Projecting The Charlotte Hornets 2024 Free Agency Spending Power

Will Charlotte have cap space or function as an over the cap team?

Apr 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges (0) looks on / Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports

Projecting Charlotte's 2024 cap space situation this off-season is particularly difficult this year due to major question marks hanging over the franchise.. There's uncertainty around unrestricted free agent Miles Bridges, veteran Davis Bertans has a $16 million contract with only $5.25 million guaranteed and several non-guaranteed contracts and team options for rotation players Seth Curry, Aleksej Pokusevski, Bryce McGowens and JT Thor. What Charlotte choose to do with all these decisions dictates their spending power in free agency.

In an effort to help understand the different options available, this article will outline three different scenarios. To ensure my understanding of the CBA and salary cap were accurate I checked in with the ever knowledgeable @mcley. Trades could change the dynamics outlined here, but for the purpose of this article I have assumed no other major moves take place before free agency.

1. Bring Everyone Back

In this scenario Miles Bridges is re-signed. Even if his new contract is above his $15 million cap hold, his new salary figure won't count toward's Charlotte's salary cap until he officially signs it. That would likely result in Bridges signing his contract to be one of the last options of the off-season to give Charlotte added flexibility this summer.

In this scenario Charlotte would carry 16 players into training camp, with one cut to get down to the 15 roster limit. I projected that to be JT Thor in this scenario as his team option date is October 1st. Ultimately, who the team select at #6 could have an impact on which of Charlotte's back-end roster players end up being the final cut.

This puts Charlotte just $1.3 million below the salary cap. However, In real terms they would still operate as an over the cap team. This is due to the available exceptions, which when combined with the team's cap holds add up over the salary cap. In Charlotte's case, the available exceptions are the Mid-Level Exception (MLE $12.8) and Bi-Annual Exception (BAE $4.6) which haven't been used in recent seasons.

2. Move On, Maximum Flexibility

In this scenario, Charlotte, lose a starter in Bridges and five rotation players but open up $33.1 million in cap space. Due to Charlotte dropping below 12 contracted players (Down to 10), league rules would add two minimum cap holds using $2 million in additional cap space (See row 17). In terms of exceptions, they would lose the use of the full MLE and BAE due to being under the cap and would instead would have use of the room exception ($8 million). Operating as an under the cap team doesn't make sense unless Bridges were to leave in free agency.

Would Charlotte be able to upgrade the five vacant roster spots with $33.1 million and the room exception? That could be a challenge in what is considered a weak free agency class in a market with an improving, but still poor reputation among NBA players.

3. Walking The Middle Path

This feels like the most likely path forward for the Hornets. It's similar to "Bring Everyone Back" option, but instead includes waiving Davis Bertans and then using his roster spot to sign a free agent with the full MLE. Do DeAnthony Melton, Jonas Valancunis, Buddy Hield, Caleb Martin or Gary Trent Jr interest you? As that's likely the level of player achievable with the MLE.

Venturing into free agency would signal a change of intent from the new ownership, but is now the right time? Similar to option one, Charlotte would operate as an over the cap team in this situation.

It is possible to retain Bertans, spend the full MLE and remain $20 million below the tax line. However, that would require Charlotte moving on from at least one more player in order to make another roster spot for the incoming free agent. That could be through not picking up a guarantee on one of McGowens, Curry or Pokusevski, or moving someone in a trade for draft capital with no player contract coming back in return.

Overall, Charlotte have multiple paths available from them. From operating with near max cap space if Bridges leaves, to functioning as an over the cap team and competing with other teams chasing MLE level free agents. Reports suggest Bridges is more likely to return if not, which makes the over the cap possibility appear the more likely outcome.