What does the ESPN BPI say about the Hornets' chances against the streaking Nuggets?

A surging Jokic-led team looks like a tall task for Charlotte.

Feb 1, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) is defended by Charlotte Hornets forward Moussa Diabate (14) during the second half of play at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Westerholt-Imagn Images / Brian Westerholt-Imagn Images

The Charlotte Hornets (14-39) western road trip continues on Thursday, this time visiting Denver to take on the Nuggets (36-19). This will be the second and final matchup between these teams this season, with the Nuggets having won the first game earlier this month in a narrow 107-104 victory.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, the Hornets have just a 20.8% chance of coming away with a victory in tonight’s matchup. Three-time MVP- and current MVP frontrunner- Nikola Jokic is a nightmare matchup for this Hornets squad, making it quite clear why there is such a discrepancy in win probability between the two teams.

The Nuggets have won six straight games against the Hornets overall coming into the matchup, a testament to how strong the team has been during recent years. The last victory for Charlotte came on December 23rd, 2021.

Charlotte's recent games

Feb 19, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (1) reacts after a basket during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images / Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

The Hornets went into the All-Star break losing three in a row. A rash of injuries and some issues with the Mark Williams trade to the Lakers left the Hornets at a disadvantage against the opponents.

With the break allowing for some time for those injuries to heal and for the trades to be worked out and finalized, the Hornets got some much-needed help in their first game back… against the Los Angeles Lakers!

Reinforcements who rejoined the lineup in LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams instantly made an impact in their return. Ball put together a nice 27/6/5 with five three-pointers, and Williams added in nearly a double-double in his 29 minutes in what ended up being a 100-97 victory over the Lakers. Jusuf Nurkic, the new addition from the trade with Phoenix, also chipped in a scoreless eight rebounds, seven assists, and 3 stocks off of the bench.

Denver's recent games

Feb 15, 2025; Oakland, CA, USA; Chuck’s Global Stars center Nikola Jokic (15) of the Denver Nuggets warms up during the NBA All Star-Practice at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The Nuggets are on their longest win streak of the season coming into tonight’s game, having won their last eight contests. During those eight games, the Nuggets are beating teams by an average margin of victory of 13.1 points per game.

The real power behind the recent success of the Nuggets comes on the offensive end. While the team has had a middling 113.4 defensive rating during the win streak, the offensive rating of 129.4 points per 100 possessions. For reference, the highest offensive rating a team has ever achieved over the course of an entire season was the 2023-24 Celtics, with 123.2 points per 100 possessions. 

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