What Should The Expectations Be For Risacher's Rookie Season?

Hawks fans got their first glimpse at the first overall pick in a Hawks jersey during Atlanta's game against Indiana - what can they expect from him in Year 1?

Oct 8, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher (10) handles the ball against the Indiana Pacers during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Opinions on Zaccharie Risacher being the best option with the first overall pick were certainly mixed throughout the summer. Things did not exactly get clearer when he missed most of Summer League with an injury.

Regardless of whether you are bullish or pessimistic about his future as a Hawk, he certainly acquitted himself well in his first pre-season game. Risacher scored 18 points on 7-9 shooting to go along with three rebounds and two assists. He looked comfortable and clearly belonged out there, which is huge for a player in his first NBA action. He received plenty of praise for his performance after the game, including from star point guard Trae Young:

"Yeah, I hate that this was not the first game of the season where it counts for real because that was a hell of a performance and a hell of a start. I wanted him to feel like how he felt tonight like there is no pressure on him, he can go out there and be himself and he played like he did tonight. He shot the ball really well and has a great feel for the game and can make the right reads, obviously, he is going to make some turnovers and make some mistakes, but he is going to have a hell of a career."

Given that Risacher showed he might have some more plug-and-play ability than was previously assumed, what would be the historical precedence for his rookie season?

Looking back at his draft profile from Bleacher Report's Timothy Rapp and Jonathan Wasserman, he drew comparisons to Spurs forward Harrison Barnes and Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. Neither was selected with a top-five pick. Barnes was drafted with the seventh overall pick by the Golden State Warriors in the 2012 NBA Draft and Porter Jr was drafted with the 14th overall pick by the Nuggets in the 2019 NBA Draft. However, both of those drafts had clear top players (Anthony Davis in 2012, DeAndre Ayton/Luka Doncic in 2019). The 2024 draft was much less cut-and-dry.

Barnes finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting after averaging 9.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.2 assists on 43.9%/35.9%/75.8% shooting splits. 2012 is a very different NBA context, but it's still interesting to compare how Barnes fared to what expectations for Risacher should be. His rookie season was basically a tale of two halves - he had an inconsistent regular season and a great postseason for Golden State.

As a rookie, Barnes' strength was as a slasher. This likely will not be true for Risacher, who is primarily defined by his shooting. He's a solid finisher, but that part of his game looked a bit awkward against the Pacers. Still, Barnes was a more developed player than Risacher was. He was a year older, had good post moves and a fairly solid shooting motion. However, he did not get a lot of reliable usage in the regular season. Due to injuries, he stepped into an expanded role in the playoffs. Barnes was incredibly effective for the Warriors in their run to the Western Conference Semifinals. He upped his scoring average to 16.1 points per game and used his athleticism to spark scoring runs for the Warriors. It was not the most consistent season, but the Warriors certainly benefitted from having him in the lineup.

Porter Jr's "rookie" season is a much more interesting comparison. He missed the entirety of his first season in the league with a back injury. Therefore, his first real NBA season was after spending a year on an NBA program and at 21 years old. I would expect Risacher to be a significantly improved player after two years of development, but the reason why this is an interesting comparison is Porter's role on the 2019-20 Nuggets. He only played in 55 games, but he immediately showed effectiveness as an offensive player. Porter scored 9.3 points, grabbed 4.7 rebounds and dished out 0.8 assists on 50.9%/42.2%/83.3%. The number that immediately stands out is the 42.2% mark from three-point range on 2.7 attempts per game. In terms of Risacher's season, this is probably the highest possible mark he could reach as a shooter. I think it is incredibly unlikely that he will be a 40% shooter on three attempts a game from deep as a rookie. However, I do think it's possible that he could be a 35% shooter on three attempts a game in Year 1. He likely will not surpass Porter as a shooter, but I think he has shown a similar, if not better, passing touch at a much younger age.

On defense, Porter was a sieve as a rookie. This is an area of Risacher's game that I am very unsure about in his first season. Young wings are traditionally not great defenders and I do not see Risacher as someone who can buck that trend. It might be possible for him to become a neutral defender by the end of the season, but he is almost definitely going to take his lumps on that end.

Given the production of these two popular comparisons, I would expect Risacher to average around 9 points with 3 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. He is fairly tall at 6'9, but is still slender and growing into his frame. I do think he can be a better passer than both Barnes and Porter Jr. It's a slight difference, but he has shown an ability to make good reads from his limited action in Summer League and preseason. Somewhere in the range of 35% from deep on decent volume (2-3 attempts per game) also seems fairly aligned with historical context.