Spread & Over/Under Predictions: Pacers at Hornets

Picks for tonight's matchup between Charlotte and Indiana.

Oct 17, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith (23) shoots the ball while Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (1) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The Charlotte Hornets (3-5) are home on Friday to take on the Pacers (4-4). LaMelo Ball has been in great form to start the season, sporting 28.1pts/4.8reb/6.0ast/1.5stl averages across the team’s first eight games. 

Tyrese Haliburton has proved to be a potent threat as an offensive catalyst for an intentional and effective offense on the other side. A 43-point eruption last time these teams met exemplifies the talent in the matchup of the 2020 draft class’ top point guards.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings

1 Star - Not very confident

2 Star - A little confident

3 Star - Fairly confident

4 Star - Very confident

5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Pacers -7

3-star play on the Pacers (-7): After a efficient start to the year on offense for the Hornets, the team’s scoring has slowed considerably over the last few games. The team has topped 110 points just once in their last 6 games, sporting a 2-4 record

The Pacers might just be a single game above the Hornets in the standings, but this is a much better team than the record implies. They’ve won 3-4 after a slow start, grabbing impressive victories against Boston, Dallas, and Orlando.

Lean a surging and disciplined Indiana team to cover here at the given line.

Over/Under: 234.5

2-star play on the under: When you think of a matchup between the Hornets and Pacers, offensive shootout is one of the more logical types of matchups one could expect.

Looking a little deeper though, there are a few points that leave a more dispassionate preference towards the over. Indiana and Charlotte are 7th and 23rd respectively in points per game, 12th and 19th in offensive rating, 23rd and 24th in defensive rating, and 13th and 19th in pace.

The over is still preferred, particularly with Indiana’s recent surge to a level of production more similar to last season’s historically-efficient levels. With that said, confidence is not where one might expect.

My picks this season:

ATS: 4-1 (80.0%)

O/U: 2-3 (40.0%)

Overall: 6-4 (60.0%)

Odds Disclaimer

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