Spread & over/under predictions: Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Picks for tonight's game.

Ian Black | Jan 5, 2025

Dec 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (24) drives Cleveland Cavaliers guard Ty Jerome (2) into a screen during the third quarter at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

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Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets (7-26) are on the road again Sunday, this time hosted by the surging Cleveland Cavaliers (30-4).

Charlotte has lost seventeen of their last eighteen games played coming in, with the sole win during that period coming against the Pacers back on December 8th.

On the other side, Cleveland could not be in a more different position. Since a December 8th loss to the Heat, the Cavaliers have won all nine games they’ve played by an average margin of victory of 17.3 points per game.

The Cavaliers lead the season series 2-0 coming in while having won each of the prior matchups by fourteen points.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings:

1 Star - Not very confident

2 Star - A little confident

3 Star - Fairly confident

4 Star - Very confident

5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Cavaliers -15.5

4-star play on the Cavaliers (-15.5): These teams are simply on two different planets right now. A 15.5-point spread is not something you see often at the NBA level, but in this situation, the line is absolutely warranted.

The Cavaliers are in the conversation to compete for the best regular season record in league history because of not only the talent of their roster but also the consistency.

Not only is Cleveland 13-1 since the start of December, but they have covered the spread eleven times during that period. In fact, the Cavaliers' 73.5% win rate against the spread is the best in the NBA by nearly 7%.

The Hornets are facing a buzzsaw here. The version of this Charlotte team who have shown a capability to at least cover these types of games has not been seen in quite some time.

Over/Under: 223.5

1-star play on the over: Cleveland sees their games hit the over at a league-leading 67.7%, while Charlotte is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum at an infrequent 36.4%.

The Hornets are implied 104 points with this line, which is not an unreasonable ask at first glance. A lineup without LaMelo Ball or Brandon Miller is going to have a difficult time manufacturing consistent looks, though, so look out for the health of those two before picking this line.

If the Hornets duo both are both active, the over feels decent. If one or both aren’t able to suit up though, pivoting to the under would be more than reasonable.

Ultimately, there is low confidence in a total for a game with such a large talent and momentum discrepancy. This game could be single-handedly dragged to the over by a Cleveland team that often wins by some of the largest margins in the league, so that is where I will place my one-star.