Spread & over/under predictions: Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns

Picks for tonight's Hornets game.

Ian Black | Jan 7, 2025

Dec 29, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) shoots over Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges (0) during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

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Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets (7-27) are taking a quick stop at home on Tuesday to take on the Phoenix Suns (16-18) before heading out on a five-game road trip.

Charlotte comes into the game losing more than any team in the NBA, having lost eighteen of their last nineteen games played. The defense has been surprisingly effective of late with a top-10 defensive rating over their last ten games played. Unfortunately, the offense has not had the same success with just a 101.4 offensive rating over the same time frame, the worst mark in the league by a wide margin.

On the other side, the Suns are a bit of an enigma. On the surface, there might not be a three-player core with more name value than Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. In practice, the team currently has an uphill battle to a play-in spot in the Western Conference, sitting below a Sacramento Kings team that just fired their head coach.

The state of the team was so in need of change that Devin Booker and Jusuf Nurkic were moved to bench roles ahead of Phoenix’s matchup with the Sixers yesterday. The move actually worked out fairly well, as Beal’s 25/5/3 line was one of his better performances of the season on the way to a 109-99 victory.

This is the first matchup between the two inter-conference foes this season, with the game in Phoenix set for this coming Sunday.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Suns -4.5

2-star play on the Hornets (+4.5): Despite the Hornets' struggles over the last month and half or so, the team has been a bit more competitive as of late than some may realize. Charlotte has covered three of their last four games, including covering games against the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder and the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Hornets' struggles to score have largely driven this extending losing streak. Fortunately for them, the Suns rank just 23rd in the league in defensive rating on the season, and 26th in the league over their last ten games.

The Suns are a team that should beat the Hornets on paper, but there are plenty factors working against them here. Being on the second night of a back-to-back on the road, 7-9 ATS on the road this season, 3-12 ATS after a win, and 2-7 ATS with a rest disadvantage, Phoenix looks like a reasonable candidate to allow the Hornets to cover yet again.

Confidence caps out at two stars for any bet picking the Hornets to have relative success until this losing skid is curbed, but taking a chance on Lamelo Ball and company is plenty justifiable today.

Over/Under: 221.5

4-star play on the under: Both the Hornets and the Suns have seen the under hit in their last seven games played this season respectively.

The last time the Suns scored more than their implied 113 points for this game was all the way back on December 15th against the Portland Trail Blazers' 27th-ranked defensive rating. The Hornets have topped their 109 implied points for the game just once over their last seven matchups. If that is not enough, both teams are also amongst the bottom 10 in the league in pace of play.

The under looks locked and loaded here, but confidence is a modest three stars due to the recent lineup changes for the Suns potentially changing their rhythm as a team.