ESPN BPI gives confusing prediction for Hornets vs Wizards

The computers project Charlotte to drop a third straight game to Washington.

Dec 26, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards guard Carlton Carrington (8) attempts to dunk the ball as Charlotte Hornets guard Josh Green (10) defends in the fourth quarter at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

There are very few games on the schedule where the Charlotte Hornets are considered the favorite to win, but tonight's matchup against the Washington Wizards should be one of them. The computers, however, don't see it that way.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, the Hornets have a 45.% chance to win tonight's game while the Wizards have a 54.6% chance to move to 3-0 against Charlotte this season.

Don't get me wrong, Charlotte isn't much better than the Wizards, but I'm a little baffled as to how they're not projected to win this game. It's at home; they've been extremely competitive against playoff-contending teams, and the Wizards just won a game for the first time since January 1st on Saturday. If anything, these percentages should be flipped.

Washington's recent games

Feb 1, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Washington Wizards center Jonas Valanciunas (17) celebrates his basket against the Minnesota Timberwolves with less than 20 seconds to go in the fourth quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Wizards just snapped a 16-game losing streak against the Minnesota Timberwolves over the weekend, marking just their seventh win of the season. For Washington, they're probably excited to see Charlotte pop back up on the schedule, a team they've already beaten twice this season. Before getting back in the win column, the Wizards lost by 38 to the Lakers, 24 to the Raptors, 22 to the Mavericks, 20 to the Suns, 17 to the Clippers, 23 to the Lakers, and 23 to the Kings. That's seven straight games of uncompetitive basketball.

Charlotte's recent games

Feb 1, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges (0) brings the ball up the court during the second half of play against the Denver Nuggets at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Westerholt-Imagn Images / Brian Westerholt-Imagn Images

Unlike the Wizards, the Hornets have played good basketball of late despite being shorthanded and continuing to come out on the wrong end of the scoreboard. They lost by five to the Lakers, eight to the Clippers, and three to the Nuggets, with one lopsided loss to the Nets. Charles Lee has done an excellent job of pushing all of the right buttons, considering the limited resources he has available to him.

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