Navigating Miles Bridges' Free Agency Conundrum

Should the Hornets re-sign, let walk or try and sign and trade Miles Bridges?

Should the Hornets re-sign Miles Bridges? That's the question on every Hornets fans' mind.

With the NBA finals now over, the Hornets are now "officially" allowed to start negotiations with unrestricted free agent Miles Bridges, thanks to a new CBA rule. The decision whether to re-sign Bridges is the inflection point of Charlotte's entire off-season. It impacts their draft night strategy, as well as dictating their free agency spending power.

This decision has been hanging over Charlotte not only this off-season, but for three years. How did we get here?

In October 2021 Bridges turned down a 4-year $60 million extension offer, betting on himself. That looked to have worked as in the 2022 off-season he was expected to command double that salary, although less than the full, 5-year, $173 million max according to Brian Windhorst. However, everything changed just hours before Free Agency as Bridges was charged for domestic assault and missed the entire 2022-23 season. The saga resumed in July 2023 when the Hornets refused to pay Bridges the "north of $25 million per year" figure he was looking for. Bridges signed his 1-year $7.9 million qualifying offer and is now set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

There is no kicking the can down the road anymore, it's time for the Hornets to make a final decision. Bridges has gone out of his way to tell the media he wants to stay in Charlotte, but the decision isn't his alone. The franchise is under new management, and they are now officially on the clock for deciding if they want to commit.

🎙️ Miles Bridges: "I love the city of Charlotte, wouldn't want to be anywhere else. Grew up here, been here since I was 20. I've been through a lot here... it's like a family to me, it's home to me."

"I want to be like Steph, Kobe, Dirk... staying and winning with a team." pic.twitter.com/6xKBBD1fBa

— /r/CharlotteHornets (@HornetsReddit) April 16, 2024

Option 1 - Re-Sign Miles Bridges

Bridges is unlikely to return to Charlotte for less than the $25 million per he wanted last summer, if anything the price has gone up. After missing the first 10 games through suspension, Bridges proved to be a reliable contributor averaging career highs in minutes (37), points (21) and rebounds (7.3).

Delve deeper and there are concerns around a potential decline in athleticism, some questionable shot selection and his defense. However, some of those issues can be attributed to a year off from basketball and a poor team context, at least that's what he and his agent will claim.

Nobody around the league thinks Miles Bridges is a max ($35.2 million) player, or at least I hope not. That would suggest his eventual salary would be projected to be somewhere between $26-32 million per year. Some other notable players who have signed contracts within the past 12 months with that range are listed below.

Player	Annual Average Salary
Jermai Grant	$32 Million
Tyler Herro	$30 Million
Kristaps Porzingis	$30 Million
Andrew Wiggins	$27.2 Million
Devin Vassell	$27 Million
Dejounte Murray	$28.5 Million
R.J. Barrett	$26.7 Million

Most of that group are good starters or low level all-stars, which I think fits Miles Bridges' description quite well. I would expect his salary to end up towards the top end of that group, and here is why.

In 2025 the money from the NBA's new $76 billion TV deal will enter the league. Unlike in 2016, when a sudden spike in TV money led Charlotte to spend $175 million on Nic Batum and Marvin Williams, the new CBA restricts the salary cap from increasing by more than 10% annually. However, that doesn't stop the rise altogether, by 2028, the cap is expected to have increased by around 30%. In that scenario, a $30 million per year contract in 2028 will represent the same percentage (17.5%) of the cap as a $25 million contract does in 2024.

I say all this to highlight one key point: free agents are going to get PAID this summer.

While Bridges signing a multi-year $30 million per year contract might raise some eyebrows at first, years down the line it will be both less cumbersome financially and easier to trade as more free agents in 2025 and 2026 sign deals in line with the increasing salary cap. Instead of there being 50 players in the NBA earning over $30 million, there will likely be 70+.

Charlotte should consider structuring any Bridges' contract as a declining deal, similar to what the Wizards did with Kyle Kuzma. Given the Hornets' limited cap space expectations this summer and likely in 2025, there’s little benefit in reserving space short-term. It would be prudent to keep flexibility for potential extensions for Mark Williams in 2026 and Brandon Miller in 2027. Declining contracts also hold greater trade value, particularly with teams navigating the complex second apron. Alternatively, the Hornets could opt for a shorter 2-3 year deal for Bridges as a middle ground.

Option 2 - Let Miles Bridges Walk

If Bridges were to sign elsewhere (Hello Detroit), the Hornets would free up between $28-34 million in cap space. This would be a puzzling move considering that the Hornets stood by Bridges throughout his legal troubles, and picked up a good deal of flack for it. Despite the external negative noise surrounding Bridges, internally, it's quite the opposite. His teammates view him as a leader, respect him, and believe he has "a good voice" in the locker room.

Nevertheless, it's entirely plausible Bridges leaves as anything can happen in unrestricted Free Agency. Unless you really like Tobias Harris, Gary Trent Jr. or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and are happy to overpay, then there aren't many attainable players worth of more than the mid-level exception to replace him.

More likely, the cap space would be used to absorb larger contracts in return for draft capital from teams trying to dodge the second apron. Andrew Wiggins (GSW), Pat Connaughton (MIL) and Nassir Little (PHX) are all candidates to be moved this summer. This would follow the Hornets pattern from the trade deadline where they traded for future guaranteed contracts in return for draft capital.

Grant Williams was asked by @richierandall who else was a vocal leader on this team outside of him.

He listed Miles Bridges, Mark Williams and Micic.

Grant believes Bridges is a “Leader on this team” and “He has a good voice and guys respect him”.

Full answer ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/jTH38tceFA

— James Plowright (@British_Buzz) April 2, 2024

Alternatively, Charlotte could give a free agent the "Bruce Brown" treatment. Last off-season Brown received a 2-year $45 million contract with a team option on the second year, this above market value deal acted as a human trade exception. Indiana put it to good use, eventuallly including Brown in the trade for Siakam.

Outside of landing Caldwell-Pope, none of the above paths will likely improve the Hornets for the 2024-25 season. Even then, Pope is 31 years old, doesn’t match the timeline and has been in the best possible context in Denver, a big contract in Charlotte could turn ugly quickly.

However, they would have more flexibility in the long-term and understandably feel relieved to finally move on past Bridges historical legal issues. It all comes down to how patient and thick skinned Charlotte's new ownership group and front office are willing to be.

Option 3 - Pros and Cons of Signing and Trading Miles Bridges

This is the biggest mystery and hardest to project. If a team without cap space wanted to sign Bridges, the Hornets could choose to sign and trade (S&T) him there. But who? And for what?

I contacted several beat writers covering teams where Miles Bridges could potentially fit. Without exception, they dismissed the notion that any team would consider adding Bridges due to his non-contest plea for a felony domestic violence charge. While NBA team personnel might find a way to overlook this, I anticipate that in certain destinations, this issue would be a deal breaker. If a team did S&T Bridges, they would become hard capped limiting their flexibility for the rest of the league year. Those teams in the second apron can't even execute a sign and trade due to the new CBA, further shrinking Bridges market.

Utah and Bridges' hometown Detroit Pistons are the only rumored teams to have interest, but both have the cap space to sign Bridges outright meaning a S&T is unlikely. Since that report, Detroit now have a new lead decision maker in Trajan Langdon, could their interest in Bridges cool now?

If both Utah and Detroit used their cap space elsewhere but still wanted to target Bridges, a S&T is still possible. In that scenario, both teams have movable pieces such as Collin Sexton and Isaiah Stewart as well as future draft capital. However, Hornets would only be able to take back a salary in the region of $22 million even if Bridges signed for $30 million pa due to S&T baseline compensation rules. If you're confused, Buzz Beat's Richie Randle explained the complexities of baseline compensation in his 2024 off-season guide.

"The Hornets, Detroit Pistons, and Utah Jazz are among the notable teams expected to have interest in Miles Bridges during free agency, league sources told @hoopshype."

🙄 #LetsFly35 (@MikeAScotto 📰 https://t.co/szYR0xuU1P) pic.twitter.com/YmzIhCN98k

— /r/CharlotteHornets (@HornetsReddit) May 13, 2024

On the surface, the S&T option appears to be the best of both worlds. The Hornets don't end up paying a non-all star $26+ million but also don't lose the asset for nothing. However, finding a trade partner who has both the motivation and means to execute a deal could prove difficult.

Most Likely Outcomes

Most Likely - Bridges re-signs with Charlotte on a declining three year deal in the region of 3-years $85-90 million with some built in incentives linked to games played. Perhaps there is a team option on the 4th year which would boost it up around the $115 total figure.

Possible - Bridges walks in free agency, most likely to his hometown Detroit Pistons, Utah or another cap space team like Orlando, Toronto or Philadelphia. In this scenario Charlotte could quickly pivot and trade for John Collins into their cap space as a low cost, ready and available replacement. After all, it was Jeff Peterson who drafted Collins in Atlanta.

Unlikely - Bridges Sign and Trade to mystery "Franchise X".