Updated NBA Futures Odds Make Miami Heat An Afterthought

Futures odds updated following Karl-Anthony Towns' acquisition by the New York Knicks list the Miami Heat as 13th among likely champions. The Orlando Magic are deemed more likely to finish with more wins and repeat as Southeast Division champs.

Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) lines up a shot against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second quarter of a play-in game of the 2024 NBA playoffs. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Chaos in the NBA started even before Media Day for this season, as the New York Knicks successfully completed their years-long pursuit of Karl-Anthony Towns. 

In a deal that became official on Wednesday, the Timberwolves moved the four-time All-Star for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop and a 2025 first-round pick. Other pieces were shipped to Charlotte for salary cap purposes, but New York adding Towns and prying Mikal Bridges from Brooklyn this offseason has impressed oddsmakers. 

One of the Heat’s primary rivals, a Knicks franchise they’ve gotten over on for decades, has assumed a position of strength. 

According to DraftKings, Boston is favored to repeat (+310), Oklahoma City (+700) is the West’s best bet, and New York (+800) has been elevated to third in the pecking order as most likely champion. 

A dozen teams are listed ahead of Miami (+4500). 

Coach Erik Spoelstra isn’t going to use gambling odds to fuel a veteran roster that has consistently defied expectations in the postseason over the years, but these projections are a barometer of how his team is perceived entering. 

The Heat come off finishing eighth in the East for the second straight year, failing to even earn the No. 7 seed after losing to the 76ers in their play-in opener. Miami had an even worse regular-season record (44-38) when it reached the Finals, but setting up a daunting road for itself given how loaded the conference looks isn’t a path worth replicating. 

If you’re wondering whether having reached an NBA Finals in 2023 buys it any credibility, that answer is actually yes. The Heat are tied for 16th with Golden State in projected win total (44.5), ranking behind even Orlando (47.5), which is favored to win the Southeast (-155). As far as title odds and the playoffs are concerned, Miami is viewed as more likely to advance further behind battle tested former All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

The Heat are +180 to win a division it had won in consecutive years before finishing one game behind the Magic last season. They’ve won the Southeast nine times in 14 seasons since 2010-11.

Orlando comes into the Keseya Center on Oct. 23, and Miami should be well aware a young roster now fortified by the addition of NBA champ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is expected to continue its run as the new juggernaut in the Southeast. As training camp unfolds, Spoelstra has the Heat working to defy the odds and the belief that his team is yesterday’s news, expected to play second fiddle within their state.

Starting 1-4 and 11-9 through 20 games again would be ugly if for no other reason than the Hornets, Pistons and Wizards, all projected to be among the East's worst teams, are among the Heat’s first five foes. They're peppered in among games against the Magic and Knicks, who visit South Florida on Oct. 30. The schedule is set up nicely for Miami to remind anyone putting it in the afterthought column that it has plenty left in the tank.

Tony Mejia is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI. He can be reached at tnyce1414@gmail.com

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