Spread & Over/Under Predictions: Hawks at Hornets

Picks for tonight's match between Charlotte and Atlanta.

Oct 25, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) makes a pass against Charlotte Hornets guard Vasilije Micic (22) and guard LaMelo Ball (1) during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images / Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Charlotte is looking to snap a four-game losing skid heading into the matchup. Decimated by injuries, the Hornets are desperate for any of LaMelo Ball, Tre Mann, Mark Williams, Nick Richards, or Miles Bridges- all listed as questionable for the matchup- to rejoin the team and get the season back on track.

Atlanta is feeling really great about themselves coming into this one after back-to-back big wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With the Cavaliers sitting at 17-1 going into the matchups, the Hawks now have more wins against the team with the NBA’s best record than the rest of the league combined.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Hawks -4.5

2-star play on the Hawks (-4.5): The Hawks and their rapid-paced, disruptive, and efficient brand of basketball are a tough matchup for Charlotte. While the Hawks like to run and spread the ball around to a deep rotation of talented players, the Hornets play at one of the league’s slowest paces and heavily funnel their entire offense through superstar point guard LaMelo Ball.

The Hawks can give the league’s best squads a run for their money on any given night, but they are not the most consistent team. 2-3 over their last five games, all of those matchups had double-digit margins of victory. This explains why the line is only favoring the Hawks by 4.5 points given the injury woes of a decimated Hornets team.

As of this writing, it is unclear which of Charlotte’s key rotation pieces will be available for the game. For that reason alone, confidence will be quite low for this pick. With that said, this matchup seems to prefer Atlanta regardless of health.

Over/Under: 225

3-star play on the under: Another line that is largely affected by who is available for the Hornets tonight, this line is not for the faint of heart. With that said, neither the Hornets nor their opponents have broken 100 points over their last three games, a testament to the pace and play style of a team simply trying to stay afloat. Fewer possessions for each team implies more variance, which provides an advantage to an outmatched squad.

Both teams are also on the second night of a back-to-back after intense NBA Cup games, so legs are sure to be more tired than they otherwise might be.

The under is the preference here despite the high-octane nature of Atlanta’s usual matchups. The healthier the Hornets are come game-time though, the more this one leans towards the over.

My picks this season:

ATS: 10-3 (76.9%)

O/U: 7-6 (53.9%)

Overall: 17-9 (65.4%)

Odds Disclaimer

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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