Mock Trade Negotiation: John Collins

Mock Trade Negotiation: John Collins

In this SI “Mock Trade” article series All Hornets site content manager James Plowright will be conducting various trade negotiations with journalists who cover other NBA teams in an effort to upgrade Charlotte’s roster via trade. Pat Benson of SI's All Hawks plays the role of General Manager for the Atlanta Hawks as James enquires about potential availability of Hawks forward John Collins.

JP I appreciate you stepping up to play the role of Hawks key decisions maker Travis Sch... Wait, I now mean Landry Fields as he was appointed in late December 2022 with Schlenk being moved into an "Advisory" capacity. After failing to trade for O.G. Anunoby in my previous mock trade negotiation, I've moved my sites onto other targets ahead of the Feb 9th deadline. With the Miles Bridges' situation still in limbo and PJ Washington's impending restricted free agency, Charlotte's power forward position looks uncertain, enter John Collins.

From the outside Collins is someone who has been rumored to be unhappy in Atlanta and has regularly come up in trade talk. How would you currently describe the Collins situation, is he as available as media reports seem to suggest?

PB I don't think Collins is unhappy. He is a blue-collar player who grew up as a military brat, so you never hear him complain. But he is certainly available for trade, as proven by three years of trade rumors. I am confident that Collins will finally be traded this time at the Feb. 9 trade deadline. Charlotte certainly makes an interesting potential trade partner.

JP Good to know he hasn't been a locker room distraction despite the tribulations Atlanta have been through these past two seasons.

I think Collins could be a good fit in Charlotte mainly due to his ability to play in the screen and roll with LaMelo Ball. I've checked the numbers and over the last four seasons Collins averages 1.3 points per possession as the pick and roll big man on a 20% frequency rate. Those are better numbers than anyone the Hornets have managed to pair with LaMelo over the past three seasons. Collins is a solid defender against opposing power forwards, although has struggled against centers when tried as a small ball center. 

The big question for me is his shooting which has fallen off a cliff this year, but I'm hopeful that's an anomaly after starting the season with an injury and he will get back to his career averages. 

Would you agree with my assessment of Collins? Is there anything else Hornets fans should know which I skipped over?

When it comes to Collins trade value, what do you think Atlanta are looking for? 

PB That is a very solid assessment of Collins' game. One last thing I would add is that every off season, he adds a new piece to his game (defense, passing, and outside shooting). Recently, I saw a report that Atlanta is looking for a mega haul in return for Collins. That is laughable, mostly because they have driven down his trade value. 

The main reason Atlanta will offload Collins is to skirt the luxury tax and replenish their draft capital. In return, they will want a future first round draft pick and a serviceable replacement. A few weeks ago, I half-joked that Atlanta would trade Collins to Charlotte for a protected first-rounder, Mason Plumlee, and Kelly Oubre Jr. Hawks fans would revolt if that happened. How would Hornets fans react to that trade?"

JP For any team as bad as the Hornets are, trading away a future 1st rounder is always a risky play. Especially with already owing a protected 1st round pick from the Kai Jones trade to San Antonio which makes it more difficult to trade other futures 1sts. However, I think the team would understandably be happy to move on from Plumlee and Oubre with their impending free agency, so it is tempting.

Instead of the 1st, is there any way Atlanta might be interested in PJ Washington? That also gives Atlanta someone who can step in and help this year, as well as holding his restricted free agency rights this summer. PJ is a better shooter than his percentages suggest this year and would likely be a much more efficient player in a catch and shoot role next to Trae Young.

PB Atlanta would love a player of P.J. Washington's caliber. Unfortunately, as you pointed out, Washington is going to get paid soon. The whole reason Atlanta is shopping Collins (and to a lesser extent Capela) is to make room for Onyeka Okongwu's upcoming extension and Dejounte Murray's deal the following summer.

JP Understood. So how does this deal look?  

PB Not only am I shaking your hand, I'm not letting go until the league office approves the deal.

JP Wow, then I think we have a deal then. If it had been one of Charlotte's 1st round picks I would have been against a deal, but the Denver 2023 1st will likely be in the 25-30 range and is already likely to be traded at this years draft. Following this trade Charlotte would immediately look to move PJ Washington in a separate move, maybe even for another late 1st to a playoff team to help recoup some value.

There were three key reasons I decided to agree to this deal:

1) The increasing salary cap after the new TV deal in 2024. People around the league expect average salaries to go up, despite Collins' $24-26 per year looking a tad expensive now it will be much more palatable in a few years.

2) A John Collins bounce back. Between the stylistic challenges in Atlanta with Trae Young and some nagging hand and ankle injuries, I think Collins could flourish in another environment. For a team like Charlotte, they need to take these kinds of risks on stock down players as they're unlikely ever going to be able to attain guys who are at the peak of their value.

3) Saving Charlotte from venturing into Free Agency. Mitch Kupchak's last few major acquisitions in Free Agency have resulted; Gordon Hayward 4 years $120, Timofey Mozgov 4 years $64, Luol Deng 4 years $72. By being in Charlotte this also means you have to pay over the odds for free agents, that's why Nic Batum ended up getting paid and eventually stretched. All Charlotte seem to do with large amounts of CAP space is make mistakes, so getting a solid start in Collins locked in helps give you a foundational piece without needing to enter into free agency.

Is there anything else you want to add from an Atlanta point of view?

PB I think you hit the nail on the head. The trade accomplishes most of Atlanta's main objectives; cap flexibility, draft picks, and, finally, moving on from John Collins.

JP Well Pat, thanks a lot for joining in on this exercise. Let’s see how the trade market plays out ahead of February 9th and if Collins is eventually moved.

Think we’re good to finish on that. Thanks a lot for helping out, always exciting when we find a deal. Good to be linked up, stay in touch 

PB Yes sir, thank you!