Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat Game Preview
Game 13: Charlotte Hornets (3-9) vs Miami Heat (4-7)
The Charlotte Hornets hung around in a tough match up with Portland last night, having a chance in the final frame to stop their losing streak at five games. In the end, they were unable to do so as the streak grew to six games ahead of a trip to Miami to play the defending Eastern conference regular season champions. Last night's game followed a similar script, the Hornets start off playing pretty well and even lead for a portion of the first half but are unable to hold it until the end. It makes sense given the star power the team is without due to injuries to Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball that they just don't quite have enough to put away solid NBA teams in crunch time. It is still uncertain as to when either of those two players will return to the court, and that doesn't even consider the time Cody Martin has missed and the toll that has taken on Charlotte's perimeter defense. With a back court as talented as Anfernee Simons and Damian Lillard, it would have been really helpful to have a guy like Martin to help Dennis Smith Jr try to slow them down. The two scored a combined 45 points in Wednesday's game and dished out 13 total assists.
The Hornets just didn't have the horses to keep up in this one, as their bench unit was outplayed pretty noticeably. The starters actually did a really nice job for Charlotte in keeping the game close and competitive, but the bench couldn't do the same. They are relying on so many of their would be bench players in their starting lineup currently, so it's not surprising that the current iteration of their bench is struggling to keep up. If and when Ball, Hayward and Martin return from injury, you would expect this to become an area of improvement. The challenge on Thursday night in Miami won't get any easier as the Heat have an extremely deep, veteran laid roster that will really make it tough of a young Charlotte squad. The bench unit could struggle again in this one as the Heat have multiple veteran players they can rely on to give their key players a break.
The good news is that this Heat team actually isn't as deep as it was a season ago, and they are off to a shaky start to this season. Jimmy Butler is having his usual fantastic start as he is average almost 20 points, six rebounds and six assists per game. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are also pouring in points at a pretty efficient rate. The Hornets may need to rely on more PJ Washington at the center spot against Miami to help slow down Adebayo and what the Heat like to do on offense. Adebayo isn't much of a back to the basket kind of big as he likes to be out and space and use his athleticism to get easy baskets. Mason Plumlee will be at a severe disadvantage going up against him for long stretches, so I would expect to see Washington and Richards get most of that match up.
Most Important Area to Watch
Aside from bench minutes, the Hornets still need to improve on their offensive creation without LaMelo Ball if they want to get back in the win column. They shot just 25% from three on Wednesday and 37.4% from the floor in total. The Blazers had seven more assists than Charlotte as they shot an efficient 53.3% from the floor. This lack of creation is a direct link to the poor shooting that has plagued the Hornets in recent games with a plethora of tough, contested jumpers missing the mark. Jalen McDaniels was the only player off the bench to record an assist, and that just isn't going to cut it against a team as good defensively as the Heat. I would look for them to record at least 25 assists on Thursday night if they are going to get a win in Miami. Charlotte will need to use it's youth and athleticism in transition to keep this one close as they just don't have the shot makers or rim pressure to be effective against the Heat's half court defense. If the Hornets are out running early and often, the assists numbers should be better and they should be getting much better looks at the rim than they have in recent games.
2022-2023 Team Stats
Points Per Game
CHA- 107.9
MIA- 108.0
FIeld Goal %
CHA- 43.7%
MIA- 45.0%
Assists Per Game
CHA- 26.1
MIA- 24.7
Rebounds Per Game
CHA- 45.6
MIA- 40.2
Charlotte's 2022-2023 Active Individual Stat Leaders:
Points Per Game: Terry Rozier (22.8)
Assists Per Game: Dennis Smith Jr (6.2)
Rebounds Per Game: Mason Plumlee (8.3)
Blocks Per Game: PJ Washington (1.4)
Washington's 2022-2023 Active Individual Stat Leaders:
Points Per Game: Jimmy Butler (20.9)
Assists Per Game: Kyle Lowry (5.8)
Rebounds Per Game: Bam Adebayo (8.1)
Blocks Per Game: Bam Adebayo (0.9)
Spread & Over/Under Picks:
Spread: Heat -10.5
Miami is coming into this one as heavy favorites against this young, depleted Hornets roster. Charlotte is in the midst of a six game losing streak and still without their best player, LaMelo Ball all while coming into the second night of a back-to-back traveling to Miami. All of this coupled with the fact that the Heat have had the Hornet's number in recent seasons should have you thinking that laying the points with Miami is probably the smart option. There is definitely a scenario where the Hornets keep this one close as Miami isn't off to the hottest of starts, but the deck seems to be stacked against Charlotte Thursday night.
Over/Under: 216.5 points
The Miami Heat have had one of the strongest defenses in the NBA in recent seasons, and they have given Charlotte real trouble the last few years. The Hornets are in the middle of some real offensive struggles, and I'm not sure this is the spot in which they will break out of it. Getting out and running in transition will be the easiest way to put up points against the tough Miami half-court defense, but the Heat are too talented and experienced to allow the Hornets to beat them that way. Given all of that, I would say that the under is probably a good play here.
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