Spread and over/under predictions for Hornets vs. Heat

How will Charlotte fare in an early season matchup against a division rival?

Oct 8, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Tidjane Salaun (31) brings the ball up court after a steal against the Miami Heat during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Hornets (1-1) are back home on Saturday night for the second night of a back-to-back, this time hosting the division rival Miami Heat (0-1) at the Spectrum Center as Terry Rozier returns to Charlotte.

Below are my picks for tonight’s showdown:

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Heat -4.5

3-star play on the Heat (-4.5): Charlotte has brought some life over the course of their two first games that were hard to come by for the team last season. Now-healthy star LaMelo Ball has been especially hot, scoring exactly 34 points on 10-20 shooting in the games against both Houston and Atlanta.

On the other side, the Heat were trounced in their opening game against an energetic Orlando team. In that game, Miami and Orlando were comparable in most statistical categories, but Miami specifically fell short in both securing defensive rebounds and limiting three-point shooting volume which resulted in the 19-point loss.

With that said, Charlotte will be without two key starters on Saturday night in Brandon Miller (glute) and Mark Williams (foot) on the second night of this early season back-to-back. The better-rested Miami squad will be missing Kevin Love and possibly Josh Richardson, but key starters like Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and former Hornets guard Terry Rozier will be around to make life difficult for a short-handed Charlotte squad.

At first glance, LaMelo Ball and Tre Mann leading a successful perimeter game would be the easiest way for Charlotte to remain competitive here with Nick Richards left primarily matched up with all-star center Bam Adebayo. That is easier said than done though when you consider that the Heat only allowed opponents to shoot 35.4% on three-pointers last season, good for the seventh-best percentage allowed in the league.

Lean on Miami’s health, rest, experience, and physicality here to cover here. Confidence is only fair though due to the general volatility of early-season matchups plus an extremely flat performance by Miami in the opener.

Over/Under: 223.5

3-star play on the under: Both teams have been bottom-10 in the league in pace in an albeit microscopic sample size, Charlotte is on the second night of a back-to-back, and Brandon Miller is one of the Hornets' primary offensive initiators. There are plenty of players on both sides capable of an offensive performance that could tip the scales here, but on average the under seems pretty juicy for this specific matchup.

My picks last season:

ATS: 10-6 (62.5%)

O/U: 6-10 (37.5%)

Overall: 16-16 (50.0%)

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