Spread & Over/Under Predictions: Heat at Hornets

Picks for tonight's matchup between Miami and Charlotte.

Oct 26, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Tidjane Salaun (31) looks to pass against Miami Heat guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11) during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Nell Redmond-Imagn Images / Nell Redmond-Imagn Images

The Hornets (6-11) host the second of five-straight home games tonight, this time matching up against the division rival Miami Heat (7-8).

Charlotte is looking to snap a two-game losing skid heading into the matchup. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller have been on fire as of late, but the team has been decimated by injuries to multiple starters and rotation players.

Help might be on the way soon with Mark Williams and Nick Richards being designated to the Greensboro Swarm for their rehab assignments, but until then the front court will be looking thin.

On the other side, the Heat are looking to get back to .500 after falling in a close matchup against the Bucks last night in Miami. Despite being on pace for a record worse than last season’s 46-36, Miami’s currently held sixth seed in the Eastern Conference is actually higher than the eighth seed they finished with last season. 

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings:

1 Star - Not very confident

2 Star - A little confident

3 Star - Fairly confident

4 Star - Very confident

5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Heat -3.5

4-star play on the Heat (-3.5): For the game on Monday against the Magic, this article stated that it would be irresponsible to pick the Hornets as 6 -point underdogs while missing Miles Bridges, Tre Mann, Mark Williams, Nick Richards, DaQuan Jeffries, and Grant Williams.

The Heat aren’t quite as solid as the Magic right now and have the rest disadvantage having played last night, but that does not change the fact that the Hornets 'rotation is decimated by injuries at the moment.

Picking the Hornets wouldn’t be irresponsible this time around, but that does not mean it would be an advisable pick here. 

Over/Under: 218.5 

3-star play on the under: Asking LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller to drag this roster to their 108 implied points tonight against a team just outside of the top-10 in the NBA in defensive rating seems like a tough ask. Add in that Miami is one of the slower-paced teams in the league playing on the second night of a back-to-back and that Charlotte just put up 84 points against Orlando, and the under feels pretty fine here. 

My picks this season:

ATS: 9-3 (75.0%)

O/U: 6-6 (50.0%)

Overall: 15-9 (62.5%)

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