Spread & Over/Under Predictions: Hornets at Bucks

Picks for tonight's matchup between Charlotte and Milwaukee.

Nov 16, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (1) drives to the basket guarded by Milwaukee Bucks guard Andre Jackson Jr. (44) during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Hornets (6-9) are taking a quick trip to Milwaukee on Saturday to take on the Buck (7-9) before an upcoming five-game homestand. 

Charlotte is looking to win a second straight game behind the power of star point guard LaMelo Ball after a 35-point game against the Pistons on Thursday. Now in his fifth season in the NBA, Ball’s career-high 28.9 points per game is the fifth-highest mark in the league. 

The Bucks have a premier scorer in their own right in former MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and his league-leading 32.4 points per game. After a slow start to the season, Antetokounmpo has led the Bucks to a win in five of their last six games. The only loss over that period? The Hornets last Saturday in a 115-114 nail-biter.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Bucks -7.5

2-star play on the Hornets (+7.5): The Hornets are an impressive 9-5 against the spread as underdogs this season, including a win last Saturday where the Bucks were 3.5 point favorites. Vegas seems to continue to underrate the scrappy nature of the Hornets under first-year coach Charles Lee.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is only 4-4-1 ATS as the home team this season, as well as 0-2-1 when playing with no rest as they are tonight. Giannis put up an incredible 37-11-10 line in 35 minutes last night against the Pacers, but having the stamina to put up a similar performance would be quite the load to carry.

Milwaukee is not the best matchup in the world for Charlotte- particularly with a thinned frontcourt- but 7.5 points is plenty of room to play for a Charlotte team eager to solidify their place in the Eastern Conference’s playoff race.

Over/Under: 223.5 

2-star play on the over: After seven straight games hitting the under to begin the month, the Hornets have seen the over hit in four straight games. This has coincided with the Hornets 'improvements on defense, where they’ve gone from dead-last in the NBA in defensive rating to a 19th-ranked 114.8 rating.

The game last weekend between the two teams hit the over and is over this game’s line by 5.5 points. Milwaukee is hot right now, and defensive legs are not rested on either side. 

Expecting the Hornets to ride this streak of hitting overs for much longer would be ill-advised as regression to the mean is sure to hit at some point soon. With that said, the factors going into Saturday’s matchup seem to open enough doors for the streak to carry at least one game longer.

My picks this season:

ATS: 7-3 (70.0%)

O/U: 4-6 (40.0%)

Overall: 11-9 (55.0%)

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