Walking the Tightrope: Jeff Peterson's Narrow Path To a Successful Season

Peterson inherits a tricky situation heading into the 2024-25 season

Jeff Peterson Greeting Grant Williams /

The Charlotte Hornets' fanbase is hungry for success. With both the Panthers and Hornets struggling in recent years, positive vibes have been scarce. The fresh energy within the Hornets organization has been warmly welcomed, but VP of Basketball Operations Jeff Peterson faces a challenging decision: win, but not too much.

The Hornets owe their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, having originally sent it to New York as part of the Kai Jones trade (yikes). The silver lining is that the pick is lottery-protected, meaning the Hornets will keep it if they finish outside the playoffs (not just the play-in). This protection is especially crucial for the 2025 draft, which features generational talent Cooper Flagg, along with at least five other players who, according to Sam Vecenie, would have been selected first overall in the 2024 draft.

According to Las Vegas' projected win total of 29.5, retaining the pick shouldn't be an issue for Charlotte. However, if Vegas are indeed correct, would Hornets fans be satisfied with another sub-30 win season? Their patience has been worn thin, and they expect significant progress. Another injury-plagued season won't be a justifiable excuse anymore, even if valid. Neither winning or losing to an extreme level appear optimal, leaving a very narrow path of "absolute" success, which looks something like this:

Starting the season strong and contending for a playoff spot would be a good start for the Hornets. Taking a page out of Danny Ainge's playbook, the team could make moves similar to the Utah Jazz: trading away older veterans at the trade deadline for valuable assets, then focusing on the development of young players to close out the season. This strategy could secure an 11th or 12th place finish in the East, with 32-36 wins and the 6th-9th best lottery odds.

"We will be patient owners who are committed to building our team the right way. There will be no easy fixes and we appreciate that this will take a lot of hard work from a lot of people. We are focused on developing the right processes and structure for sustainable success. We promise we’ll do all we can to make the most thoughtful decisions for the long-term health of the franchise."

- Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin

In this scenario, the team's stars would have established themselves, veterans would have excelled in their roles, and young players would have shown significant progress. Straying from this narrow path risks either alienating the fanbase or undermining the team's future potential.

One counter to the argument that making the playoffs would be a negative is that if the Hornets did reach the postseason, it would signify that their young stars, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, have performed at an All-Star level. In this case, the team might not "need" another young lottery talent.

The Hornets haven't made the post-season since Al Jefferson's All-NBA season in 2016 /

Recent examples of young teams making surprising single-season jumps include Orlando, Oklahoma City, and Indiana. These teams have proven that missing out on a top 5 pick hasn't hindered their progress. If the Hornets can emulate this trajectory, the excitement and momentum from a playoff appearance could outweigh the benefits of retaining a lottery pick.

Each fan's view on this waivers. Season ticket holders and die hards who live and die with every win or loss (Mostly die) will be willing to sacrifice a 1st round pick for a season of success. Those who are more distant and strategic in their fandom will likely prefer to take the "Optimal" route of keeping the pick and pushing forward in 2025. The moves made this summer and the tone of ownership suggests the team leans more towards a patient approach. But how would the fan base react to a mid-season tank job after starting the season with a taste of success? That could be a bitter pill to swallow.

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