Updated tank odds: Where do the Hornets stand in the race for Cooper Flagg?

The Hornets' chances took a hit last night.

Mar 31, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Grant Williams (2) cheers on his teammates from the bench during the second half against the Utah Jazz at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Charlotte Hornets are nearing the end of the 2024-25 season, and while it has been an utter disaster on most fronts, they do still stand a chance at winning the lottery and being able to change their franchise with Cooper Flagg. Their ability to do so took a hit last night, though.

The Hornets matched up with the Utah Jazz, the team that now owns the worst overall record in the NBA by half a game. The Hornets defeated the Jazz, thereby helping Utah's quest for the number one overall pick and hampering their own.

However, the night before that, the Hornets successfully tanked against the New Orleans Pelicans (by sitting Miles Bridges down the stretch and keeping Mark Williams out of the lineup). That is the team sitting in fourth, so it's imperative that the Hornets keep them at arm's length.

The top three worst teams all get a 14% chance at winning the lottery. That means that if the season ended now, the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets would all have a 14% at Cooper Flagg. They would also each have the same chance at the second overall pick (13.4%) and the third overall pick (12.7%).

Falling to fourth would mean the Hornets' chances at the top pick drop to 12.5%. Additionally, and this is why last night's win hurts so much, the lower you are, the lower you can pick. Yes, the Hornets have the same chance as Washington and Utah at the top pick, but they can fall as far as seventh (7% chance).

Moving into second would mean they pick no lower than sixth, which is still not ideal but better. With the worst record, they'd be no worse than fifth. Taking a look at the upcoming games, even with last night's win, the Hornets are going to be hard-pressed to move out of the top three without LaMelo Ball.

Mar 31, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams (5) gets a dunk over Utah Jazz center Oscar Tshiebwe (34) during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Charlotte has roughly one winnable game on the remaining schedule. That's an April 9 trip to Toronto to take on the Raptors, who are four games out from having a top-three worst record. Even that is a stretch since they have the talent advantage over Charlotte.

The Hornets could possibly win on April 6 when they host the Chicago Bulls, but the Bulls are playing some great ball over the last few weeks, so it would be a surprise. The rest of the opponents are the Sacramento Kings, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies, and the Boston Celtics twice.

All of those teams are currently in the play-in game. Whether or not this translates to a top pick or a not-as-bad worst landing spot in the lottery remains to be seen, but it does seem very likely that they retain a top-three worst record.

With seven games left, it's hard to see them outplaying the Raptors by four games. The Pelicans have a pretty difficult schedule ahead, too, but they also get to play the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat, so it's difficult to envision the Hornets being overtaken, but that is a team to be monitored down the stretch.

The Wizards are the Wizards and have the Bulls and Heat remaining as two theoretically winnable games on the schedule, so don't expect Charlotte to make up the three-game gap there. The Jazz could beat the Trail Blazers on their remaining schedule, so again, don't expect Charlotte to make that gap up in the remaining days.

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