Analyzing Reed Sheppard's Fit With the Charlotte Hornets

Matt Alquiza | Jun 17, 2024

They say beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Those that behold Reed Sheppard in a positive light see a potential lead guard with a limitless ceiling. Those that behold Sheppard in a negative light see an undersized guard in a big man’s league that will struggle to find a long-term role. 

What matters here is how the Hornets behold him, and I believe he’d look pretty good in purple and teal. Let’s take a look. 

Background

Sheppard was a four-star recruit coming out of high school, the 79th ranked player in the country by 24/7 Sports. He followed in his parents footsteps in playing basketball the University of Kentucky. His dad, Jeff, won two national championships as a Wildcat and was named the MVP of the 1998 Final Four. Reed stepped on campus with the weight of his father’s legacy on his shoulders, and the younger Sheppard delivered. 

Predominantly playing as a sixth man for the Wildcats, Sheppard averaged 12.5 points, 4.5 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.5 steals per game as a freshman. He's was voted as the National Freshman of the Year by the National Association of Basketball Coaches, and SEC Freshman of the Year by SEC head coaches.

He has the pedigree. He has the accolades. And he's on track to be an NBA lottery pick. Here's why.

Offensive Strengths

Reed's super power is his shooting ability. Let's start with some statistics that bear it out.

Sheppard shot 52.1% from long range at Kentucky. That led the country, and the next highest power five conference player was four percentage points behind Sheppard. His right hand is an absolute flamethrower, and he can give it to you however you want it.

He hit 56.4% of his catch and shoot threes, and poured them in at a 57.4% rate when he was ungarded. An ungodly number. His mechanics are about as smooth as it gets for such a young player. Our very own James Plowright did a deep dive into his shooting statistics, and they all point to a prospect with elite shooting touch.

via James Plowright

If new head coach Charles Lee runs an offense like his current boss, Joe Mazzulla, Sheppard would have a sure-fire role in Charlotte. Every meaningful contributor on the Celtics is at worst an average jump shooter, and their five out offensive looks have given every team in the league fits all season. Reed Sheppard is the best shooter in the draft, and would be a great offensive piece in Charlotte.

The other main pillar of the Boston Celtics offense that Charles Lee could bring to Charlotte is connectivity among all five players on the court. When Boston is at it's best, the ball never stops moving. An ideal Celtics' possession involves a drive and kick to tilt the defense that ends with multiple swing passes to an open shooter. Boston kills undisciplined help defense with their quick passing. Sheppard would be a real asset to an offense that runs like that.

He has a top of the class basketball IQ. It's easy to tell that he's the son of two elite college basketball players. Sheppard averaged 4.5 assists per game at Kentucky and he did it in a number of ways. He showed the ability to be a pick and roll initiator, setting up teammates as a primary creator. He also showed flashes of secondary playmaking ability, using his gravity as a jump shooter to attack close outs and hit open teammates when the defense was out of position.

His fit as a secondary ball-handler sharing the floor with LaMelo Ball is tantalizing. They are both smart basketball player that thrive in transition. A Reed Sheppard and LaMelo Ball back court be free-flowing, and each of their strengths both overlap and compliment the other well. Rim pressure would lack, but Brandon Miller's individual creation ability and high-flying athleticism would fix that problem easily.

Offensive Weaknesses

He'll be able to create offense for others, but how will he create it for himself?

Sheppard isn't the biggest guard in the class (6'3"), and he definitely isn't the quickest. He was able to dominate college second units, but how will he fare off the dribble against NBA defenders? Questions loom about his ability as a primary ball handler when it comes to getting shots for himself.

His game, as it currently stands, is mostly perimeter oriented. His wingspan measured exactly the same as his height, and his lack of explosion will limit his ability to touch the paint with the ball in his hands. Sheppard will undoubetly struggle at the rim early on, and his finishing ability will be somewhat of a swing skill that defines his ceiling.

Smaller guards (Steph Curry and Steve Nash come to mind) had similar question marks early in their careers. Those two, and countless others, developed great touch around the rim, the ability to finish off both feet, and overall craft that mitigated their lack of size. Now, I'm not saying Sheppard will develop into a Nash or a Curry, but relentlessly working on that touch and craft around the rim will raise his ceiling immensely.

As it stands, Sheppard isn't a complete offensive prospect by any means, but his pros outweigh his cons in my opinion, and his current skillset is worth gambling on.

Defensive Strengths

His size will always be a mitigating factor for his defensive ability, but Sheppard is usually up for the fight. Undersized defenders get targeted possession after possession, but Sheppard's dogged mindset and quick hands raise his defensive potential.

The Kentucky freshman averaged a ridiculous 2.5 steals per game as a freshman. What he lacks in size, he makes up for in basketball IQ and magnetic hands. Luka Doncic has different limitations thatn Sheppard. Doncic struggles with speed and agility, Sheppard struggles with size, but both disrupt opposing ball handlers the same way. Knocking away live dribbles and passes, and intercepting passes they saw coming with their third eye.

Sheppard will undoubtedly be attacked by opposing offenses early on in his career, but his understanding of space on defense, his competitive fire, and his good hands give teams something to gamble on.

Boston's Derrick White has a pterodactyl-like wingspan, but he wins defensively with smarts, toughness, and strong hands. Sheppard would do well to study White's defensive game and try to mirror the Celtics' veteran as he grows in the league.

Defensive Weaknesses

It all comes down to size.

NBA teams have no shame when it comes to running actions that force switches to put smaller defenders in a bind. Sheppard, with is idental 6'3" height and wingspan, will be a target for opponents. His competitive fire and quick hands are great tools, but teams like Boston and Dallas have superstars that hunt mismatches. Sheppard will be one.

The main question for Sheppard and his potential role in the NBA, is "will his offensive marksmanship make up for his defensive questions marks?" If he's a 40%+ three point shooter, solid connnective piece, and a primary or secondary ball handler, teams will live with him being a slight negative on defense. It all comes out in the wash, and a potential elite shooter with defensive shortcomings is worth a gamble in a talent-poor draft like this one.

Projected Fit With the Hornets

The Hornets really struggled offensively when LaMelo Ball wasn't on the floor last season. Unfortunately, that was the case most of the time. If that continues to be the case going forward, Ball may be wearing a new jersey sooner rather than later. Sheppard can help quell those issues.

I am of the belief that Ball and Sheppard can both co-exist, and play off of each other. In minutes where they share the floor, the Hornets offense would be humming. Both players are elite shooters. They could spot up while the other one initates the offense. Both players are smart proccessors and great passers. In those spot up scenarios, they could keep the ball flowing (a la Boston in the Finals) while the other creates. It would be a symphony on offense that Charlotte hasn't seen in some time.

When one guard sits, the other one could take primary playmaking duties and keep the offense afloat. Charlotte has fumbled around with different backup point guards for LaMelo Ball his entire career. Sheppard can secure that role while also playing alongside Ball.

The questions come on defense. Ball and Sheppard are similar defenders in that they win with anticipation, quick hands, and timing. Neither are elite on ball stoppers. Charlotte would need to be comfortable with sacrificing defense for offense when pairing Ball and Sheppard, and Mark Williams better be prepared to handle paint duties more often that most centers.

In all, Sheppard is a good prospect with a high ceiling and floor. If Charles Lee is looking to supercharge the Hornets offense and figure out defense later, Sheppard is absolutely in the conversation for the sixth overall pick. If Lee is looking to lock down the defensive side of the floor, Charlotte will likely be looking elsewhere (Clingan, Castle, Holland) on draft night.