Why the Atlanta Hawks Will Be The Toughest Play-In Matchup For Either the Cavaliers or The Celtics

They aren't the most consistent team and they aren't at full strength, but this version of the Atlanta Hawks profiles as the best team that can emerge from the play-in.

Mar 18, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) handles the ball against Charlotte Hornets guard Damion Baugh (7) during second quarter at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Currently, the Atlanta Hawks are in possession of the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. There doesn't appear to be any realistic way of catching up to the Detroit Pistons for the sixth seed (Detroit is 5.5 games ahead of them). That means they'll have two chances to make it out of the play-in tournament.

Now, the Hawks are far from securing the seventh seed. The Magic are only 1.5 games back while the Bulls have won five of their last seven to pull within 2.5 games of the Magic. Atlanta is in a solid position to secure the seventh seed, but it won't be a cakewalk. They have matchups with the Sixers, Heat, Blazers, Mavericks, Jazz and Nets in their next 13 games. That's six teams that are certainly beatable for the Hawks while they also have two games left against the Magic. However, it's going to be hard for Atlanta to handle Golden State, Houston, Milwaukee and New York. Even so, they aren't going to be at a horrible disadvantage in any of those matchups.

For some perspective, the Magic have two games against the Wizards and matchups with the Hornets, Spurs and Mavericks. Orlando should be able to handle those games, but they also take on the Lakers, Clippers, Celtics and Pacers. Of course, they also play the Hawks twice. In short, both the Magic and the Hawks have reasonably similar schedules down the stretch and can't afford any extended losing streaks. There is a decent chance that the seventh seed will be decided by those two games between the Magic and Hawks on April 8th and April 13th.

Even though their schedule is reasonably difficult, there should still be confidence in the Hawks to finish as either the seventh or eighth seed. They finished as the 10th seed last season, but that roster was much more shallow. Jalen Johnson got knocked out with an ankle injury and Atlanta struggled all season to find a balance between Young and Dejounte Murray. Their second unit was also one of the worst in basketball.

In the play-in game against the Chicago Bulls, Young came back from a torn ligament in his left pinkie finger and didn't look right throughout the game, finishing 4-12 from the field. However, he still racked up 22 points and 10 assists. Deandre Hunter had a rough game and the bench finished with a combined 13 points. Dejounte Murray had a solid 30-point game with six assists and seven rebounds, but it was clear that the fit just didn't work between him and Trae. The Hawks' putrid defense allowed the Bulls to shoot 42.3% from deep as Coby White buried the Hawks with a 42-point performance.

To be clear, I am not saying the Hawks are primed for a deep playoff run. The perimeter defense still has obvious flaws and the loss of Jalen Johnson to a shoulder injury severely caps the ceiling of this team. However, there's three main reasons to believe this team is the most formidable opponent to come out of the play-in bracket.

Trae Young Is The Best Player In the Play-In

Mar 18, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) brings the ball up court against the Charlotte Hornets during second quarter at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Rather than a severely comprised version of Young, the Hawks should have a much healthier version of their star point guard. He is dealing with nagging Achilles tendinitis, but that's a much smaller issue than the finger injury he suffered last season.

This season, Young is averaging 24.1 points and a career-high 11.4 assists. His defensive rating has improved from 121.5 to 119.1 and he is still one of the best pick-and-roll ball handlers in basketball. He leads the NBA with 11.4 points per game as the P&R ball handler. It should be noted that his efficiency hasn't been quite as good as in years past. He's shooting 40.6% from the field and 32.8% from deep on the season. However, he's been excellent at drawing fouls and converting at the charity stripe, shooting an elite 91.9% at the line in his last 16 games. Over that same stretch, he's upped his scoring to 26.5 points per game. After accumulating a +/- of -0.5 in his first 48 games, he has a plus-minus of 4.4 in his last 16 games. The numbers are slightly trending up for Young, which is a welcome change from where he was during this same point in 2023-24. However, Young's effect can be boiled down to one simple fact - the Hawks' offense is 8.4 points better with him on the court rather than off it.

His combination of scoring and playmaking is unique in comparison to the best players on the Bulls, Magic or Heat. Coby White and Tyler Herro have been more efficient scorers this season, but neither are even close to Young as a passer. While Paolo Banchero has upped his scoring averages, his efficiency is also down and he hasn't done enough as a defender to make up for it. His teammate Franz Wagner has been better on both ends, but it remains to be seen how effective he is in a playoff-style environment. Wagner had a very disappointing outing in the first round of the 2024 playoffs. The play-in and postseason style lends themselves towards players who can effectively facilitate and create their own shot. Young has done it as recently as the first round of the 2023 playoffs against the Boston Celtics.

The Second Unit is Better Than Last Season

Mar 3, 2025; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Caris LeVert (3) reacts with guard Garrison Mathews (24) during the second quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Heading into the play-in tournament, the Hawks had a bench of Bruno Fernando, Mo Gueye, Wesley Matthews and Garrison Mathews. That pales in comparison to their current bench of Mo Gueye/Georges Niang, Terence Mann, Caris LeVert, Garrison Mathews, Dominick Barlow and Vit Krejci.

LeVert has been excellent as a scorer off the bench for the Hawks. Specifically, he has been excellent cutting off of Young and scoring an NBA-best 1.89 points per possession on those cuts. Although it's a small sample size of only 14 games, having both Niang and LeVert is a definitive tier above what they had last year on the bench. They are a massive reason why Atlanta's bench is 4th in points per game this season - the Bulls, Magic and Heat are 13th, 14th and 15th respectively in the same stat. He's also a passable defender who can hold his own against most guards and wings.

Niang is currently the best high-volume shooter on the Hawks, making 38.7% of his threes while taking 6.6 of them per game. His presence is also valuable for Young - in the 276 minutes that he and Young have played together, Trae averages 31.2 points and 11.2 assists on 60.8% TS per Databallr. That's noticeably above Young's averages on the season. He's defensively limited, but communicates well on that end.

Mann isn't the most consistent scorer, but he is very active on both ends of the court and also pairs well with Young. Per Databallr, his three-point shooting percentage rises from 27.8% to a staggering 47.1% in the 251 minutes he's played with Trae. Players who can take advantage of Young's gravity are so critical towards a strong rotation and it seems like Atlanta has begun to identify players that fit well with that.

Depth is becoming more important in the NBA than ever before and the Hawks profile as a deeper team than their play-in opponents.

Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu and Zaccharie Risacher > Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela

Dec 14, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots against Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher (10) and guard Dyson Daniels (5) during the first quarter in a semifinal of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images / Candice Ward-Imagn Images

While the decision to move on from Dejounte Murray and bench Clint Capela hasn't drastically changed the Hawks' record, it increases their ceiling in both the present and future. Those moves make Atlanta a tougher out once postseason contention begins because these players fit better around Trae Young. The numbers back that up - the four-man lineup of Young, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher and Onyeka Okongwu has an excellent offensive rating of 120.1 across 338 minutes. For some reference, the Thunder's lineup of SGA, Casen Wallace, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein has an offensive rating of 117.6 on a smaller sample size.

Daniels may not win the DPOY award, but he's certainly playing like someone who deserves it. Just this week, he earned his 194th steal, which is the most that a single player has gotten in 15 years. He's accrued a defensive box plus-minus of 2.6, which is more than fellow DPOY contenders Jaren Jackson Jr (1.0) and Evan Mobley (1.4) combined. He averages 3.03 steals per game, which hasn't been done in the 21st century. Daniels also plays with significantly less defensive infrastructure around him than either JJJ or Mobley. In short, he is one of the best defenders in basketball and the Hawks did not have a player of his caliber in their starting lineup last season. Furthermore, per Databallr, he's averaging 14.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in his last 16 games on 57.3 TS% and shooting 46.9% from deep over that same span.

Risacher also experienced some growth during the second half of the season. After starting the year shooting below 30% from deep, he's gotten up to 35% from deep on 4.4 attempts per game. He is also another player who feasts off of Young's gravity - his TS% rises to 56.7% in the minutes he shares with Trae up from 49.1%. Unconventionally, he also shoots 44.1% on corner threes. For a 19 year-old wing, those are encouraging signs that he can become a respectable shooter on higher volume. His defensive instincts are there and he's turned into a respected POA defender, but the overall impact on that end remains inconsistent. Perhaps most interestingly, he seems to get better in bigger matchups. He was excellent in Atlanta's wins over the Cavaliers and Knicks, dropping 33 points in the win over New York and 17 against Cleveland on good efficiency.

Okongwu grabbed Hawks' fans attention with a statement game against the Suns, grabbing 21 boards and scoring 22 points off the bench. From there, he earned his place in Atlanta's starting lineup and has not looked back. He's an above-average passer for a center that has some touch and solid defensive instincts. He hasn't quite been the excellent shot-blocker he was earlier in his career, but the overall ability to hold his own in the post has been noticeable. Importantly, his numbers are also relatively similar with or without Young. That indicates he isn't solely dependent on Young for offensive utility. He's also quick enough to play out on the perimeter and guard floor-spacing centers like Myles Turner. The elite centers are going to give him trouble, but Okongwu gives the Hawks a steady floor in both of the Miami and Chicago matchups. Orlando's massive lineup has given him issues at times this season, but Okongwu's still a more versatile option for Atlanta than Capela.

In short, swapping out a backcourt option that didn't fit with their best player and a physically diminished center for two promising young wings and a solid, young center have made clear impacts on the overall cohesiveness of Atlanta's lineup. It is up to the Hawks to translate that into a playoff berth and competitive first-round series by ending the season strong and handling business in the play-in.

Additional Links

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