Will the Hawks Decide To Keep Capela and Okongwu Together For One More Season?

Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu are both good players, but rolling out the same center rotation feels like a waste of their respective talents.

Apr 10, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Clint Capela (15) drives past Charlotte Hornets forward Grant Williams (2) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest stories of the Atlanta Hawks' off-season has been the future of center Clint Capela. Considering that the Hawks already have a promising young center on the roster in Onyeka Okongwu, retaining Capela on his $22.2 million dollar salary seems like a luxury.

It is known that Capela is avaliable. NBA insider Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports mentioned after the draft that Atlanta is exploring trades involving Capela.

"Hawks are certainly expected to now gauge trade possibilities for Murray, All-Star guard Trae Young, Clint Capela and the rest of their rostered players who aren’t named Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher, sources said."

However, the Athletic's John Hollinger believes Capela has not been moved because of a lack of interest in his services. The Hawks have reportedly been making calls, but teams just do not see him as a valuable piece.

"Of course, I say all this as if the Hawks are done dealing. Are they? Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter rumors have subsisted for ages, but the general consensus from league sources is that the Hawks can’t get any meaningful return for them."

If the Hawks are not able to get a good return for Capela, would they just keep him on the roster with Okongwu? Things are trending towards that being the likely option, especially with the latest report that the Hawks chose not to surrender Capela in a move for Brandon Ingram. William Guilory of the Athletic, who covers the Pelicans, revealed as much in his latest report:

"As it turned out, Atlanta didn’t have much interest in giving Ingram his next contract or moving either of its top two centers (Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu), according to league sources."

With Capela talks apparently at a standstill, the Hawks need to figure out whether Capela can co-exist on the roster with Okongwu in 2024-25. To me, the answer to that question is simple. Capela is still a good player, but preserving the status quo at center is a poor decision. If they cannot move Capela for what they feel is fair value, the Hawks need to make a bold decision by elevating Okongwu into the starting role.

The Hawks' defense was frustrating again in 2023-24, finishing with the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. Even though he is the defensive anchor of the team, I think it is reductive to put all of that on Capela. From a stats perspective, he recorded a 26.5% defensive rebounding percentage and was 19th in contested defensive rebounding percentage. That percentage ranked 13th in the NBA and he was still a top-10 center by block percentage (5.1%). He also recorded a solid 58% defensive field-goal percentage at the rim, meaning that he forced opponents to shoot below league-average numbers. Simply put, he is still a solid rebounder and shot blocker on the defensive end.

Even with that, I think that Okongwu should be the starter in 2024 for a few key reasons. One of those is simple - the Hawks need to understand what they have in Okongwu. He's into the first year of a 4-year, $62 million dollar contract and has not gotten extended run with the starting group. When he played starting minutes, he averaged 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks across a small sample size of eight games. The only way the Hawks can determine whether those numbers are indicative of future success is by giving him more minutes.

On offense, Okongwu has room for growth that Capela simply lacks at this stage in his career. As an offensive threat, Capela doesn't offer much outside of offensive rebounding and rim-running. He is an elite offensive rebounder, leading the league in offensive rebounds with 4.6 per game. The problem is that his finishing around the rim has declined in recent years. He also is not a three-point shooter, meaning that his maximum offensive utility is as a pick-and-roll partner with Trae Young.

Okongwu has shown signs of having a more expanded game. He finished as a 33% shooter from beyond the arc, but made 80% of his free throws and 60% of his field goal attempts. I think these are all encouraging signs for his development as a shooter. Defenses need to pay some attention to him from beyond the arc in a way that they do not with Capela. Furthermore, he pairs well with Jalen Johnson as a passer and makes good decisions. His turnover percentage of 8.4% is in the 37th-percentile league-wide.

Defensively, Okongwu is less of a known quantity than Capela. The rebounding and blocks are all obvious strengths of Capela's. Okongwu is a strong defender with the awareness to bring good off-ball defense and the smarts to play good post defense. Even though he had a down season defensively in 2023-24, it's unlikely the defensive upside he showed his previous two seasons disappeared. I would indicate that more to team context rather than a sharp decline in his own individual skill. Furthermore, he showed growth as a rebounder in 2023-24, finishing in the 70th percentile among bigs for offensive rebounding.

Playing Okongwu with Capela isn't a viable solution either. While the Hawks had a positive +5.3 net rating with both on the court, it would block the emergence of Zaccharie Risacher and lineups with both only recorded 132 minutes on the court. Since Jalen Johnson is the clear second option on the court, it makes the most sense to play players that are a clear fit with him. The five-man lineup of Bogdanovic - Young - Okongwu - Bey - Johnson recorded a +13.7 net rating last year, which provides some credence to the idea that Okongwu is a better fit alongside Young and Johnson. Conversely, practically all the lineups that Johnson and Capela were in recorded a negative net rating.

Even though the optics of having a backup center making $20+ million dollars is a tough sell, Okongwu's potential and fit alongside the team's stars make a compelling case for him to be the starter. The major concern with making him the starter is his propensity for fouls, but his fouling numbers (per 48 minutes) have declined each season of his career.

Putting Capela in a backup role would also decrease Capela's chances of getting injured, preserving him for a possible move at the trade deadline. If the Hawks are forced into an imperfect option, they need to make a decision that maximizes their roster talent by taking the bet on Okongwu's upside and starting him.