Why The Atlanta Hawks Shouldn't Be Involved In the Jimmy Butler Sweepstakes

Although the Hawks could certainly use a third star, there are multiple reasons why the Miami Heat star doesn't make sense as that player for Atlanta.

Apr 9, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) shoots past Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (13) in the first quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

All signs point to one conclusion - it's only a matter of time before the Jimmy Butler era comes to an end for the Miami Heat. However, if he does end up getting moved, the Atlanta Hawks are not the right team to acquire him.

Per ESPN's lead NBA insider, Shams Charania, Butler officially requested a trade out of Miami. Butler also does not seem to be particularly choosy about his next destination. Charania reported the following about his request:

"Butler does not plan to furnish the Heat with a list of favored destinations, sources told ESPN. He is open to playing anywhere other than Miami and believes he can make any team a contender -- no matter where he is moved. He does plan to take part in all team activities and do whatever the Heat ask of him during this process, sources said."

The star himself doubled down on the story in a press conference with reporters. He stated the following:

“What do I want to see happen? I want to see me get my joy back from playing basketball, wherever that may be — we’ll find out here pretty soon.”

He then confirmed that Miami was "probably not" a place that he could find that joy. In short, Butler appears determined to be moved in a trade as quickly as possible. There are advantages to the Heat moving him now. They would be able to get back pieces that can help them make a playoff push and they won't lose Butler for nothing. Now, it is worth noting that Butler could opt into his upcoming player option in the summer - which carries a cap hit of $52.4 million. Since very few teams have the cap to sign him outright, this would allow Miami to work with him on a trade. However, Butler is clearly pushing the issue and it seems unlikely the Heat will allow the situation to drag out until the summer.

All this begs the question - should the Hawks make a move to get Jimmy Butler before the trade deadline on February 6th, 2025? I believe the answer is no.

First, it's important to understand who Butler is in 2024-25. In his age-35 season, he's averaging 17.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.7 assists on 55.2/37.5/78.8 shooting splits. From a numbers perspective, those shooting numbers are declining. In 2023-24, he averaged 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists on 49.9/41.4/85.8 splits. Now, there is some nuance to this. Tyler Herro has earned a larger offensive role that cuts into Butler's touches, Bam Adebayo is having a down year offensively and Butler himself is shooting less shots (10.5 attempts per game compared to 13.5 last year). The decreased amount of shots is why his overall FG% is higher. Furthermore, the Heat are also very starved for shot creation outside of Butler and Herro.

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat are a +6.7 with him on the court, which ranks in the 81st percentile. The biggest gains they get from the presence of Butler are in their points per possession numbers (+10.1, 95th percentile), their offensive rebounding (+4.6%, 91st percentile) and their turnover percentage (down 2.2%, 91st percentile). In short, his passing, cutting into space and rebounding make him a very good off-ball player that is conducive towards team offense.

On defense, Butler's a smart defender with versatility. He can take on shooting guards and small forwards with ease while also holding his own against big power forwards. I have little doubt he'd be able to acclimatize himself into whatever defense he ends up being a part of. However, given his age, it's fair to wonder how much longer he can continue to be impactful on that end of the floor.

Despite all of this, I believe there are three reasons why the Hawks should not do a deal that would bring Butler to Atlanta.

Reason 1 - The Hawks do not have the salary cap space to do this responsibly.

This is the biggest reason why Butler won't be traded to Atlanta. Based on current information and historical precedent, the Hawks are not going to enter the luxury tax this year. They have only paid the luxury tax in two seasons - ever - and this would be a pretty strange year to enter it. Therefore, Atlanta must stay below the luxury tax threshold of $170.8 million dollars. The Hawks are currently 3.1 million dollars under the tax. To get Butler without clearing the luxury tax threshold and adding a third team, the deal could be realistically constructed in a few different ways to make the salary work. The Hawks aren't trading either of Trae Young or Jalen Johnson. Clint Capela/Onyeka Okongwu wouldn't fit with Miami's roster due to already having Adebayo and Ke'el Ware. Therefore, here are some other options.

Option 1

Atlanta Hawks get: Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, Josh Richardson

Miami Heat get: DeAndre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Zaccharie Risacher, 2025 1st round pick (top-12 protected from Kings), 2028 1st round pick (top-8 protected)

I think Miami would easily take this package. Hunter has been excellent for Atlanta, averaging a consistent 20 points off the bench with a stellar 45.7% (yes, I'm serious) from deep on 6.1 attempts a night. Bogdanovic is only shooting 33.7% from deep on 6.4 attempts, but has shot north of 36% on 6+ attempts from deep for the last three seasons. Risacher was just picked by the Hawks with the first overall pick and has shown signs of development on offense while being a fairly solid defender for a rookie. This sets up Miami well to compete in both the short-term and long-term. However, this deal would severely compromise Atlanta's bench and depress Atlanta's already-middling numbers from deep (18th in 3P% and 3PA). I highly doubt this is an offer Atlanta would say yes to.

Option 2

Atlanta Hawks get: Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic

Miami Heat get: DeAndre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kobe Bufkin, David Roddy, Garrison Mathews, 2025 1st round pick (top-12 protected from Kings), 2028 1st round pick (top-3 protected)

This deal is a pretty similar construction to the one above, but Risacher stays in Atlanta and the Hawks essentially gut their bench. Now, this deal would allow you to move Risacher and Daniels into a smaller role, but it's highly unlikely those players would be able to replace Hunter and Bogdanovic's contributions off the bench.

Regardless, it's practically impossible to work within Atlanta's cap constraints and land Butler without giving up Hunter and Bogdanovic. Those have both been incredibly important pieces for the Hawks this year. Their three-point shooting is very reliant on those two pieces and when the pick equity cost is considered, it's a lot of risk for a team that's low on depth and starved for shooting. The Hawks are not flush with assets, so they really have to be careful with how they use them.

That's all before mentioning that Jalen Johnson's new contract hits Atlanta's books next summer. His cap hit this season is only $4.5 million, but it jumps to $30 million next season. That takes away a lot of Atlanta's cap space. It'll be extremely tricky to sign Jimmy to a top-of-the line deal and field a roster that can make a deep playoff run.

Reason 2 - Do the Hawks need Butler's skillset at his price?

Jimmy Butler is a star who does a lot of helpful things on a basketball court. However, it's fair to wonder whether he's the right star to give up two vital bench pieces and two first-round picks for before then signing him to a new contract. The Hawks have an elite passer already in Trae Young and are one of the best rebounding teams in basketball (5th in rebounds per game). They really need more shooting, a backup forward, and a backup point guard.

Jimmy would take some defensive attention away from Johnson and Young while his cutting would be a very seamless fit with Young's prodigious playmaking abilities. The problem is that there's a lot of redundant skillsets. Johnson and Butler both primarily operate in the paint/midrange while Young's numbers from deep have been below-average all year (33.5% on eight attempts a night). Johnson is a somewhat respectable shooter from deep (33.1% on 4.2 attempts), but he's not a true stretch forward yet. Butler really isn't much of a shooter from deep in the regular season and while those numbers do improve in the post-season, it's not a big enough difference to warrant the problems it could cause on offense for most of the year. There would have to be a pretty big alteration in roles/playstyle from one or more of these three players to make things work. While this trio is certainly talented on paper, the on-court fit just doesn't seem as clean as the names would suggest.

Reason 3 - Is Butler even going to play enough games to make this worth it?

Butler is hardly an ironman and there's little reason to think things would get better as he continues to age. He's a safe bet to miss around 20 games a year since he hasn't broken the 70-game mark since his days as a Chicago Bull. At best, the Hawks can expect to get between 55-60 games of him a year and that number could drop further as he gets older. If the deal is a rental, then it's less of a concern. However, if Atlanta is serious about signing him to a new deal, then it's something they need to consider. It doesn't even really make sense to acquire Butler as a rental due to the price, so the Hawks front office needs to have a very good plan for keeping all three of their stars healthy if they were to acquire Butler.

The one counter-argument to this is that each star can play less as long as two of three are in every game. However, I'd question that approach given how it's worked for the 76ers this year. They went into the season with that same mindset after getting Paul George on a supermax deal and it's not worked at all. Each of their stars - Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and George - has missed a significant chunk of time. Atlanta would be betting on injury luck in a similar fashion. Granted, neither of Butler, Young or Johnson have the injury history of Embiid/George, but betting heavily on health can always take a drastic turn for the worse.

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