years. It's possible that Young grows discontent with his situation and demands a trade next off-season, but I think the Hawks should do everything in their power to ensure Jalen Johnson firmly makes his case as Young's long-term partner. A young co-star is one of the most attractive things a team could offer Young. Bringing in LaVine to take touches away from Johnson might jeopardize that.

In the modern NBA, stars are available for trade during practically every transaction cycle. If LaVine's injury history lengthens, his defensive issues become more glaring or he blocks the development of Risacher/Johnson, his contract will have the Hawks wishing they exercised a bit more patience.