What Would Happen If The Hawks Did Not Draft Onyeka Okongwu in 2020?

There are two different directions that the Hawks could have gone in - which would have been better?

Mar 21, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu (17) dunks against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

When reflecting on past drafts, it's easy to pinpoint the homeruns and the misses. It's a bit harder to evaluate the in-between outcomes. The 2020 NBA Draft falls into the latter category for the Atlanta Hawks.

With the sixth overall pick, they selected center Onyeka Okongwu out of the University of South California. Immediately after the pick was made, Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report had this to say about the selection:

"Pro Comparison: Derrick Favors"

 "It only took a few games in November to proclaim Onyeka Okongwu the class' No. 1 center. An explosive finisher, he's also developed into a skilled scorer inside 15 feet, equipped with footwork to separate and touch using both hands. He'll work as a target around the basket and featured option, as well as a defensive anchor in the paint, capable of switching and sliding his feet around the perimeter."

Evaluating whether this analysis will come to fruition is difficult. He's into the first year of a 4-year, $62 million dollar contract and has not gotten extended run with the starting group. When he's played starting minutes, he averaged 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks across eight games. The only way the Hawks can determine whether those numbers are indicative of future success is by giving him more minutes.

Now, Okongwu hasn't necessarily been a bust of a pick. There are promising signs of a more expanded game. He finished as a 33% shooter from beyond the arc, but made 80% of his free throws and 60% of his field goal attempts. I think these are all encouraging signs for his development as a shooter. He has not become a defensive anchor, but he's a strong defender with the awareness to bring good off-ball defense and the smarts to play good post defense. Furthermore, he showed growth as a rebounder in 2023-24, finishing in the 70th percentile among bigs for offensive rebounding.

Taking all these factors into consideration, it's fair to say that the Hawks found themselves a capable starting center with room to grow into an above-average starter. However, what if they had gone in a different direction?

If the Hawks had selected someone else with the sixth overall pick, the obvious candidate would have been Tyrese Haliburton. It is worth noting that Haliburton did specifically tell the Hawks not to draft him. He spoke on his conversations with teams during an appearance on the Old Man and the Three Podcast in 2022:

“Every pick that’s coming up, it’s panning to the camera in my room. I told the Hawks and Cavs, ‘Please, God, don’t draft me’ because they already had point guards. They had Trae [Young] and Darius [Garland]. I was like, ‘Don’t draft me.’”

Assuming that he did not tell the Hawks to not draft him, how different would things have been?

In 2021-22, I think Haliburton takes pressure off of Trae Young in the Heat series. While I do not think they ultimately win the series, I'd be surprised if they did not push it to seven games. However, I'd be shocked if he remained on the roster for long. Haliburton always needed more offensive touches and he was not going to get those opportunities in Atlanta.

The discussion becomes especially interesting when considering what the return for Haliburton would have been. Do the Hawks trade for Sabonis? Ultimately, I think they would in an effort to add more size around Young. I do think it would have made the offense better and a Trae-Sabonis duo would have been fun to watch. However, I am not sure if that team would have been enough to return to the Eastern Conference Finals.

It's also interesting to think about what would have happened if they took Devin Vassell. Vassell was mocked as a late-lottery pick, so he would have been viewed as a reach at sixth overall. Assuming he develops into what he is in San Antonio, I'm actually higher on what this would have elicited for Atlanta. Vassell is a massive wing who showed some upside as a self-creator in 2023-24. That is one of the hardest-to-find archetypes in the NBA. Furthermore, a duo of Vassell and Johnson would have been absolutely formidable as the wings for the offense. When combined with Bogdan Bogdanovic's contributions as a shooter, I think the Hawks would be viewed as a possible Eastern Conference Finals team with Vassell on the roster. A lineup of Young - Bogdanovic - Vassell - Johnson - Capela is capable of shooting an opposing team out of a game while having the defensive talent to match up with practically any lineup. Vassell has been a high-volume shooter from deep since his second season, so it's unlikely he would need more time to develop into a good shooter for Atlanta.

An underrated possibility would have been the selection of Deni Avdija with the sixth overall selection. Avdija struggled with turnovers throughout his first two years in Washington, but part of that can be attributed to the lack of structure in Washington at the time. He has grown into an impactful 3&D forward. While Atlanta's rotation would be definitively better with Avdija, I'd stop short of saying that the team would have been significantly different with him on the roster.

While the Hawks could have made worse picks in the 2020 draft, there certainly were more intriguing options avaliable. If Okongwu is able to take the starting job this season, then their patience will have been justified. However, until he does, it's fair to wonder about what could have been.