Spread & over/under predictions: Magic at Hornets

Picks for tonight's matchup between Orlando and Charlotte,

Nov 12, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (1) drives to the basket as Orlando Magic guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (3) defends during the first quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Charlotte Hornets (6-10) kick off a five-game homestand on Monday, starting by hosting the division rival Orlando Magic (11-7).

Charlotte’s homestand opponents will be comprised of the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 14th teams in the standings in the Eastern Conference, so starting off on the right foot and grabbing as many wins as possible now will be paramount to a playoff push later in the season.

LaMelo Ball is, of course coming off of his scorching 50pt/10ast/5reb game against the Bucks on Saturday. Now up to third in the NBA in points per game at 30.2, Ball is cementing himself as one of the premier offensive threats in the league this season.

The Magic enter the matchup on a two-game win streak and are looking to extend. If the early season has been any indication, this is a dangerous and young Magic team that is sure to be a tough matchup nightly.

With former first-overall pick Paolo Banchero out with injury, the Magic turn to the power of promising players like Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Anthony Black.

Wagner in particular has become a do-it-all threat, averaging 23.6pts/5.8reb/5.6ast per game as the primary initiator for much of Orlando’s success so far this season.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Magic -6

5-star play on the Magic (-6): The Magic are coming to town at a rough time for the Hornets. Normally, when you play the team with the third-best record in the conference who won by 25 points in a matchup earlier in the month, being at full strength would be ideal.

Instead, the Hornets will be without Mark Williams (foot), Miles Brides (knee), DaQuan Jeffries (hand), Tre Mann (back), Nick Richards (ribs), and of course, Grant Williams, who tore his ACL over the weekend and will miss the remainder of the season. 

Frankly, the line just does not reflect the deficit the Hornets face. Even with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller healthy and playing well, that’s just too many bodies -particularly in the front court- missing to match up with a lengthy and talented Orlando squad. Suggesting anything other than taking the Magic at this line would be irresponsible.

Over/Under: 213.5 

1-star play on the under: As high as the confidence rating is on the spread, the over/under is a different story. The Hornets got absolutely trounced the last time these teams met and the total of that game was only 203.

The circumstance looks to point towards that potentially reoccurring, but at the same time, 104 implied points really aren’t that many for a team with superstar scorer LaMelo Ball.

Staying away from this line with so much injury variance would be advised in this situation. Leaning towards the under due to the sheer lack of bodies is an absolutely justifiable stance to take though.

My picks this season:

ATS: 8-3 (72.7%)

O/U: 5-6 (45.5%)

Overall: 13-9 (59.0%)

Odds Disclaimer

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